ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cheezyWXguy]

perhaps they did not have a good initialization point , since the center appears to be 20.5 78.6

Well, the NHC is turning the storm north quicker than most, if not all, models on the page above. I think a track similar to the ukmet looks most likely. Though Im beginning to doubt its intensification chances. It looks way worse than I was expecting it to look by this time.

[Sanibel]

Close-in ULL's tend to be more inhibitive. Intensity is a total question mark due to land proximity and the nearby ULL.

[jlauderdal]

I thought that surface feature was a satellite vortex it looked so weak. If that is the center it has increased in forward speed and is well displaced. This will stay weak for now. Which adds to the problem of underestimating Fay once it gets that ULL to its SW over the Gulf Stream.

Are you thinking that Fay may just yet be a stronger than forecast TS/Hurricane at this point when Fay makes it's SW/W Florida landfall...?

a 2/3 is certainly not out of the question...i have 50 gallons of gas just in case,if i dont use it the car will...been down this raod too many times with track and intensity, be ready is all i can say to my fellow floridians, anyone in the state has a decent chance of getting effects

[cpdaman]

Convection is increasing near the LLC. Still nothing close to what Fay looked like earlier this morning around 3 AM.

you mentioned the mass that moved off jamaica as possibly inhibiting inflow, do you think the southerly inflow or convection will be on the increase again soon, or is it still inhibited by that mass In your opinion.

[Blown Away]

Fay looks to be improving rate now, must like those warm waters.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Great Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170215.GIF

[johngaltfla]

Ok seems to me with a small hurricane wind field it looks like again tampa will dodge a bullet. the shield remains in place. it will barely be a cat 1 if that. like i said just an inconvenient storm for my area. sorry sanibel a little more serious for you down there.

IF you are wrong and it does ride the ridge up the coastline your neck of the woods will get the worse. Keep in mind the storm had been predicted at many points to head up towards the Big Bend area. I would review my plans at a minimum.

Well i live 10 miles east from the coast of hernando beach. I rent a room from my landlady who guess what has no plywood or storm shutters. But that is ok. I will be called to hang out at the hospital where i work if a hurricane comes. if its a ts then i can just work my regular shift. I know things can change on a dime but this is too predictable and goes against the odds of the riding straight up the coast. There is a reason the models are shifting east which is more typical. So I am minimally prepared but I am far from feeling like this is going to be a big deal for my area. After it crosses cuba then I will let you all know if my gut feeling is accurate or deceiving me.

Just an FYI. I had a lot of friends who thought Charlie was going to miss them in Charlotte Harbor also based on "gut feelings".

They have yet to move back to Florida as they were so terrified they swore they would never return. It is best to listen to the watches and warnings and prepare accordingly. Right now, you are in the clear. 24 hours from now, you could have little if any time to prepare.

[deltadog03]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

[Sanibel]

Fay's been under island shadow for 48 hours. It's too close to Cuba, even though it is over water right now. What spooks me is that donut ghost seen in the surface circulation. Looks to me like energy that just needs stacking over the Gulf Stream to quickly come together once it gets clear of island shadow.

[CronkPSU]

I thought that surface feature was a satellite vortex it looked so weak. If that is the center it has increased in forward speed and is well displaced. This will stay weak for now. Which adds to the problem of underestimating Fay once it gets that ULL to its SW over the Gulf Stream.

Are you thinking that Fay may just yet be a stronger than forecast TS/Hurricane at this point when Fay makes it's SW/W Florida landfall...?

a 2/3 is certainly not out of the question...i have 50 gallons of gas just in case,if i dont use it the car will...been down this raod too many times with track and intensity, be ready is all i can say to my fellow floridians, anyone in the state has a decent chance of getting effects

until it gets stacked up, I think anything above a cat 1 is HIGHLY doubtful, time is running out now since it will be interacting at least somewhat with land basically the rest of its lifespan

[robbielyn]

you are just being honest....and no doubt you are not alone in what you wrote.

i found the experience of wilma...which gave my area cat1/cat2 winds fascinating...by that i mean the actual extreme weather conditions....but the aftermath is horrendous. No power for 2 weeks...there was nothing at all remotely interesting or exciting about the 14 day aftermath of an utterly awesome monday morning (plus the $12,000 condo assessment made it a very costly few hours!)

not west toward the coast way west toward the panhandle. this isn't a huge system if it hits pc or points west we could get dry sinking air over our area. there is just way too much uncertainty i am keeping a close eye on it because it's my hobby. but i get discouraged (a part of me does) when we can't seem to get a hurricane here. (the sane part of me will be relieved if it misses us) I guess it's just the idea of it. I would not be at all surprised that if it were to ride up the coast, it would be a ts we have had that plenty of times before so i am not ruling out the possibility of a n track just a n track and a hurricane at the same time and no I don't wish for a cat 4 or 5 either just want to see a little flying debris thats all. If all its going to do is rain then we get those here everyday. I'd rather have sunshine and go to beach

Thank you for that comment I am just being honest in reality, a hurricane would inconvenience me more than a ts because i would be stuck doing at least a double shift if the hurricane activation happens for our area so in reality I don't want this to be a huricane. It's just a part of me enjoys the excitement of strong winds. I was in hurricane kate jeane and frances and all three were either misses or after the landfall so I haven't been devasted by them hence the reason for my wanting one. I don't want devastation i want a little action thats all and i cant control what happens anyway and my heart goes out to people who have been devastated. I hear tell it once you been devasted your completely cured of wanting to ever see another one. i still think it's going to hit sanibel and go ne though

[ekal]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I like what I see this afternoon, although preparedness is still important for everyone within the forecast cone (as always).

As many have noted today, the LLC and MLC of Fay appear to have temporarily decoupled due to the passage of the system over the extremely mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. I would be surprised to see any significant intensification today, and I expect that it will take at least 18 hours for Fay to begin to stack again, now that it is moving over water. Note, however, that the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, home to mountains well over 8,000 feet, will severely impede the southern inflow of this system, further slowing the intensification process.

Once the system begins to clear Haiti and approach Cuba, I believe a small window for modest intensification will exist. However, I do not see Fay becoming a hurricane as it approaches Cuba. The system has been too disrupted and will still be subject to land interaction, particularly as it approaches more mountainous terrain in the southeastern tip of Cuba (6,000+ feet). IMHO, no more than 50 knots at landfall in Central Cuba (still a major disruption, however). There, a few mountain peaks of 3500+ feet exist -- enough to cause some weakening and disruption, although transit time over this area is expected to be brief.

If Fay does indeed follow the forecast track, it then has, at best, 24 good hours over the warm waters of the Florida Straits after emerging Central Cuba. I do not see this being enough time for strengthening to hurricane status, although it cannot be ruled out. I am going to stick adamantly to my expectation yesterday that this storm will be no more than 45-60 knots for SW Florida.

Admittably, if Fay gets out over the warm Gulf waters and heads farther north than, say, Fort Myers, all bets are off.

My thinking has not changed much from yesterday. Due to land interaction and some light southwesterly to westerly shear that is forecast by the GFS to continue affecting Fay through tomorrow, I expect 45 knots at landfall in Cuba and 55 knots at landfall in SW FL.

[cpdaman]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

sorry i just don't see it

also fay appears still steady WNW now

[johngaltfla]

Thanks for that loop Hurrakan. I dropped that link out of my bookmarks. She's starting to look better in that loop, unfortunately.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fay is starting to look much better on satellite. Nice banding is developing all around the storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Fay is starting to look much better on satellite. Nice banding is developing all around the storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

At the same time it looks like her LLC is outracing her convection...

[Steve Cosby]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

There is certainly activity down there but the low level winds out of it seem to be flowing northeast.

It almost looks like that area is rotating the opposite direction(?)

[deltadog03]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

[NDG]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

I see nothing more than an area of convergence, the same one that was over Jamaica during the night which the topography of Jamaica helped it stay alive, but now that Fay is moving along is is staying behind and convection starting to die down, I alreay see inflow on the north side of this convection starting to take place towards Fay.

[cpdaman]

Fay is starting to look much better on satellite. Nice banding is developing all around the storm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

ya once she get's some deep southerly inflow going i think we will see a ramp up .....but i think she's still got some organizing to do......so long as that blob west of jamaica didn't pull a "how did it do that"