Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Evil Jeremy]

Dr Lyon's mentioned Naples/Ft Myers for landfall.

He also said that dry air is influencing the storm, and that the highest sustained winds were "12". He is giving people a false sense of security IMO.

[Jason_B]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

This is not Katrina, Fay is already starting to pull to the north, NHC's track is right on.

[sunny]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

This is not Katrina, Fay is already starting to pull to the north, NHC's track is right on.

Is she? According to the 8 am advisory she is moving W-NW.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

This is not Katrina, Fay is already starting to pull to the north, NHC's track is right on.

Is she? According to the 8 am advisory she is moving W-NW.

Pulling north of west, which is WNW.

[Jason_B]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

This is not Katrina, Fay is already starting to pull to the north, NHC's track is right on.

Is she? According to the 8 am advisory she is moving W-NW.

Yes just as forecasted, and we'll see a more NW movement later today into tonight.

[orion]

I meant to post this here yesterday, but posted it in the wrong forum. Since some people are questioning the BAM models and their behavior, this may help...

BAM (beta advection models) models... they are named that because they take into account the beta effect - which deals with the coriolis force/earth's rotation. The S, M, and D on the end of BAM refers to the level that the model uses for its wind average. S for shallow (TS or weak system), M for medium, and D for deep (more intense system). The BAMs are trajectory models. Here is a description of trajectory models from the NHC site:

"Trajectory models are much simpler than dynamical or statistical models as they merely move a TC along a track based on the prevailing flow derived from a separate dynamical model. While trajectory models utilize information from dynamical models to represent the prevailing flow, they do not allow the cyclone to interact with the surrounding atmosphere. Another limitation associated with trajectory models is their reliance on static levels in the atmosphere to represent the prevailing flow. To account for the variation in the prevailing flow with height, multiple versions of the same trajectory model based on varying depths are typically employed."

That's why you are seeing people say not to rely on these models for Fay.

[DESTRUCTION5]

What is going on with the BAMs taking a hard left?

I think we will see the NHC make the 11AM turn NE Across the state...Basing this on, The Euro,GFDL,GFS,CMC and HWRF all taking what ever Fay is in to the Atlantic...

[jinftl]

a bend to the NE (and the angle) once off the SW FL coast is probably something of a wild card....along with whether she can actually survive through the day today......those are the main ??? as we approach crunch time

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

A lot of faith goes into "eroding ridges". Katrina was supposed to go to Panama City based on these models.

This is not Katrina, Fay is already starting to pull to the north, NHC's track is right on.

Good. As I sit here 3 years later in an unfinished house, I hope all storms become "fish". I hope for a sharp right turn, that will miss Florida completely. Just don't like seeing a model this way. LBAR was a "stupid" model that confirmed.

[HurryKane]

I meant to post this here yesterday, but posted it in the wrong forum. Since some people are questioning the BAM models and their behavior, this may help...

BAM (beta advection models) models... they are named that because they take into account the beta effect - which deals with the coriolis force/earth's rotation.

(snip)

That's why you are seeing people say not to rely on these models for Fay.

Thank you so much for your answer!

[Blown Away]

I think the circulation survives because it will move over a narrower flatter west central Cuba. If the weak circulation that moved off of Haiti had moved directly over E Cuba's high mountains I bet Fay would have been finished. IMO, the lower Keys will see the worst of Fay.

[sunny]

Pulling north of west, which is WNW.

I always thought north of west would be NW and WNW would be west of NW. And W-NW meant more west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml

I know I know...But its decent 48 hrs out....NAM over S/CenFL

[Evil Jeremy]

Waiting for the GFS to start up...

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

GFS way west so far..

[deltadog03]

What is going on with the BAMs taking a hard left?

I think we will see the NHC make the 11AM turn NE Across the state...Basing this on, The Euro,GFDL,GFS,CMC and HWRF all taking what ever Fay is in to the Atlantic...

Bet some money that the 12z GFS will be further west....That (bam models) are a precursor to what the OP run will usually do.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

66 Hrs still i nthe Gulf? I don't think so...Some one fed the GFS the wrong breakfast..

[Jason_B]

This run looks like garbage.

[sunnyday]

S. Fla. is out of the woods, right? They only have a trop. storm watch. What can they expect?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS has shifted west b/c it keeps the center moving W under Cuba for the next 24 hours. If that does indeed happen, then the GFS may be right, but if the center starts lifting north toward the coast (as expected), then this run will wind up being inaccurate.