Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

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Big Bend in 4 days...I don't think so...

[Ground_Zero_92]

No one is out of the woods yet. Don't concentrate on the center line. Anyone in the cone should have their plan ready and be prepared to act on it.

S. Fla. is out of the woods, right? They only have a trop. storm watch. What can they expect?

[Sanibel]

Edit: Wrong thread

[Jason_B]

The GFS has shifted west b/c it keeps the center moving W under Cuba for the next 24 hours. If that does indeed happen, then the GFS may be right, but if the center starts lifting north toward the coast (as expected), then this run will wind up being inaccurate.

It is wrong because Fay has already started moving north of west, unless it goes back to due west.

[ROCK]

The GFS has shifted west b/c it keeps the center moving W under Cuba for the next 24 hours. If that does indeed happen, then the GFS may be right, but if the center starts lifting north toward the coast (as expected), then this run will wind up being inaccurate.

which a weak semi exposed LLC would track with the low level flow as depicted by the current steering. No doubt if she was stacked that she would begin to pull poleward but right now she is struggeling.

[GreenSky]

Just yesterday evening, Ortt was calling for "explosive intensification"...after a few hours, the morning forecast considers the possibility a hurricane may not even form!

Why did the ALL of the forecast models suddenly backtrack 180 degrees from favorable environmental conditions to VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS?

Have you ever seen such a QUICK FLIP FLOP IN MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS in all your years covering tropical cyclones...I mean, yesterday at this time, there was ABSOLUTELY NO HINT that shear and unfavorable environmental conditions would hinder Fay from intensifying...the ONLY OBSTACLE TO FAY'S INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY WAS LAND INTERACTION.

I don't get it...now that Fay looks like she will be tracking over water longer than previously thought, the forecast models are calling for shear...when Fay was forecast to encounter more land interaction, the forecast models were predicting ZERO SHEAR.
It's like MOTHER NATURE AND THE COMPUTER MODELS are doing all they can to make sure FAY never becomes too strong.

I guess it is just destiny that Fay will NEVER get too strong, regardless of the circumstances.

[artist]

What is going on with the BAMs taking a hard left?

the bamms are not good models out of the east atlantic

[Incident_MET]

GFS 12z run basically has it now missing the influence of this first shortwave. Not a good scenario as it could allow for intensification and much slower motion.

[ROCK]

Just yesterday evening, Ortt was calling for "explosive intensification"...after a few hours, the morning forecast considers the possibility a hurricane may not even form!

Why did the ALL of the forecast models suddenly backtrack 180 degrees from favorable environmental conditions to VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS?

Have you ever seen such a QUICK FLIP FLOP IN MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS in all your years covering tropical cyclones...I mean, yesterday at this time, there was ABSOLUTELY NO HINT that shear and unfavorable environmental conditions would hinder Fay from intensifying...the ONLY OBSTACLE TO FAY'S INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY WAS LAND INTERACTION.

I don't get it...now that Fay looks like she will be tracking over water longer than previously thought, the forecast models are calling for shear...when Fay was forecast to encounter more land interaction, the forecast models were predicting ZERO SHEAR.
It's like MOTHER NATURE AND THE COMPUTER MODELS are doing all they can to make sure FAY never becomes too strong.

I guess it is just destiny that Fay will NEVER get too strong, regardless of the circumstances.

oh the mysteries of nature. If we could tell you that we would all be Pro - METS......METS dont always get it right. Follow the NHC and if your in the cone then take necessary precautions.


BTW- that ULL may give it some shear until it moves into a position to vent.

[deltadog03]

GFS 12z run basically has it now missing the influence of this first shortwave. Not a good scenario as it could allow for intensification and much slower motion.

YUP!!!!

[ROCK]

What is going on with the BAMs taking a hard left?

the bamms are not good models out of the east atlantic

they have their purpose......must be seeing a building ridge. After all it is summer and not fall which it seems wants to come early this year.

[Bocadude85]

anyone notice how the afternoon model runs seem to shift west only to shift back east at night

[Lifesgud2]

So much hype. Wow what a joke this is turning out to be...A little wind and rain. Its just like an afternoon storm here in southern forida. Stop with all these watches, warnings. Come on guys..

[GreenSky]

So much hype. Wow what a joke this is turning out to be...A little wind and rain. Its just like an afternoon storm here in southern forida. Stop with all these watches, warnings. Come on guys..

That's how I am beginning to feel. Although never say never.

Why did the ALL of the forecast models suddenly backtrack 180 degrees from favorable environmental conditions to VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS?

Have you ever seen such a QUICK FLIP FLOP IN MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS in all your years covering tropical cyclones...I mean, yesterday at this time, there was ABSOLUTELY NO HINT that shear and unfavorable environmental conditions would hinder Fay from intensifying...the ONLY OBSTACLE TO FAY'S INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY WAS LAND INTERACTION.

I don't get it...now that Fay looks like she will be tracking over water longer than previously thought, the forecast models are calling for shear...when Fay was forecast to encounter more land interaction, the forecast models were predicting ZERO SHEAR.
It's like MOTHER NATURE AND THE COMPUTER MODELS are doing all they can to make sure FAY never becomes too strong.

I guess it is just destiny that Fay will NEVER get too strong, regardless of the circumstances.

[sunny]

GFS 12z run basically has it now missing the influence of this first shortwave. Not a good scenario as it could allow for intensification and much slower motion.

YUP!!!!

What does this mean?

[deltadog03]

I don't know yet...Havn't put too much thought into it...Keeps the system down there a bit longer...Misses the "out" and then comes up afterwards into the gom.

[baygirl_1]

So much hype. Wow what a joke this is turning out to be...A little wind and rain. Its just like an afternoon storm here in southern forida. Stop with all these watches, warnings. Come on guys..

That's how I am beginning to feel. Although never say never.

Why did the ALL of the forecast models suddenly backtrack 180 degrees from favorable environmental conditions to VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS?

Have you ever seen such a QUICK FLIP FLOP IN MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS in all your years covering tropical cyclones...I mean, yesterday at this time, there was ABSOLUTELY NO HINT that shear and unfavorable environmental conditions would hinder Fay from intensifying...the ONLY OBSTACLE TO FAY'S INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY WAS LAND INTERACTION.

I don't get it...now that Fay looks like she will be tracking over water longer than previously thought, the forecast models are calling for shear...when Fay was forecast to encounter more land interaction, the forecast models were predicting ZERO SHEAR.
It's like MOTHER NATURE AND THE COMPUTER MODELS are doing all they can to make sure FAY never becomes too strong.

I guess it is just destiny that Fay will NEVER get too strong, regardless of the circumstances.

You said it yourself: Never say never.
Anyone who's lived along the coast, esp. the Gulf, knows that tropical systems can be unpredictable at time. The atmosphere is fluid and changeable. After all, here we always say, "If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes." Sometimes it's that way with tropical systems. Models flip-flop. Atmospheric dynamics change. Keep in mind that as quickly as they changed before, they can change just that quickly again. Best practice is to stay alert and be prepared.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS 12z run basically has it now missing the influence of this first shortwave. Not a good scenario as it could allow for intensification and much slower motion.

YUP!!!!

What does this mean?

IF that happens, then the storm would go slightly further west than currently forecast. However, given the fact that the storm is already moving WNW at a decent speed, I think that the chances of this actually playing out are not all that great. Let's just wait and see what happens.

[artist]

So much hype. Wow what a joke this is turning out to be...A little wind and rain. Its just like an afternoon storm here in southern forida. Stop with all these watches, warnings. Come on guys..

That's how I am beginning to feel. Although never say never.

Why did the ALL of the forecast models suddenly backtrack 180 degrees from favorable environmental conditions to VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS?

Have you ever seen such a QUICK FLIP FLOP IN MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS in all your years covering tropical cyclones...I mean, yesterday at this time, there was ABSOLUTELY NO HINT that shear and unfavorable environmental conditions would hinder Fay from intensifying...the ONLY OBSTACLE TO FAY'S INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY WAS LAND INTERACTION.

I don't get it...now that Fay looks like she will be tracking over water longer than previously thought, the forecast models are calling for shear...when Fay was forecast to encounter more land interaction, the forecast models were predicting ZERO SHEAR.
It's like MOTHER NATURE AND THE COMPUTER MODELS are doing all they can to make sure FAY never becomes too strong.

I guess it is just destiny that Fay will NEVER get too strong, regardless of the circumstances.

each and every hour she stays out there longer than the original models forecast the environment will change. And models will keep changing. Now they have to catch back up to where she is rather than where she should have been. I hope that makes sense.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well if you want to believe this run you have to also believe that there will be another storm headed at FL next week too...

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