Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

Fay definitely is moving WNW rate along the NHC track maybe just a smidge right and should be on the Cuba coast before 81W. Fay is gaining latitude at a decent rate now.

[coreyl]

Could that mean more shifts in the track?

[Taffy]

You don't mean that seriously do you, Lifegud2 ?

[Dean4Storms]

Damn these models, going to have to run to the store after some more Grecian Formula!

[DESTRUCTION5]

All i can do is...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[deltadog03]

GFS "could" be picking up on the W shear that is over the system right now from the ULL. It "could" be seeing that the llc is going to be "relatively" weak and thats what "might" keep it come on more of a W or WNW track longer??

[Incident_MET]

12Z UKMET is also slower with it looking to not be picked up by initial shortwave. This would also allow extra time to strengthen. Now 2 globals @12z indicating it missing direct influence of this initial shortwave.

[Jason_B]

GFS "could" be picking up on the W shear that is over the system right now from the ULL. It "could" be seeing that the llc is going to be "relatively" weak and thats what "might" keep it come on more of a W or WNW track longer??

So in other words her movement over the next 12 hours or so will be critical to see if GFS is actually onto something or just bunk.

[Ivanhater]

12Z UKMET is also slower with it looking to not be picked up by initial shortwave. This would also allow extra time to strengthen. Now 2 globals @12z indicating it missing direct influence of this initial shortwave.

What could that mean?

[deltadog03]

GFS "could" be picking up on the W shear that is over the system right now from the ULL. It "could" be seeing that the llc is going to be "relatively" weak and thats what "might" keep it come on more of a W or WNW track longer??

So in other words her movement over the next 12 hours or so will be critical to see if GFS is actually onto something or just bunk.

I would think so, yes.

[Incident_MET]

12Z UKMET is also slower with it looking to not be picked up by initial shortwave. This would also allow extra time to strengthen. Now 2 globals @12z indicating it missing direct influence of this initial shortwave.

What could that mean?

At this point it would mean a delay in landfall. Thus xtra time to organize further. UKMET still shows a West coast FL landfall much like the others just delayed til later Wed.

[KWT]

Its very interesting to see some models just starting to trend westward now, I think given the forecast of higher shear to be present then a slightly further west track is reasonable enough I think though obviously that means putting trust in the globals forecasted shear.

[Blown Away]

All i can do is...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

What's the next image, SFL or turn?

[DESTRUCTION5]

All i can do is...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

What's the next image, SFL or turn?

SFL WPB

[sunnyday]

What are you saying about WPB? I don't understand. Thanks for clarifying.

[DESTRUCTION5]

What are you saying about WPB? I don't understand. Thanks for clarifying.

Nothing..Just the Crazy GFS saying FL gets another storm next week...Nothing to do with Fay

[Ivanhater]

Call me Mr. Nogaps...West if you nasty

[Steve]

>>I always thought north of west would be NW and WNW would be west of NW. And W-NW meant more west.

"North of West" could be anything between West and North techincally. But north of due west is used to indicate the halfway point between WNW and W (281.25 I think). Some call it, alternatively, west by north.

Just FYI

[Jason_B]

For some reason those Nogaps images never show up for me, is there a link you can post?

[Ivanhater]

For some reason those Nogaps images never show up for me, is there a link you can post?

There should be a bar that pops up at the top , click on it and hit active run or something like that, but if not..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 85&tau=096