ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 1:25 PM EDT:

[KWT]

chris_fit, the fact the LLC looks better and found is simply because its beocme exposed and you can see it far better without convection over it.

I wonder whether the ULL will elongate like the GFS suggests?

[Shockwave]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

From its appearance on satellite and surface obs around it, it may have to strengthen to become a TS. Grand Cayman Island just 130 miles SW of the center has a NE wind at 5 kts. The only TS winds may be in that small area of squalls NE of the center. Elsewhere, winds appear to be under 20 kts.

Yes, closeup visible satellite loops show that Fay's circulation is rather broad and elongated to the southwest of the center. However, there have been sustained tropical storm force winds reported. Cabo Cruz on the coast of southeast Cuba has been seeing sustained winds around 40 mph since mid-morning: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78360.html

Too add the jconsor's post. The NHC's statement also mentioned a 66 mph wind gust in Cabo Cruz as well.

[funster]

Its hardly explosive convection though Funster, its fairly deep but its lumped to the NE of the center, thats really not a sign of a strengthening system.

It's not explosive but i believe that even small improvements like that cloud lump are a sign a system is getting better organized. Maybe it can pull some of that convection around before it hits Cuba.

[wxman57]

Too add the jconsor's post. The NHC's statement also mentioned a 66 mph wind gust in Cabo Cruz as well.

Right, it did have some much heavier squalls earlier this morning. And the squalls are approaching that intensity now east of the center. But that's still just a minimal TS and only in one quadrant.

I'm attempting to measure a movement with GARP over the last 5 hours. Very difficult to track any feature for 5 hours, but I'm estimating 295-300 degrees at 8-10 kts or so.

[Dean4Storms]

Man this storm looks sick, if you can see a LLC in a Tropical Storm it isn't doing well!!!


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html

She has turned West for sure.

[ronjon]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

It's really moving mainly west for the last few hours (as others have reported too). This late in the game a little more west makes a big difference ... but then an immediate jog to the north would end that quickly. I think it may be re-organizing around the llc. To my eyes, because it's partially exposed, it looks vigorous and I'm seeing convection slowly increasing around the center.

As far as track, either the NHC 11AM position was too far north or this has moved a little south in the last few hours.

I agree. The LLC looks quite vigorous on the VIS SAT even though its exposed on the west side. Don't forget Cabo Cruz reported a wind gust of 66 mph. So there are some storm force winds near the center. 12Z GFS predicted a more west movement out to the western tip of Cuba - perhaps we're seeing that now over the last 3 hours - looks like the LLC is moving near 280-285 deg now. Fay still needs to develop a big burst of convection to really start developing though.

[jlauderdal]

By jfaul4820

[Tropicswatcher]

Too add the jconsor's post. The NHC's statement also mentioned a 66 mph wind gust in Cabo Cruz as well.

Right, it did have some much heavier squalls earlier this morning. And the squalls are approaching that intensity now east of the center. But that's still just a minimal TS and only in one quadrant.

I'm attempting to measure a movement with GARP over the last 5 hours. Very difficult to track any feature for 5 hours, but I'm estimating 295-300 degrees at 8-10 kts or so.

I agree. And that observation of 40 mph winds was from 2 hours ago. Since them no new observations have been reported.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think that Shortwave in the Gulf speaks for itsself..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

Too add the jconsor's post. The NHC's statement also mentioned a 66 mph wind gust in Cabo Cruz as well.

Right, it did have some much heavier squalls earlier this morning. And the squalls are approaching that intensity now east of the center. But that's still just a minimal TS and only in one quadrant.

I'm attempting to measure a movement with GARP over the last 5 hours. Very difficult to track any feature for 5 hours, but I'm estimating 295-300 degrees at 8-10 kts or so.

Right over the last 5 hours I agree with that movement, but over the last 2 hours or so its been pretty close to west there's no denying it.

On this track landfall in Cuba may take more than 12 hours with a projected GARP movement of WNW

[HURAKAN]

Pressure extra. 1006 mb.

[AdamFirst]

NHC 2 PM advisory still has it going WNW

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

[KWT]

Yeah wxman57 would it be possible to estimate a 2-3hr motion, does seem to have bent back a little to the west again as the LLC becomes exposed.

For what its worth the GFS weakens this upper low between 24-36hrs and send its westwards whilst a upper high forms in the Gulf. May not build in time to give Fay a better set-up unless Fay goes further west then expected.

[gatorcane]

and latest NHC advisory still expecting a possible hurricane before reaching Cuba.

Wxman what do you think about that? It's telling me this may be the worst we will see Fay and it must organize pretty fast over the next 12 hours or so.

[wxman57]

Yeah wxman57 would it be possible to estimate a 2-3hr motion, does seem to have bent back a little to the west again as the LLC becomes exposed.

For what its worth the GFS weakens this upper low between 24-36hrs and send its westwards whilst a upper high forms in the Gulf. May not build in time to give Fay a better set-up unless Fay goes further west then expected.

I think we may be seeing the same thing as yesterday. There was a weak vortex that formed and moved south of west for a while then dissipated. This little vortex is now moving a bit south of west, but the overall system is moving WNW.

[KWT]

Recon pretty much shows the west movement of the LLC recently in the last couple of hours, of course it may not make a huge difference as it could wobble NW in the next few hours to balance out the track to WNW as being shown by the NHC.

Got to admit I'll be very surprised if its even close tohurricane force before Cuba, just can't see it with the current shear expected to last at least another 24hrs.

[wxman57]

and NHC advisory still expecting a possible hurricane before reaching Cuba.

Wxman what do you think about that? It's telling me this may be the worst we will see Fay and it must organize pretty fast over the next 12 hours or so.

Is there another stronger storm out there besides Fay that will hit Cuba as a hurricane? I think the plane will find a few areas of TS winds east of the center, enough to keep it a TS for now. If there are any 50 mph sustained winds they're only over a few square miles.

[tolakram]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

Is that the correct position? Is it really moving that fast to the west?

[MusicCityMan]

She must be doing better than we think if her winds are still 50 mph.