ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[vbhoutex]

Fay will not be anything close to being a "major disaster" like the Florida Governor Charlie Crist said Sat. Fay will be just a little annoyance but nothing more than that.....
Do not overact and just lay back enjoy a little bitty T-Storm.....and wait for next time for a more real threat......Fay is just a joke of a tropical system......


The above statement is what I feel is the feeling right now of some people in the state of Fla. ...just my thoughts now.
I would watch Fay with a wary eye just in case Fay has a nasty surprise or two that she has yet to demonstrate......

jaxfladude, this is NOT a joke of a tropical storm. Sure it is sheared, but when it enters the GOM, has an anticyclone build, shear lessen, and southern inflow less disrupted, then I think you will see at least a Cat 1, while Cat 3 is also possible IMO.

JAXFLdude, you may feel that way, but I consider your post irresponsible. You have no way of knowing what Fay is going to do over the next 48-60 hours. I have no idea if you have ever been through a TS, much less a Hurricane, but from my experiences I can tell you that neither one is a joke!!! I've experienced minor TS's with little wind that dropped 35" of rain and killed 21 people(TS Allison)all the way up to CAT 1 or 2 canes directly and the Eastern side of Camille at her worst(100 miles East of the landfall and it wasn't any fun!!).
Posts such as yours could mislead those that are not versed in TC's and what they can do to not prepare when they need to.

[SoupBone]

No you are actually spot OFF unless you don't know how to read the map you posted. She is well south of the forcasted points over the last several hours.

I was confirming what deltadog03 said. Jesus you people need to lighten up and get over it.

The map was confirming what he said about it being south of the projections.

Sorry but my sarcasm meter must be broken today.

[Sanibel]

Yeah Fay has sped up in its motion, which is really rather interesting to observe and not sure why thats the case?

The ridge has it and is slinging it into the weakness. I would think this would bolster NHC's track.

[Just Joshing You]

This is going to be slightly off topic, but has anyone noticed that over the last few years, we've been pretty much able to stick the possibility of R.I on every storm of tropical origin? While it is possible for every storm, given the right ingredients, to undergo R.I, I can't remember a period of time where you could pretty much throw that out there as a possibility for every single Atlantic storm.

Felix and Humberto were two hurricanes that underwent explosive intensification last year.

I know. It seems ever since 2004, pretty much every storm has had a realistic possibility of under going R.I or E.I.

[marciacubed]

I have a question ,is the High over the Atlantic building or retreating. I don't know how to read the models so I am asking for an answer in English please

[Brent]

I see it too, it's flying westward south of the NHC track.

The track is definitely shifting west at 5.

[Sanibel]

Edit: Computer burp double post.


Go to floater. Storm is left but in same arc as NHC track.

[Vortex]

northerly turn beginning as we speak..

[KWT]

Yeah maybe Sanibel but also the faster motion means more to the west of the NHC as it gains more longitude before turning into the weakness like forecasted.

[SoupBone]

northerly turn beginning as we speak..

Show me the money....

[Steve H.]

Well, if you think you've got this thing pegged to any degree, look at the 12Z Euro. Takes Fay off the east coast of Florida, then brings it back into central Florida heading west toward the panhandle. shhheeeesh.

[jaxfladude]

Like I said:"I feel is the feeling right now of some people" not people here on STROM2K MB...should have added that last part,my bad...I hate it when hear see or read about people who just brush off a tropical system a "nothing to worry about."

I am sorry if I posted it wrong, but I do take Fay seriously........again I am sorry...

[StormTracker]

I've been quiet all this time looking, listening & learning until now! This has me confused>>>what's wrong with this picture? Can someone please explain why the llc looks to be over Jamaica right now or am I seeing things?
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_0.html

[Just Joshing You]

That QuckScat is.. weird

[Vortex]

northerly turn beginning as we speak..

Show me the money....

look at the hi-res vis 1k, radar from cam, and the where the pressures are lowest coming in from cuban obs..

[cpdaman]

i think the latest shots of visible show the westward extent of our LLC was a bit of an eddy and you can see , and recon verify's that the LLC is (just NE) near 21/ 79.9 imo

either that or the LLC died also YEA the recon finally flew north to 21 thru the center!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

URNT15 KNHC 171916
AF302 1306A FAY HDOB 33 20080817
190730 2045N 08003W 8435 01529 0057 +165 +160 328008 009 013 004 00
190800 2046N 08002W 8428 01532 0056 +165 +160 329008 010 014 003 03
190830 2048N 08001W 8429 01531 0052 +168 +160 331011 012 013 004 00
190900 2049N 08000W 8432 01528 0049 +172 +160 319009 010 008 004 03
190930 2050N 07958W 8430 01530 0044 +179 +160 302004 007 011 004 00
191000 2050N 07958W 8430 01530 0044 +180 +160 282003 005 009 004 00
191030 2052N 07955W 8430 01531 0046 +178 +154 254002 003 004 004 03
191100 2054N 07955W 8431 01525 0043 +184 +160 203001 001 006 003 03
191130 2055N 07955W 8431 01528 0042 +182 +160 124003 005 010 002 00
191200 2057N 07955W 8430 01531 0043 +178 +160 099008 010 003 005 00
191230 2059N 07955W 8434 01523 0039 +185 +160 091013 014 008 004 00
191300 2101N 07955W 8428 01531 0041 +184 +160 093017 019 017 002 00
191330 2102N 07955W 8434 01526 0045 +183 +160 090022 023 022 004 03
191400 2104N 07955W 8428 01532 0045 +182 +160 088025 025 025 004 00
191430 2106N 07955W 8430 01531 0049 +179 +160 092027 027 028 005 00
191500 2108N 07955W 8433 01529 0051 +176 +160 095028 029 032 005 00
191530 2109N 07955W 8431 01532 0051 +178 +160 091025 026 035 004 00
191600 2111N 07955W 8431 01535 0054 +175 +160 092027 028 033 004 00
191630 2113N 07955W 8430 01537 0059 +167 +160 095031 034 033 006 00
191700 2113N 07955W 8430 01537 0060 +168 +160 098033 035 033 008 00
$$

[Dean4Storms]

I have her near 20.8 80.2 moving almost due West.

[Sanibel]

Can someone please explain why the llc looks to be over Jamaica right now or am I seeing things?

Quickscat is too coarse a resolution and misses weak tight systems like Fay.

[CrazyC83]

Recon extrapolated 1004mb.

[KWT]

Latest recon pass through center shows estimated pressure of 1003.9mbs and also a little to the north of the last pass because it looks like recon got a better pass this time of the center.

Based on recon center looks to be about 20.9N which would only place it a little west of the NHC track.