ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

My uncalibrated eyes think it is just a wobble. But I'm not sure.

This doesn't have a consolidated center yet like Charley, so that kind of rapid intensification seems less likely, but it actually looks more organized to me now than a few hours ago, so, to repeat what I've posted every 15 pages or so on every TS thread, always figure at least one Saffir-Simpson category higher than official NHC forecast when making storm preps.

[wxman57]

That vortex we were seeing move westward over the past 2-3 hours appears to be expanding and dissipating. That's NOT the center moving westward. Look at the convection east of there. It's moving WNW-NW into Cuba. That's the area to track. Fay's pretty much on track, a little faster movement recently, that's about it. It definitely isn't moving westward.

[jaxfladude]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

I fear that too, that is why I am worried about things and a feeling of "It will not be a bad hurricane." Anything can happen....

[gatorcane]

yep and hence the reason for the TS watches for SE FL metro areas. They may be upgraded to hurricane watches depending upon the track and where the windfield ends up

[HURAKAN]

If they didn't receive permission, they violated airspace.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That vortex we were seeing move westward over the past 2-3 hours appears to be expanding and dissipating. That's NOT the center moving westward. Look at the convection east of there. It's moving WNW-NW into Cuba. That's the area to track. Fay's pretty much on track, a little faster movement recently, that's about it. It definitely isn't moving westward.

You could have chimed in about 30 mins ago WXMAN..LOL

[wxman57]

That vortex we were seeing move westward over the past 2-3 hours appears to be expanding and dissipating. That's NOT the center moving westward. Look at the convection east of there. It's moving WNW-NW into Cuba. That's the area to track. Fay's pretty much on track, a little faster movement recently, that's about it. It definitely isn't moving westward.

You could have chimed in about 30 mins ago WXMAN..LOL

Was busy putting out our 3pm Fay track.

[StormTracker]

The apparent more westly track with the LLC seems to be a wobble from what I'm looking at. Watch the overall convective mass for a more definitive motion.

- Jay

i agree .,. but it is completly possible that the center is back tracking or wobbleing do to the convective blow up to its east
and maybe trying to tuck up under it.. that remains to be seen but thus far appears to be doing so.

Aric, I agree with you! I'm seeing the same thing! This is the weirdest storm I have ever tracked!!!

[Ivanhater]

That vortex we were seeing move westward over the past 2-3 hours appears to be expanding and dissipating. That's NOT the center moving westward. Look at the convection east of there. It's moving WNW-NW into Cuba. That's the area to track. Fay's pretty much on track, a little faster movement recently, that's about it. It definitely isn't moving westward.

Seems south to me

[KWT]

That vortex we were seeing move westward over the past 2-3 hours appears to be expanding and dissipating. That's NOT the center moving westward. Look at the convection east of there. It's moving WNW-NW into Cuba. That's the area to track. Fay's pretty much on track, a little faster movement recently, that's about it. It definitely isn't moving westward.

Yeah thats true I saw the true LLC briefly when the convection eased off aobut an hour further east of where that eddy was. Convection still getting sheared but it seems to be the case that at least the storms are holding as of now which suggest shear isn't too severe at least.

[fox13weather]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

I fear that too, that is why I am worried about things and a feeling of "It will not be a bad hurricane." Anything can happen....

ahhhh, good quality SCIENCE!

[KWT]

Ivanhater, that 1006mbs reading was a little south of the center, real LLC is up at 21N right now, so only a little to the south of the NHC track.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the last VDM was a little too far south, or this is moving NW again.

[Sanibel]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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This one's coming here or close enough for a good brushing.

Off for more yard and house preparations.

West Coast get ready!

[gatorcane]

well looking at lastest VIS loops...

all we need is for the deep convection sustaining now on the east side to wrap and lift off folks ---

look for some good steady organization all the way up until it crosses over Cuba...then who knows.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[sunnyday]

IMHO, I think the ts watch for E Fl. will be removed soon. It seems that this is all about the west coast, moreso all the time. I'm afraid that some people will not pay attention to warnings when a real hurricane approaches because so much has been made of a minimal tropical storm. There are so few people in the grocery stores here in SE Fl that I think they may already be jaded. I know that watches are for safety purposes, just in case scenarios sometimes, but the empty stores say it all here. I've never seen fewer people buying supplies in the past 25 years here.

[Shockwave]

If they didn't receive permission, they violated airspace.

Lets hope they got permission or we are really in some trouble. Can Cuba actually stop us from taking our recon plane into Fay? They need the info too, so I think it would be ok for them too get that close.

[SoupBone]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

I fear that too, that is why I am worried about things and a feeling of "It will not be a bad hurricane." Anything can happen....

ahhhh, good quality SCIENCE!

Ahhhh....good quality sarcasm!

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

IMHO, I think the ts watch for E Fl. will be removed soon. It seems that this is all about the west coast, moreso all the time. I'm afraid that some people will not pay attention to warnings when a real hurricane approaches because so much has been made of a minimal tropical storm. There are so few people in the grocery stores here in SE Fl that I think they may already be jaded. I know that watches are for safety purposes, just in case scenarios sometimes, but the empty stores say it all here. I've never seen fewer people buying supplies in the past 25 years here.

with TS winds gusts even possible well NE of the center there is a low chance NHC will remove them at least not today for sure.

and wobbles right or intensification may put SE FL in a hurricane watch also, we just don't know at this point.