#6792 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:26 pm
if you look at the tail end of MOST of the models, there is no longer that hook eastward. Even how freind Canadian makes a LEFT hook toward the end, despite bringing it NNE for a trip over florida. Now the million dollar question...why all of this boads poorly for areas West, even as far west I am thinking as say Missisippi and Mobile. I think the Models are starting to pick up on a strengthening southeast ridge around day 3-5. The devil is in the details. The all seem to want to weaken it in the short term bringing it off the coast of Tampa. The difference lie in the strength of the ridge thereafter. No denying if Fay were zooming, pensacola is behind the trough and would be fine. However, Fay is supposed to be at that latitude in 3 days, not this afternoon. NAM, and to some degree GFS(and its offspring), and even UKMET seem to hint at this. 3 days out you really have to pay attention to the players set to be on the stage and in my unprofessional opinion, the stage is set for the ridge to build back. This is also supported by the SLOW, SLOW forecasted motion forecasted for the southest gulf. That tells me steering will be a little weak. Take home message, watch the trends, particularly in the 3-4 day time frames on the models...they are trending stronger with the reach it seems, which I think poses a greater through for the NGOM that we may have been seeing all along.
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