ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Jason B, I think the NHC cone is abbout right now, I can't imagine there will be a huge deal of shifting now...

the problem is with a system like this on this track even 20-30 mile shifts make a huge difference at landfall...

[scogor]

Please don't anyone even think about another Elena scenario!

[maxx9512]

After reading the disc. am I right in getting the feeling that the NHC is not overly confident in the westward shift of the track? Also how often do they put faith in the hwrf enought to rely on it to change the track based on it?
Maybe I just never noticed them saying that.
I would like any comments on this as I but an amatuer.

[sunny]

Please don't anyone even think about another Elena scenario!

lol actually I did think about Elena's track earlier

[sweetpea]

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/172105.shtml

Good discussion from the NHC has been compiled...

Not good, not good at all....I am praying now.....

You and me both, channel 6 out of orlando has a graphic up and has me in the 80% zone for tornados right now. I am moving to Ft. Myers on Friday, so everything here is crazy to begin with.

[Vortex]

Last few hours Cabo has been sustained near TS force with falling pressures


Cabo Cruz, Granma, Cuba (Airport)
Updated: 37 min 5 sec ago
83 °F / 29 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 78 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 38 mph / 61 km/h / from the ESE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.79 in / 1009 hPa (Falling)

[KWT]

Pressure is a touch lower on this pass, lowest pressure a little WSW of the last pass but really the center is still probably fairly broad and so whilst it may look like its gone due west it probably has moved a little more to the WNW.

[Frank P]

still looks to be paralleling the cuban coast...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

WXMAN 57 i haven't heard this discussed much , but what is the size of this storm (relative to others) i ask because i think should it be forecast to be small (we need to watch for some explosive development tonite (given it's slow down) as well as in the fla straits/ SE gom.

cause obvisouly small compact storms can be amazingly difficult to forecast intensity, so i'm wondering is the core of this storm forecast to be tiny, medium, large? great thanks

The NHC forecast is calling for TS force winds to extend outward 125NM miles from the center by Tuesday, with 58mph+ winds extending outward 60NM. This is pretty typical for a normal Category 1 hurricane.

Here is a comparison to a few past FL storms...

Hurricane Charley = TS force winds extended outward 90NM miles from the center at landfall.
Hurricane Wilma = TS force winds extended outward 200NM miles from the center at landfall.
Hurricane Frances = TS force winds extended outward 160NM miles from the center at landfall.

[TheRingo]

looks like she's starting to intensify, probably will continue into the night. I think this will assist with a climb north and finding the trough, imo.

[CronkPSU]

our last day of camp was Friday

good news for me...I don't have 200 phone calls from desperate parents trying to pick up their kids

bad news, I have 55 acres of camp to secure with only the facility guy left at camp...oy vey

[Ground_Zero_92]

With the pending land interaction with Cuba and the potential for center reformation as it crosses/exits Cuba, I would pay closer attention to the models as it is exiting/exits Cuba. Remember that due to the geography of Florida a small track change can make the differance between landfall being in Fort Meyers or Apalachicola.

[canetracker]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
Convergence is not looking bad over Fay
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Shear is not progged to be too bad as well.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/natl_sst_oper0.png
SST's look great.

Any thoughts on Fay trying to intensify?

[CronkPSU]

per the O Sent blog

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_weather_hurricane/

NASA has canceled its planned roll out of Atlantis that was scheduled for tomorrow and tolls on the northbound lanes of the turnpike have been suspended

[KWT]

Yep Frank looks like recon obs thus far agree with you as well it seems still we shall see what hpapens won't we in the next few hours or so with regard to the motion of Fay.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

radar looks much better then it did when I left around 1:30 this afternoon!

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[scogor]

Watching Fay with even more interest than usual as I have a flight back to Tampa that leaves tomorrow morning from Ohio and my wife and one of my daughters were planning to fly back to Tampa from NYC on Tuesday afternoon. Not much chance of that happening. Watching the forecasted landfall points change dramatically between the 11 and 5 NHC advisories reminds us all of the unique layout of Florida's west coast. As we were reminded so forcefully during Charley, a slight wiggle or wobble can have large implications as far as landfall is concerned. All of us on this board during Charley also remember more than a few posters warning about the potential for rapid intensification and we should all keep Charley at the very least in the back of our minds during the next few days. The scenarios may be different but we all should keep reminding ourselves to focus on the cone and not the line--we can't hear it enough.

Also, for those of you under mandatory evacuation orders..."Mandatory" means exactly that: it's a crime under Florida law to disobey a mandatory evacuation order. If you're under a mandatory evacuation order, get yourself to a shelter or somewhere else out of the path of the storm. Remaining in your home is not the thing to do...

[johngaltfla]

This has been MY forecast all along...a Pensacola, FL landfall. What's everyone's take on that being a good point of intrest? The Spaghetti charts have a Florida Panhandle landfall a big possiblilty, but most on here are still saying a Tampa threat is what's most likely. How come the Panhandle is being discounted?

Because currently there is a low front (stationary) stalled south of you providing a strong probability (much like Charley) of a NE or NNE turn.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Based on where recon found the center looks like it has moved a little south of due west to me!

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 21:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 06
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 17

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 21Z on the 17th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 20.9N 80.2W
Location: 88 miles (141 km) to the S (170°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1003mb (29.62 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
28.2°C (82.8°F)
24.5°C (76.1°F)
30° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
1000mb
25m (82 ft)
28.0°C (82.4°F)
24.4°C (75.9°F)
30° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
925mb
714m (2,343 ft)
23.4°C (74.1°F)
19.8°C (67.6°F)
30° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
850mb
1,451m (4,760 ft)
20.4°C (68.7°F)
16.9°C (62.4°F)
65° (from the ENE)
4 knots (5 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 21:29Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 20.88N 80.16W
Splash Time: 21:31Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 30° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 882mb to 1002mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 30° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 00000

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1003mb (Surface)
28.2°C (82.8°F)
24.5°C (76.1°F)
933mb
23.6°C (74.5°F)
20.2°C (68.4°F)
850mb
20.4°C (68.7°F)
16.9°C (62.4°F)
844mb
19.0°C (66.2°F)
16.0°C (60.8°F)



Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface)
30° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
931mb
25° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
884mb
50° (from the NE)
12 knots (14 mph)
882mb
50° (from the NE)
6 knots (7 mph)
844mb
70° (from the ENE)
3 knots (3 mph)

The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

---

Dropsonde Diagram:

[KWT]

Convection starting to really close in on the convection, seems like the shear is slowly reducing on Fay as convection builds back and banding starts to emerge again after looking linear breifly earlier.