ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve H.]

thanks

[Terry]

ok, I apologize, where is Manatee county?

Bradenton, FL is the largest city. It is the county at the southern mouth to Tampa Bay.

Right where I am sitting at the moment.

[PhillyWX]

So now that South FL isn't in the cone (Eastern Side) would it be safe to assume that the watches will not become warnings?

Depends on the size of the storm after it leaves Cuba. It might be prudent to put up tropical storm warnings in case it grows or shifts back eastward.

It might be prudent but you don't want to cry wolf too often. The watches, right now, are completely appropriate down there. They will likely not see the worst impacts and those locations may not see tropical storm force winds except in gusts.

[scogor]

Mets, am I right in recollecting that Charley's last minute "sharp right turn" was caused by an uncharacteristically early cold front that moved more quickly and was stronger than originally anticipated--thus pushing Charley into the Punta Gorda area rather than Tampa Bay or Sarasota County? If so, am I further right in assuming that no such factor exists to cause such Fay to make such a quick and dramatic track change?

[Frank P]

using this loop appears to hit right on the NHC forecast plot..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

however, it really needs to start pulling NW like right about NOW to remain on track... to my untrained and tired eyes still looks to be moving wnw....

[SkeetoBite]

ok, I apologize, where is Manatee county?

Bradenton, FL is the largest city. It is the county at the southern mouth to Tampa Bay.

Right where I am sitting at the moment.

Me too...

[maxx9512]

using this loop appears to hit right on the NHC forecast plot..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

however, it really needs to start pulling NW like right about NOW to remain on track... to my untrained and tired eyes still looks to be moving wnw....

Frank, I have to agree as I was doing the zoom in, zoom out thing looking at those points and say they are left of the center.
But then I have been staring at it for 3 nights now so I could not be seeing it correctly!

[Shockwave]

using this loop appears to hit right on the NHC forecast plot..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

however, it really needs to start pulling NW like right about NOW to remain on track... to my untrained and tired eyes still looks to be moving wnw....

People have been saying that Fay needs to turn NW now for over 5 hours today...but it has yet to do so, so why are we still forecasting a Tampa Bay landfall and not a Pensacola or FL Panhandle landfall?

[KWT]

Charley was a good example of why no one on the west coast should put thier guard down with this system, I doubt it takes a sharp deviation like Charley but I do notre that landfalling systems do have a habit of jogging a little to the east for some reason, just look at countless systems go just a little east of forecasted around landfall in the past...

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 172218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/21:29:30Z
B. 20 deg 53 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1452 m
D. 23 kt
E. 260 deg 16 nm
F. 336 deg 030 kt
G. 243 deg 034 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1452 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 18:07:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 259 / 12NM

Any reason they mentioned the FL temp?

[Toyota Thundra]

EDIT: n00bish mistake

[KWT]

Weak convection firing over the LLC now, not very deep but present looking at the high res Vis.imagery. Also recon suggests a track slightly south of the NHC track at the present moment...

[Steve]

>>FWIW, Newschannel 8 in Tampa just showed their VIPIR model which indicated a Manatee County landfall. That is fascinating as it was one of the few that projected a relatively decent path for Charley.

It worked ridiculously for Cindy in 2005, but I've seen it fail way more times than it's been close. They have it at Fox8 NOLA.

>>Mets, am I right in recollecting that Charley's last minute "sharp right turn" was caused by an uncharacteristically early cold front that moved more quickly and was stronger than originally anticipated--

IMHO, it was the land interaction that pulled it in. I think there was a boundary in there (would have to go back and look), but I would have sworn it was a South Texas storm coming in from the sea. I was way off on that one but had it not hooked, I remember a pretty large high across the central western Gulf that could have steered it westerly.

Steve

[johngaltfla]

Me too...

Aw heck, I didn't know you were local Skeetobite!

I guess we'll all be meeting here at 0500 with our coffee to figure out what is going to happen. Let's hope the ridge to our east stays strong and keeps it off of us. We have a record of not being hit year after year; let's hope that is not spoiled.

[Terry]

Me too...

Aw heck, I didn't know you were local Skeetobite!

I guess we'll all be meeting here at 0500 with our coffee to figure out what is going to happen. Let's hope the ridge to our east stays strong and keeps it off of us. We have a record of not being hit year after year; let's hope that is not spoiled.

Skeet is at the marina prepping his boat

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, it was the land interaction that pulled it in. I think there was a boundary in there (would have to go back and look), but I would have sworn it was a South Texas storm coming in from the Atlantic. I was way off on that one but had it not hooked, I remember a pretty large high across the central western Gulf that could have steered it westerly.

Steve

Actually it was an out of season cold front which rarely dips as far south as that one did; I remember it like yesterday.

And a similar type, not exact of course, seems to be setting up now. We'll see if the ridge holds, if not, we're back into a wild series of models over the next 24 hours.

[ekal]

URNT12 KNHC 172218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/21:29:30Z
B. 20 deg 53 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1452 m
D. 23 kt
E. 260 deg 16 nm
F. 336 deg 030 kt
G. 243 deg 034 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1452 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 43 KT E QUAD 18:07:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 259 / 12NM

Any reason they mentioned the FL temp?

That comment means the maximum FL temperature was found 12 nautical miles to the W of the center. Usually, maximum temperature is co-located with the center, but due to the disorganization, they are displaced.

[Bocadude85]

using this loop appears to hit right on the NHC forecast plot..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

however, it really needs to start pulling NW like right about NOW to remain on track... to my untrained and tired eyes still looks to be moving wnw....

Frank, I have to agree as I was doing the zoom in, zoom out thing looking at those points and say they are left of the center.
But then I have been staring at it for 3 nights now so I could not be seeing it correctly!

seems to be right on track to me perhaps a smudge north

[Steve Cosby]

People have been saying that Fay needs to turn NW now for over 5 hours today...but it has yet to do so, so why are we still forecasting a Tampa Bay landfall and not a Pensacola or FL Panhandle landfall?

Because of the trough you can see stretched across the panhandle into the center part of the Gulf of Mexico.

[Sal Collaziano]

It has always amazed me how so many storms pointed directly at Florida's east coast somehow move around and end up entering on the west coast. Personally, I feel a good day's worth of rain would be a good thing for us over here.