ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Jason_B]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

Call me wrong but I sware I see a northwest/north-northwest movement...

I wish we could change speeds on these loops

I've been seeing it too, it's turning now AND getting better organized.

[KWT]

cpdaman , the LLC is getting hrader to track because its finally got some deepening convection over it again, the deepest convection is to its east still but now its starting to finally get rid of that terribly sheared look it had about 6hrs ago, still not classic but the convection slowly alining with the center again.

Still only see a WNW track as well...

[CronkPSU]

i didn't see it in the recon thread but will they basically have recon planes in there until it hits the US?

[capepoint]

>>Actually it was an out of season cold front which rarely dips as far south as that one did; I remember it like yesterday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

Shows what is described as a mid-tropospheric trough - which you can see across the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend (as noted, I said a boundary was there). If you watch the eye landfall on the radar on the link, you can see how it almost gets pulled in and hooks as the circulation catches the land. Clearly the storm was going to move NE short of that trough washing out or whatever, but it did so further south than if it would have ridden up closer to the boundary (clearly seen in the still photo). You might be entirely right as the land interaction thing is a theory I have which will have to be tested again should a strong and deepening storm be moving close to the West Coast of Florida and catch a piece of land with the circulation. Again, not swearing by this, but that slight hook in is suspicious (to me anyway).

Not a real forcast by not a real meteorologist..blah blah you know...

I too strongly believe in the land interaction theory. EVERY time we get a hurricane or TS up here it ALWAYS ends up north / east of forcast point, by as much as 90 miles depending on approach angle. This is not figured into models as far as I know, and the pro mets says its crazy, but what else could do it EVERY time? Which is also why I still think this one will hook more NE than the mods are showing.

[eastcoastFL]

i definetly agree with nnw heading

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the forward speed is starting to greatly decrease, and I see a NW movement right now as Fay approaches Cuba's coast. It also looks east of the next forecast point (on the loop layer options). Finally, with the feeder bands already affecting the keys and SFL, this could end up affecting all of SFL, even though the east side is no longer in the cone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sabanic]

She'll have to regroup though after crossing Cuba.

[tgenius]

We had a small group of cells around 630am today that was pretty strong but so far not much else (everything else is to our north)

If it in fact is going NW or NNW, wouldn't that shift the cone back east?

[Bgator]

Hard to tell where exactly it is moving now with the vis imagery about to go away. I would guess NW, but it looked like it has slowed in speed, at least to my eyes.

[Jason_B]

I think the NHC was too quick to shift the track west, this thing has slowed down tremendously and IMO I think it's about to shoot nearly due north straight through Cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

Here's the Cuban radar mosaic, probably answers a few questions

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... p200Km.gif

[KWT]

Recon still showing movement only a little north of west however, LLC still appears slightly south of 21N, its certainly not moving NW based on that....

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

WPB about to get Fays 1st hello

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think it would help if we had a pro met tell us the heading. What a trooper Fay is. From looking terrible this morning, too looking very better organized this evening. IMO, even if Fay is heading NW or NNW, that area of Cuba is not very mountanous and will probably have not too much of an affect.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looking on Radar I don't see much of any movement. I think what some are seeing as a north movement is the convection from the east wrapping around to the north.

[paintplaye]

It is defiantly not moving Northwest. I think people are looking at each little jog or each frame to much. We need to stop examining each little jog and the overall track. I know that it is expected to turn NW and y'all are all waiting to see that, but lets make sure it has turned NW before we post it.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that there is a leftward shift in the models. NHC has been resistent to hug the models, and they have done very well overall with the track. As many have repeatedly mentioned, the Bams are usually discounted, as is the Nogaps. This still suggests a WFL landfall, but north of Tampa.

My gut says further west adjustments may be needed later, but judging from the last few sat frames, Fay might be exactly on the NHC track... so my gut might be wrong. I keep looking for ways for Tampa to be spared the brunt, since most of my family and friends and some of my property still live there (I am in NE FL).

This has been a nail biter.

[Noles2006]

Looking on Radar I don't see much of any movement. I think what some are seeing as a north movement is the convection from the east wrapping around to the north.

I agree - I do not think they are correctly identifying the true center.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think it would help if we had a pro met tell us the heading. What a trooper Fay is. From looking terrible this morning, too looking very better organized this evening. IMO, even if Fay is heading NW or NNW, that area of Cuba is very mountanous and will probably have not too much of an affect.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

On the contrary, it will be passing through some of the flatter terrain of Cuba.

[KWT]

I think why people think its headingNW is because finally convection is arching over the center and even onto the western quadrant and with some slight shear still it gives the illusion of the system moving NW.