ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 172336
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/23:08:50Z
B. 20 deg 57 min N
080 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1445 m
D. 24 kt
E. 200 deg 32 nm
F. 290 deg 025 kt
G. 201 deg 046 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1465 m
J. 19 C/ 1445 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 21:53:30 Z


Down a mb.

[lbvbl]

New GFDL is further east than the previous run, showing landfall in Central Florida.

can you show the track, or is there a link you can post?

[CronkPSU]

haven't seen this posted in at least 50 pages or so, but are any of our hurricane trackers making the trip to the expected landfall location?

[TheRingo]

Sure is filling in to its east quadrants and the northern outflows seem to be elongating.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is becoming some what better organized as the core slides under the convection. Better banding on radar to top that off. We will have to see if it can hold on to it and ULL to its west can weaken enough to allow for more organizion. Right now I would go for about 55 knot landfall into Cuba. Maybe not west of 82 as it is looking right now.

Who knows what this is going to do, but it could still become a cane in the gulf.

[Emmett_Brown]

New GFDL is further east than the previous run, showing landfall in Central Florida.

can you show the track, or is there a link you can post?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081712-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[artist]

I have a question. Why does part of the SE coast of Fl still have a hurricane watch when they've teken this area out of the cone?

just in case. I noticed they have handled all the watches differently this season and I think I like it.

[HURAKAN]

Last visible and lighted up.

[KWT]

Yep pressure down to 1002mbs, slow strengthening as you'd expect being close to land but the system looks a lot better then it did 6hrs ago, convection really has developed well and at last is over the center, slowly organising now it seems.

big burst over the center as well on that IR.

[tgenius]

Here's another question.. if Fay's windfield is expanding (as it appears to be) wouldn't that mean that TS wind would extend farther east than originally expected?

[Brent]

I have a question. Why does part of the SE coast of Fl still have a hurricane watch when they've teken this area out of the cone?

Remember that a tropical system is not a point. The cone is for the track of the center, not the wide-ranging effects of the storm.

Oh, and it's a TS watch.

[sunnyday]

Thanks for the info. I just dont see a need in a watch when we're not even in the cone. I'm afraid people will be skeptical the next time a storm is out there.

[Over my head]

A - B: 88 miles

C - D: 26 miles

It makes a difference.

Yes it obviously does. I see how each mile she sneaks further west could make a huge difference now in over water time and intensification possibilities. Boy that image helps a bunch HURAKAN. Thank you.

[HURAKAN]

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

[cpdaman]

Thanks for the info. I just dont see a need in a watch when we're not even in the cone. I'm afraid people will be skeptical the next time a storm is out there.

the cone shifts, (could shift west again or back right) and there is lots of uncertainty with the track, really pretty straight forward

[caneman]

Big slow down. Direction change should follow soon.

[Emmett_Brown]

Thanks for the info. I just dont see a need in a watch when we're not even in the cone. I'm afraid people will be skeptical the next time a storm is out there.

This is probably a better graphic than the cone to give people an idea of the swath that is potentially affected by TS conditions:

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205301.shtml?tswind120#contents[/img]

[RL3AO]

Check out this drop

21212 00002 05023

1002mb but with a 23 kt wind.

[Sabanic]

Big slow down. Direction change should follow soon.

Because it has slowed? Maybe . . . .

[HURAKAN]

Can't wait for the next RECON!