ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best Track leaves winds at 45kts:

AL, 06, 2008081800, , BEST, 0, 210N, 803W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[KWT]

I want to see the longer term speed average before commiting to any turn but no doubt its slowed right down and that can often be a good sign of a shift in the track about to occur.

It won't be a sudden flip to a northerly track by the way, the model suggest a gradual evolution from WNW through to north in the next 24hrs or so.

[sunnyday]

Since PB county has been removed from the cone, does that mean they will have no tropical storm effects (rain, wind)?

[Jason_B]

This thing almost looks stalled.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I want to see the longer term speed average before commiting to any turn but no doubt its slowed right down and that can often be a good sign of a shift in the track about to occur.

It won't be a sudden flip to a northerly track by the way, the model suggest a gradual evolution from WNW through to north in the next 24hrs or so.

Fay hasn't moved much for 10 hours now. Show me a model that forecasted that?

[CronkPSU]

some people were saying that its not that the storm isn't moving, it is that the center is relocating to where the deep convection was hence it gives the illusion that it isn't moving or moving much

[Evil Jeremy]

Since PB county has been removed from the cone, does that mean they will have no tropical storm effects (rain, wind)?

Course not. That just means that at this time, the center is not likely to pass through our area. But that is just the center.

[SouthFLTropics]

Since PB county has been removed from the cone, does that mean they will have no tropical storm effects (rain, wind)?

Stay tuned...just because our area is out of the cone now does not mean that it won't go back in the cone on another track update in the future. I'm not saying that it will. All I'm saying is that the situation that is dictating Fay's movement and future strength is highly fluid at the moment. Things can and most likely will change.

SFT

[Frank P]

might have to agree with ya... look at this loop... still sitting on 21 and 80.3 from what I can tell.. speed up the animination, just parked at the forecast point...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[tolakram]

I want to see the longer term speed average before commiting to any turn but no doubt its slowed right down and that can often be a good sign of a shift in the track about to occur.

It won't be a sudden flip to a northerly track by the way, the model suggest a gradual evolution from WNW through to north in the next 24hrs or so.

Fay hasn't moved much for 10 hours now. Show me a model that forecasted that?

10 hours? She hasn't moved much in the last 3 but prior to that movement was steady after a big jump 12 hours ago. It's all in the graph. Sometimes visuals help people remember what's been happening.

Besides, those best track numbers tend to stay the same as the most recent advisory unless the movement is significant. At least that's what I've noticed. if recon fixes a new position then those numbers will change.

[gtalum]

All birds, bugs, and reptiles acting normally around here.

[cpdaman]

exactly

run this on high, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

center doesn't appear to be moving, more like fay spinning her wheels

also radar show's at least one decent feeder band on the west side

also i think the land (a few thousand feet high to the north) is so far inhibiting convection on the north side

[AdamFirst]

Fay seems to be sipping on the 90-degree waters. I see no movement either, aside from what the cuban radar suggests

[Noles2006]

Maybe not 10 hours... but for at least the last 4 hours, there has been very little overall movement of the center...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Seems to be moving west-northwestward near 300 degree's at near 6 knots. The convection has built over the LLC. It should have about 8-12 hours of water lefted to strengthen now. It is weird how this storm loves to strengthen a little before each landfall.

[Agua]

Since PB county has been removed from the cone, does that mean they will have no tropical storm effects (rain, wind)?

No.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[
Fay hasn't moved much for 10 hours now. Show me a model that forecasted that?[/quote]

10 hours? She hasn't moved much in the last 3 but prior to that movement was steady after a big jump 12 hours ago. It's all in the graph. Sometimes visuals help people remember what's been happening.

Besides, those best track numbers tend to stay the same as the most recent advisory unless the movement is significant. At least that's what I've noticed. if recon fixes a new position then those numbers will change.


[/quote]

I don't consider that much movement. If you run an 8 hour IR you'll see no movement of the convection at all. This thing is basically stalled and since no model stalled it it's hard to say which direction it will resume in.

[tolakram]

Better loop to watch for movement. Not much, but slowly west.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I don't consider that much movement. If you run an 8 hour IR you'll see no movement of the convection at all. This thing is basically stalled and since no model stalled it it's hard to say which direction it will resume in.

The models show simple changes in direction but typically happens is that as the steering currents change storms slow down to a crawl, change directions, and pick up speed again. I have no idea why but it's fairly common.

[Frank P]

Seems to be moving west-northwestward near 300 degree's at near 6 knots. The convection has built over the LLC. It should have about 8-12 hours of water lefted to strengthen now. It is weird how this storm loves to strengthen a little before each landfall.

I would love to know how you can determine this is moving at 6 knots? Are you just guessing or do you have some insider information that you can share...

[Shockwave]

some people were saying that its not that the storm isn't moving, it is that the center is relocating to where the deep convection was hence it gives the illusion that it isn't moving or moving much

Storms can stop moving you know. Bertha became stationary in the Atlantic before turning north and I thought it was impossible for a storm just stop moving in any direction, but one of the TV mets here in Nashville told me it happens a lot of times with storms before they change directions.