Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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mathwhizz
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Re: Re:

#2301 Postby mathwhizz » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:23 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
mathwhizz wrote:If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz


holy crap!!! this is awesome, luckily I have to zoom out just a bit to see the closest model to hitting Apopka...does this automatically refresh?


Yes, if you right click the link in the places bar, there is an option to refresh. It should refresh when you load google earth every time but if not, right click and refresh manually.
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Re:

#2302 Postby sweetpea » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:24 pm

mathwhizz wrote:If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz


Won't let me open it :(
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2303 Postby Frank P » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:25 pm

Jason_B wrote:
MGC wrote:That trough over the NGOM is going to have to lift out for Fay to reach much above Tampa IMO. NOGAPS ain't goona happen....MGC
Bingo, not sure why others are having a hard timing realizing that.


I don't think anyone is having a hard time realizing it.. its just a model of interest for those along the NGOM... I certainly don't think it is going to come to fruition as it stands right now... nor have I read from any posters that they think it is going to happen as well.. its just a data point in the grand scheme of things.. attm, not all that good of one... but that being said.. you can never say never in the tropics... two storms taught me that.. Elena in 85 and Katrina... the NGOM is in pretty good shape as it relates to Fay and you can bet we are estatic about that fact... the MS gulf coast is still hurting from Katrina and we don't need any kind of tropical system... period
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2304 Postby capepoint » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:27 pm

MGC wrote:That trough over the NGOM is going to have to lift out for Fay to reach much above Tampa IMO. NOGAPS ain't goona happen....MGC


Exactly. Which is why for the past 2 days I have been saying EAST. I still think this will end up in the atlantic south of daytona, Jacksonville at the furtherest north. Then should get pulled NE because of Atlantic High flow.< In my untrained opinion because I am not a weatherman.
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Re: Re:

#2305 Postby mathwhizz » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:30 pm

sweetpea wrote:
mathwhizz wrote:If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz


Won't let me open it :(


Did it open google earth when you clicked on the link? It should be in the Temporary Places section in the left hand side of google earth. You then have to make sure all the little boxes are clicked for it to show up.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2306 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:30 pm

New HWRF shifts east landfall tampa bay now
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2307 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:31 pm

wrong thread

anyhow i think a few models shifting to the east, is interesting, since no trends have been established (expect for left/right left/right) i think there may be lots more curve balls with track, intensity, and speed.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2308 Postby southerngale » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:36 pm

Frank P wrote:
Jason_B wrote:
MGC wrote:That trough over the NGOM is going to have to lift out for Fay to reach much above Tampa IMO. NOGAPS ain't goona happen....MGC
Bingo, not sure why others are having a hard timing realizing that.


I don't think anyone is having a hard time realizing it.. its just a model of interest for those along the NGOM... I certainly don't think it is going to come to fruition as it stands right now... nor have I read from any posters that they think it is going to happen as well.. its just a data point in the grand scheme of things.. attm, not all that good of one... but that being said.. you can never say never in the tropics... two storms taught me that.. Elena in 85 and Katrina... the NGOM is in pretty good shape as it relates to Fay and you can bet we are estatic about that fact... the MS gulf coast is still hurting from Katrina and we don't need any kind of tropical system... period

Exactly, Frank. If a model consistently shows landfall near your area, of course you're going to take notice. It's getting rather annoying to keep reading the same comeback every time someone mentions NOGAPS or the other models on the western edge of the consensus. It's perfectly logical to be more concerned about the models that target your area anyway.

What will be, will be.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2309 Postby DAVE440 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:38 pm

Appears to have slowed forward movement to 10mph as of 8pm. Something confuses me. Yesterday local mets said the jetstream was going to dip which could push the Atlantic high to the east. Also jetstream winds are west to east so wouldn't that direct the storm towards the east as well or is it just too far away now? If Fays forward movement is slowing, which means more time for the jet stream to dip and the high to the east to weaken or push away....why are the models still shifting to the west? I would think the longer it meanders around Cuba the more time those eastern steering influences have to move closer and affect it.
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Re: Re:

#2310 Postby sweetpea » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:38 pm

mathwhizz wrote:
sweetpea wrote:
mathwhizz wrote:If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz


Won't let me open it :(


Did it open google earth when you clicked on the link? It should be in the Temporary Places section in the left hand side of google earth. You then have to make sure all the little boxes are clicked for it to show up.


Thanks I got it!! Cool!!
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caneman

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2311 Postby caneman » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:39 pm

Link for HWRF?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2312 Postby fci » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:40 pm

sunnyday wrote:Only 3 counties in the whole state are taken out of the cone: P Beach, Martin, or ST. Lucie. We must be living right... :D


Karma's payback for Frances and Jeanne in a 3 week period!
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MiamiensisWx

#2313 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:42 pm

Actually, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are currently absent from the cone as well...

It would be positive payback after Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, AND Wilma!!!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2314 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:44 pm

fci wrote:
sunnyday wrote:Only 3 counties in the whole state are taken out of the cone: P Beach, Martin, or ST. Lucie. We must be living right... :D


Karma's payback for Frances and Jeanne in a 3 week period!


AMEN BROTHER!!!! :clap:
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Re: Re:

#2315 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:44 pm

mathwhizz wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
mathwhizz wrote:If any of you have google earth, this will overlay all of the latest models in it.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/g ... _Basin.kmz


holy crap!!! this is awesome, luckily I have to zoom out just a bit to see the closest model to hitting Apopka...does this automatically refresh?


Yes, if you right click the link in the places bar, there is an option to refresh. It should refresh when you load google earth every time but if not, right click and refresh manually.


very cool! thanks so much!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2316 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:48 pm

Image
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Jason_B

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2317 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:52 pm

lol Fay has reached a fork in the road. :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2318 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:58 pm

Looks like the two kinds of models don't agreee. The Gfdl, Gfs, ECMWF, Cmc, Gfdl, Ukmet camp shows Florida. But the other camp of models say NO it will be the northern Gulf coast.
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Jason_B

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2319 Postby Jason_B » Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:00 pm

I think I'll go with the right side because those are actually reliable models and for the most part have been consistent the past day or so.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

#2320 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like the two kinds of models don't agreee. The Gfdl, Gfs, ECMWF, Cmc, Gfdl, Ukmet camp shows Florida. But the other camp of models say NO it will be the northern Gulf coast.


If the other camp proves corrct,we will see Fay become a cat 4
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