ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bocadude85]

I would think some of these watches will be upgraded to warning at 11pm

[Vortex]

I starting to wonder if the consistently east and outlier euro is on to something?

[KWT]

Will be interesting to se eif the upper high forms like a few runs have been hinting at in the gulf of Mexico between 24-36hrs time as the ULL finally weakens

Indeed models have trended east...as they have done on just about every night since this became a named system.

I still think NHC is pretty much bang on, no reason at all to doubt the track BUT slight shifts obviously makes huge differences in terms of landfall, NHC will likely shift back towards Tampa bay as a landfall come enxt advisory.

[gatorcane]

I starting to wonder if the consistently east and outlier euro is on to something?

Note the 5pm EST NHC discussion mentioned Charley of 2004. Charley moved more NE instead of NNE....

we could see the models overestimating the ridge yet again.

[Bgator]

Anyone know why the trof wont turn the system more NE? Is it a weak trof, or is it stalling?

[caneman]

The trough is definitely a player, but from what I'm looking at, it's the combined influence of the upper low near Wrn Cuba and the troughing that are influencing the mid and upper level steering flow ahead of Fay. As for the tropical storm stalling out near Cuba, it could do this if it fails to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Any increase in intensity and convective organization, though, will embed the tropical storm deeper within the mid-level steering flow, which is decidedly southerly.

- Jay

NEXRAD,

Alway appreciate your comments, thoughts and insights.

[AJC3]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

And this...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/Images/KSCSNDG.GIF
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tbw.gif

and this....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/KSC50P.htm

The western extension of the low to mid level ridge north of Fay is pretty narrow to begin with.

[KWT]

Well the GFDL may have picked up on something with its latest shift back east BUT BUT BUT these models have shidfted back and forth so much its really hard to trust that they are going to not just move back west again...

Saying that the trough is digging down real good now, I strongly suspect NW motion to kick in over the next 6hrs, as well as some strengthening to occur.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Will be interesting to se eif the upper high forms like a few runs have been hinting at in the gulf of Mexico between 24-36hrs time as the ULL finally weakens

Indeed models have trended east...as they have done on just about every night since this became a named system.

I still think NHC is pretty much bang on, no reason at all to doubt the track BUT slight shifts obviously makes huge differences in terms of landfall, NHC will likely shift back towards Tampa bay as a landfall come enxt advisory.

looking at WV I think that is happening.

[NEXRAD]

Anyone know why the trof wont turn the system more NE? Is it a weak trof, or is it stalling?

It's not a matter of the trough being too weak, it's more that this trough is rather broad. If you look at the trough that moved 2004's Charley, you'll see that it was extremely "sharp," tilted generally SSW to NNE. The present trough is much more subtle.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

Charley was 5 summers ago, and our technology has improved since then. The NHC track record has been spot on this year, so I don't think the chances of us underestimating a ridge are as high. They are still there, but it is not as likely to happen.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html
~~~~~~~~~~
Look at the deep convection just to the north of the last position fix. Could this be the center moving north?

[KWT]

Yep the current trough will probably not allow more then a NNE motion to occur but it is digging still it seems and thus can only imagine NW movement from here on.

[LeeJet]

Ok, so what's the deal now? Do people think now this will make a move NNE?

[Frank P]

the trough is very obvious on the WV loop.. however, very few models recognize the trough at the end of their runs... most still have Fay moving almost due north at the end... why is this? Obviously the models either don't think it will still be there or they are underestimating it? you would expect the tracks to move to the NE at the end of their run... no doubt the trough will create a weakness that allows Fay to move north.. confusing to me..

[Bgator]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

And this...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/Images/KSCSNDG.GIF
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tbw.gif

and this....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/KSC50P.htm

The western extension of the low to mid level ridge north of Fay is pretty narrow to begin with.

For the untrained, what do these charts mean?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Charley was 5 summers ago, and our technology has improved since then. The NHC track record has been spot on this year, so I don't think the chances of us underestimating a ridge are as high. They are still there, but it is not as likely to happen.

It was actually 4 summers ago, and overall our weather technology has not really improved that much since then.

[KWT]

calmBeforeStorm, we simply can't assume thats whats happening, IR simply can't see the LLC and thus the true track could be anything under that deeper convection.

By the way the point JB made about the inner core makes some sense, the LLC was on a near due west but its probably whipping around and on a fairly uneven track on a broad WNW/NW motion.

[LeeJet]

[Evil Jeremy]

Charley was 5 summers ago, and our technology has improved since then. The NHC track record has been spot on this year, so I don't think the chances of us underestimating a ridge are as high. They are still there, but it is not as likely to happen.

It was actually 4 summers ago, and overall our weather technology has not really improved that much since then.

Including this summer lol.