ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

For some reason I can not copy the link but go to key west long range radar.. is that the northern part of the center showing up on radar... matches with where the center should be.. seems to be heading more north if that is the northern extent of the storm.

At this extreme range the Key West 88D will be sampling higher levels where there's a more pronounced southerly flow. Unless Fay has a stacked core, the Key West radar data won't be the best judge of surface movement.

- Jay

[Scorpion]

I think PBC schools should be closed. Dont wanna take any risks

Haha yep. I feel bad for the kids who were hoping to have school off

[sweetpea]

Can definitely see it once it was pointed out.

[cpdaman]

that is exactly what it looks like perhaps they are just playing games with us LOL

now back to the storm, i think she will be sucked north toward land/mountains slowly tonite, she is not moving westward in the short term, and she hasn't IMO since 6pm

wxman do you think she could undergo prolonged torture over cuba tonite.

[HURAKAN]

I think PBC schools should be closed. Dont wanna take any risks

That should be the idea. I remember in 2001 during TS Gabrielle, which passed far from us, during my first period everyone was looking outside to see the squally weather with heavy rainfall and strong winds. Could you imagine if that had happened during the time the students were being transported to the school? If a tropical cyclone was a point, there was no "point" in closing schools. But because they extend far from their centers and especially Fay that has been loop-sided to the east.

[SoupBone]

Just because a model is run by someone (not the NHC) doesn't mean the NHC will use it. For example, the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics as they don't take into account a changing environment in the path of a TC. There are several versions of the NAM plotted on that spaghetti plot, a model that has never proven any good for TCs. Then there are other experimental models made up by who knows who which seem to always take storms in strange directions. And you have the LBAR on there.

The NHC doesn't look at such models for guidance. They're just plotted. The best models are the consensus models like the CONU, TVCC, TCCN, TVCN, GUNS, CGUN, GUNA, HWRF, GFDL, and the FSU Superensemble. Those are the models closely followed because they have a proven track record.

Thanks for the explanation. To be honest I never knew much about them so I appreciate the response.

[lbvbl]

I think PBC schools should be closed. Dont wanna take any risks

Haha yep. I feel bad for the kids who were hoping to have school off

Yeah, I feel bad for myself too.

[SouthFLTropics]

By the way if it does make that NNE turn then kudos goes to the ECM because it did forecast that to happen.

By the way one other thing to remember, quite often when these systems make landfall they do tend to arch more to the east, this may well end up doing the same thing so everywhere in Florida needs to watch this.

I have also heard that the Gulf Stream can have an influence on shifting the track, albeit minor.

SFT

[NEXRAD]

Some recent effects from (semi-from) Fay

Although strictly speaking Fay's influence is not entirely established over the South Florida Peninsula just yet, I find it worthwhile to pass-along today's NWSFO storm reports...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
826 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FLOOD CAPE CORAL 26.58N 81.99W
08/17/2008 LEE FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE RESCUE REPORTED MODERATE STREET FLOODING IN CAPE
CORAL.

0650 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 NW NORTH FORT MYERS 26.72N 81.90W
08/17/2008 LEE FL PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST NORTHWEST OF SUNCOAST ESTATES.

And from Key West NWSFO... wind gusts to 41-mph, Marathon, 43-mph, Key West, and 48-mph, Key Largo with an outflow boundary from weakened convection that formed along Fay's peripheries earlier today.

- Jay

[Extremeweatherguy]

It seems like Fay may be starting to move again. It looks as though she may once again be heading WNW or NW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2008 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 21:28:58 N Lon : 80:51:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.8mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.8 2.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Center Temp : -7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -29.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 20:40:48 N Lon: 80:03:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

If this is worth anything.

[HURAKAN]

It seems like Fay may be starting to move again. It looks as though she may once again be heading WNW or NW...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Fay or the convection?

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty sure it is already back on the old tropical forecast points before it shifted west and you'll see it shift back east again.

This system will have problems with Cuba.

[Shockwave]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2008 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 21:28:58 N Lon : 80:51:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.8mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.8 2.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Center Temp : -7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -29.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 20:40:48 N Lon: 80:03:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

If this is worth anything.

That's a HUGE pressure drop. I hope that dosesn't verify or we have serious trouble on our hands from "alien" Fay (IMO).

[Evil Jeremy]

What happened to HURAKAN's post about the new Dvorak info?

[AJC3]

7-hour time lapse of Fay from the Pico De San Juan Radar...

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[NEXRAD]

From the 7-hour Pico de San Juan radar time-lapse, it seems that Fay is slowly moving NNW to me.

- Jay

[Bocadude85]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

everyone just look at this and tell me what you see to the south

[tampastorm]

From the 7-hour Pico de San Juan radar time-lapse, it seems that Fay is slowly moving NNW to me.

- Jay

Looks to me moving between WNW and NW