ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MWatkins]

The cone is not drawn by hand...it is a mathematical formula based from the points in time on the forecast track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

But also remember, storms track inside the cone 2/3rds of the time, which means they move outside the cone 1/3rd of the time, on average.

MW

[fci]

I think PBC schools should be closed. Dont wanna take any risks

I have to admit that I am predisposed to be a critic of closing schools, however; tomorrow is not a key day for PBC in regards to Fay and any track change.
It is Tuesday and they already announced that they will make a decision by Noon on Monday regarding school for Tuesdayl
No need to close them on Monday, IMO

Yeah I agree, I was just joking around with that comment, although I would have loved it if they did close schools tomorrow. What do you suspect the chances are for school being closed tues?

I think if the 5 PM track is maintained, then they would probably not cancel school on Tuesday.
Close call and they will depend on guidance from the NHC via the 11:00 AM advisory Monday morning to make the decision.
If winds are expected to be 40 or higher, I believe that they will cancel.

Kids may be pumped now, but they won't be when they lose a day later in place of missing Day 2 of school!

[storms in NC]

Yeah...looking at it again. I think SE FL goes back in the cone for sure at the 11pm EST advisory. She is north of the forecast point already and looks to be NNW movment. If not there must be something I don't see. I will still guess a shift right of the line by about 60 miles or so cutting up the center of the peninsula now...

Gator, I would not think they go NNW, based on a radar shot. I think you may be overcompensating here. JMO. It appears to be turning, but NNW might be a stretch. I guess we will se in less than 20 minutes though. Love your posting, just do not really agree this time.

Don't they go by how many hours it goes in Like if it was wnw for 4 hours then turn NW for 2 they would call it WNW?

[NDG]

Got to remember that this sytem is sheared and most of that you see has to be at 10,000ft. Hard really to say with that loop exactly the pinpoint on the LLC as I see multiple little vortices.

It was being sheared, relatively speaking, when it was moving westward at fast clip earlier in the day, now that is crawling it almost non existing.

[cycloneye]

[NEXRAD]

I'll be back to the discussion in a little while, all. I want to take a closer study at the satellite imagery and latest data so I can see whether I should update my previous forecast. It's been fun watching and sharing thoughts on Fay with you all.

- Jay

[wxman57]

I'm not sure why SE FL was ever pulled from the cone in the first place? Anyway you never know NHC may keep the cone as is....and leave SE FL out of it at the 11pm EST

The NHC doesn't adjust the cone. The cone is simply a representation of the average track error over the past 5 years. It represents an area in which the TCs tracked 66% of the time. See the NHC forecast accuracy page for an explanation. It's always the exact same distance either side of the track and along the track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

Well the NHC says NW at 10mph that is what we go with.

[Evil Jeremy]

Next model run and 5 AM advisory will be interesting to see if the eastward trend continues. IMO, I think this is currently moving slower than 10 MPH.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

11pm advisory - Fay is moving NORTHWEST at 10mph.

]]

yes so maybe we can stop with the wobble watching and talk about the storm synoptics, potential strength etc..

It will take about 18 hours to move back over water once it moves over land. In if it slows down it maybe slightly longer, this is because of the west motion and the fact that the island curves to the north as the system moves more westward.

It could be Good for Fay if she stays weak right now. If she develops a innercore it will effect her more.

[lbvbl]

so no change on the track then, huh?

[gatorcane]

well the new NHC guidance shows Fay becoming a hurricane more quickly approaching the Greater Tampa Bay area (the dotted line)....note the cone of course..

are they going to suggest maybe a CAT 2 in the discussion?

[Dean4Storms]

Got to remember that this sytem is sheared and most of that you see has to be at 10,000ft. Hard really to say with that loop exactly the pinpoint on the LLC as I see multiple little vortices.

It was being sheared, relatively speaking, when it was moving westward at fast clip earlier in the day, now that is crawling it almost non existing.

Check WV loop and you'll see that it is still being sheared slightly from the SW from the ULL to its west. Outflow to the west and SW is very restricted.

[lbvbl]

well the new NHC guidance shows Fay becoming a hurricane more quickly approaching the Greater Tampa Bay area (the dotted line)....note the cone of course..

are they going to suggest maybe a CAT 2 in the discussion?

but other than that, no shift to the East as was expected.

[NDG]

I just don't see Fay moving that fast by Tuesday after the trough starts lifting out, I would not be surprised if it does something similar to a blend between the 18z GFS & 12z Euro.

[Extremeweatherguy]

so no change on the track then, huh?

Slightly further east. Landfall now expected near St. Petersburg.

[fasterdisaster]

She actually looks like she's almost a hurricane

[CalmBeforeStorm]

According to the new discussion both the position and the forecast are low confidence.

[wxman57]

"RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR
DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST."

Seems to counter the assessment that it's forming a core. The 45 kt assessment may be generous. They're just assuming such winds may exist though the plane couldn't find them. Watch for an east track shift overnight.

Going to bed.

[johngaltfla]

to me it looks like Fay's main energy is heading right towards Southern FL (SE FL and FL Keys)...but the center could be moving WNW-NW....its hard to say.

NW at 10 mph per the advisory. I think the next 6-8 hours will confirm the models unfortunately. Guess I'll be up at daylight boarding up.

Ugh.

This is not to discount a rather drastic move to the NE, but I've seen this movie before back in 2004 and it is how I found S2K.

Would someone please put a stake in the heart of this Charley path once and for all. 48 hours of fun, games and terror dead ahead for us fun lovers on the West Coast. Good luck to all....