ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txwatcher91]

I did a GR2 estimate and at the current speed and motion it should cross Cuba in about 8 hours. Anyone see the NNW movement I see?
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Clipper96]

Mayhap my eyes deceive me, but is there a mid-level circulation SW of the big radar echo?

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

I'm wondering if that echo will lean west as it goes around.

[AdamFirst]

Interesting view from the Pico San Juan radar!

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[HURAKAN]

Key West.

[SouthFLTropics]

I did a GR2 estimate and at the current speed and motion it should cross Cuba in about 8 hours. Anyone see the NNW movement I see?
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

I am leaning towards agreeing with you...Based on radar it does appear to be NNW. Without recon and surface obs it is very difficult. I wonder if the Castro's would grant us some airspace to do some recon. Sure would be nice...

NEED MORE RECON BABY!!!

I'm possibly smelling an Irene 99 suprise here. Let's hope that isn't the case.

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SFT

[Sanibel]

If the center follows that convection you'll see a track change east at 2am.

[Evil Jeremy]

If the center follows that convection you'll see a track change east at 2am.

You mean 5. New cone comes at 5.

[SouthFLTropics]

If the center follows that convection you'll see a track change east at 2am.

Forecast tracks are only changed at 5 and 11.

SFT

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
Wind gusts to 110 mph forecasted along the Pinellas County
Coastline.

Also, the tropical storm force windfield is huge and
will likely bring 50-70 mph to the entire peninsula,
with SE FL getting 60 mph easily in strong squalls.

[lbvbl]

so are we expecting another shift East for the 5am advisory? Is the northwest motion that is currently taking place on track with NHC's model?

[cpdaman]

a worse case would be the trough sucking her NW/NNW tonite a bit faster (and then as short wave axis passes by morn) leaves her spinning/drifting in the fla straits tommorow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Clipper96]

Also, the tropical storm force windfield is huge and
will likely bring 50-70 mph to the entire peninsula, with SE FL getting 60 mph easily in strong squalls.

And tornadoes. Charley had a bunch of those in the northeast bands.

[jhpigott]

we certainly don't want to see Fay scooting across Cuba with any speed and then taking her good ole' time crossing the hot tub we call the Florida Straits

[cpdaman]

not the smartest storm

headed right at the highest peak (3000 feet)

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Recurve]

a worse case would be the trough sucking her NW/NNW tonite a bit faster (and then as short wave axis passes by morn) leaves her spinning/drifting in the fla straits tommorow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

certainly seem possible. Doesn't seem to happen much in tracks I've seen. Wouldn't easterlies filling in get it moving w again?

[txwatcher91]

About to hit land, about 5 miles off shore according to Key West radar.

[baygirl_1]

I thought y'all might want to check this out: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?tstamp=200808 This is Jeff Master's WunderBlog from 12:51 AM GMT today. There's an anecdote in there that Jeff posted from a man over in Magnolia Springs, AL (just across the bay from us) about sea turtle nesting patterns and hurricanes. If that method's reliable, than Fay should not be making landfall on the North Gulf Coast. Of course, I believe sea turtles nest in South Florida, too... so, I'm not sure how that figures into the equation... Oh well, it's interesting.

[cpdaman]

i sure don't think that is very likely but who knows i think the "hills" will take a big toll on her tonite thru morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

not the smartest storm

headed right at the highest peak (3000 feet)

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

The highest point of Cuba is less than 2000 feet, and it is on the other side of the island.

[Canelaw99]

They do nest in S FL - especially on Ft Lauderdale beach. I know there are several nests there now....season is March-Oct I believe. After reading that "forecast", it'll be interesting to see where Fay ends up. Of course, if she hits anywhere in S FL (including Key West), she'd be within 200 miles of my parents' place right at the beach....we'll see in the next few days