ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AJC3]

For reference, Pico San Juan is at 21 deg 59 min (21.98) north, 80 deg 9 min (80.15) west

[AdamFirst]

The Euro and GFS are agreeing on a stall and turn back west. Very interesting. I wonder if it could pull a Jeanne and come back to bite us.

Where would this stall occur?

[cpdaman]

she appears that her improving LLC structure may move juuuust west of the small mountain range but barely

and yes where do the two models call for a stall

[Clipper96]

The Euro and GFS are agreeing on a stall and turn back west. Very interesting. I wonder if it could pull a Jeanne and come back to bite us.

I'd been thinking about that too. That high-pressuring building into the east coast is very strong.

BTW, I swear you can see an eyewall on Key West radar now; looks like a green and yellow Apple Jack Cheerio.

[Blown Away]

Local Met saying LLC could reform to the E under the deep convection and said we should be watching this much closer here in SFL. What does all this say about the strength of the Bermuda High?

[AdamFirst]

Key West radar makes it look like she's moving at a good cut. It's going to be interesting how the RECON gets info on the storm since it's smack dab right in Cuba right now.

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

The Euro and GFS are agreeing on a stall and turn back west. Very interesting. I wonder if it could pull a Jeanne and come back to bite us.

Where would this stall occur?

Euro says just offshore E from Melbourne then retrograde westward across central FL

GFS says just offshore E from Palm Coast/St Augustine, then retrograde WSW towards the GOM

Very interesting that they both are showing something very similar

[lbvbl]

can someone please post a link for the new GFS

[Sanibel]

Let's not talk ourselves into something that may not be happening. There's still solid guidance under the ridge periphery. The bursting top is moving up into the southerly steering layer NEXRAD was talking about. THAT is why it is jacking NNW. The center, however, is still moving NW along the ridge periphery. The upper swirl looks NNW because the ULL is still close enough to push it that way. The LLC isn't that far into the convection CDO on its SW edge. It's track is still fairly close to the NHC track.

I'm thinking this will still do the NHC track but maybe a nick right.

[Blown Away]

Has a named storm ever crossed over FL from the SW and came back to hit FL again? I know Ivan did, it was just a low when it crossed Central FL then moved into the Gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

Key West radar makes it look like she's moving at a good cut. It's going to be interesting how the RECON gets info on the storm since it's smack dab right in Cuba right now.

Unfortunately due to politics the center fix will only be an estimate if it is (which it appears to be) in Cuban airspace. Could have significant impacts to the model output. The better data into the models means the better reliability we will have on them. Unfortunately it's a case of garbage in and garbage out :can:

SFT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

[Blown Away]

Euro says just offshore E from Melbourne then retrograde westward across central FL
GFS says just offshore E from Palm Coast/St Augustine, then retrograde WSW towards the GOM
Very interesting that they both are showing something very similar

As long as the system is not real strong, that would be so cool to see a named system cross FL out into the Atlantic and turn around and come back! Not going to happen but it would be cool!

[Sanibel]

That's an upper reflection. I believe the LLC is still over water and headed NW.

[GreenSky]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

Great! Fay should not be anything more than a tropical storm when it hits SW Florida because she will have less time over water and will be SEVERELY DISRUPTED by land interaction with that central Cuban mountain range!

[Ground_Zero_92]

Key West radar makes it look like she's moving at a good cut. It's going to be interesting how the RECON gets info on the storm since it's smack dab right in Cuba right now.

Unfortunately due to politics the center fix will only be an estimate if it is (which it appears to be) in Cuban airspace. Could have significant impacts to the model output. The better data into the models means the better reliability we will have on them. Unfortunately it's a case of garbage in and garbage out :can:

SFT

Cuba does not allow the Airforce Hurricane Hunter Aircraft over thier airspace. However, they do allow the NOAA aircraft into thier airspace, since that is a civilian aircraft. I'm not sure when NOAA is making the flights into Fay though.

[SouthFLTropics]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

I think she should go and tackle Everest and K2 next!!! Maybe she'll to death...

SFT

[AdamFirst]

That's an upper reflection. I believe the LLC is still over water and headed NW.

The entire system itself on water vapor seems to be heading north-northwest.

[funster]

Agree with @Sanibel that Fay is still moving NW on the NHC track. It is not suddenly headed off to the North - that's just the convection expanding in the storm as Fay continues to get better organized.