ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

That upper burst could very well pull the LLC NNW. Watch for landfall around Bay of Pigs or slightly east of there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Key West radar makes it look like she's moving at a good cut. It's going to be interesting how the RECON gets info on the storm since it's smack dab right in Cuba right now.

Unfortunately due to politics the center fix will only be an estimate if it is (which it appears to be) in Cuban airspace. Could have significant impacts to the model output. The better data into the models means the better reliability we will have on them. Unfortunately it's a case of garbage in and garbage out :can:

SFT

Cuba does not allow the Airforce Hurricane Hunter Aircraft over thier airspace. However, they do allow the NOAA aircraft into thier airspace, since that is a civilian aircraft. I'm not sure when NOAA is making the flights into Fay though.

Thank you for the clarification...I wasn't sure on the specifics of the foreign policy...

SFT

[AdamFirst]

Cuba does not allow the Airforce Hurricane Hunter Aircraft over thier airspace. However, they do allow the NOAA aircraft into thier airspace, since that is a civilian aircraft. I'm not sure when NOAA is making the flights into Fay though.

Unfortunately the Air Force RECON is en route to the storm.

I suggest they land in Key West and not waste fuel waiting for the storm to emerge.

[Evil Jeremy]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

Great! Fay should not be anything more than a tropical storm when it hits SW Florida because she will have less time over water and will be SEVERELY DISRUPTED by land interaction with that central Cuban mountain range!

There is no central Cuban Mountain range!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How many times must it be said that central and western Cuba are made up of mostly hills and flat land, save for a mountain or two.

[NEXRAD]

Euro says just offshore E from Melbourne then retrograde westward across central FL
GFS says just offshore E from Palm Coast/St Augustine, then retrograde WSW towards the GOM
Very interesting that they both are showing something very similar

As long as the system is not real strong, that would be so cool to see a named system cross FL out into the Atlantic and turn around and come back! Not going to happen but it would be cool!

It would be interesting, but has anyone checked the QPF's for Fay? The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows most of the Florida Peninsula under 3 to 6 inches of rain from Fay, some locations near the storm's path and over South Florida possibly seeing upwards 9-inches. A looping storm system would seriously heighten the flood risk.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

I think she should go and tackle Everest and K2 next!!! Maybe she'll to death...

SFT

yeah fay sure is one crazy...............uh...girl

i think she is mocking that little mountain, we shall see one thing is for certain.......there is much uncertainty....and when two respected models start doing some crazy stuff we know that we are in for a very interesting MONDAY.

[jhpigott]

That upper burst could very well pull the LLC NNW. Watch for landfall around Bay of Pigs or slightly east of there.

if the LLC hasn't already relocated . . . the 5pm discussion mentioned the elongation of the LLC, probably already feeling at that time the tug/pulling under the convection, wouldn't shock me if RECON found the center already inland

[AdamFirst]

Agree with @Sanibel that Fay is still moving NW on the NHC track. It is not suddenly headed off to the North - that's just the convection expanding in the storm as Fay continues to get better organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can't say that doesn't look significant going over Cuba right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

Great! Fay should not be anything more than a tropical storm when it hits SW Florida because she will have less time over water and will be SEVERELY DISRUPTED by land interaction with that central Cuban mountain range!

There is no central Cuban Mountain range!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How many times must it be said that central and western Cuba are made up of mostly hills and flat land, save for a mountain or two.

There is a 3,000 foot mountain to its north. That is a mountain even where I'm. Sorry!!!

[funster]

That upper burst could very well pull the LLC NNW. Watch for landfall around Bay of Pigs or slightly east of there.

if the LLC hasn't already relocated . . . the 5pm discussion mentioned the elongation of the LLC, probably already feeling at that time the tug/pulling under the convection, wouldn't shock me if RECON found the center already inland

It would shock me because I think Fay is still moving NW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro says just offshore E from Melbourne then retrograde westward across central FL
GFS says just offshore E from Palm Coast/St Augustine, then retrograde WSW towards the GOM
Very interesting that they both are showing something very similar

As long as the system is not real strong, that would be so cool to see a named system cross FL out into the Atlantic and turn around and come back! Not going to happen but it would be cool!

It would be interesting, but has anyone checked the QPF's for Fay? The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows most of the Florida Peninsula under 3 to 6 inches of rain from Fay, some locations near the storm's path and over South Florida possibly seeing upwards 9-inches. A looping storm system would seriously heighten the flood risk.

- Jay

Everyone has been wanting to see the water restrictions end down here...Fay might be the answer. I wonder what the Lake O level will be when this is all over. A good soaking could be just what the doctor ordered. Unfortunately there will probably be some urban flooding at the same time though.

SFT

[Ground_Zero_92]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

Great! Fay should not be anything more than a tropical storm when it hits SW Florida because she will have less time over water and will be SEVERELY DISRUPTED by land interaction with that central Cuban mountain range!

There is no central Cuban Mountain range!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How many times must it be said that central and western Cuba are made up of mostly hills and flat land, save for a mountain or two.

LOL! too much coffee Jeremy??

[cpdaman]

yes i am very concerned about flooding , i think someone will see a foot easily from fay and should she loop .........bad bad news

sanibel interesting perspective on the radar reflection being a little off (deflection or something) perhaps that is why the radar presentation still looks good, and that is why i thougth she may have moved just left of the little mountain,maybe.

[HURAKAN]

Because Fay is impacting Cuba, we have a 'storm' clearance meaning we can get inside of the 32NM Cuban ADIZ (32NM is the cushion set up from the US Gov't). We were talking with Havana Center while we were flying yesterday... and so is today's aircraft.

Cuba is giving permission for the plane to fly over their airspace. That was the last AF RECON plotted. Another mission is getting closer to Cuba.

[GreenSky]

There is a 3,000 foot mountain to its north. That is a mountain even where I'm. Sorry!!![/quote]

Matt, so do you agree with what I said? That 3,000 mountain should prevent Fay from ever becoming a hurricane before reaching SW Florida, right?

[funster]

Agree with @Sanibel that Fay is still moving NW on the NHC track. It is not suddenly headed off to the North - that's just the convection expanding in the storm as Fay continues to get better organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can't say that doesn't look significant going over Cuba right now.

It's the convection around Fay expanding. It's not Fay crossing Cuba.

[srainhoutx]

I suggest they land in Key West and not waste fuel waiting for the storm to emerge.[/quote]

RECON refueled in EYW during a Rita mission. Interesting as the runway had not been extended at that time. What a takeoff. Boca Chica NAS had been evacuated forcing the AF C-130 to use the 4800ft runway at EYW at that time. It was a sight.

[SouthFLTropics]

That upper burst could very well pull the LLC NNW. Watch for landfall around Bay of Pigs or slightly east of there.

if the LLC hasn't already relocated . . . the 5pm discussion mentioned the elongation of the LLC, probably already feeling at that time the tug/pulling under the convection, wouldn't shock me if RECON found the center already inland

It would shock me because I think Fay is still moving NW.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that based on the current images I'm seeing (radar and IR) she is already onshore. I know, I know, IR is not good to judge movement, but it's just my amatuer opinion.

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

Cuba's Highest Point: Pico Turquino 2,005 M

[HURAKAN]

People, don't continue to argue where the center is, wait for the RECON to arrive. It will save you time and effort!!!