ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[lbvbl]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

[Clipper96]

The back side of whatever's left of the eyewall will be clearing the worst terrain near Pico San Juan within half an hour.

I don't think that was an eyewall. The NHC should locate the actual center soon.

The thread consensus at the moment appears to be that this is the center.

What we apparently have now is a storm that is looking better than expected which is moving to the right of forecast and faster. If the present course does not deviate (and it may), it is moving generally toward Marathon Key. That severe-looking outer band will be upon the intercoastal highway by midday by my estimation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Orion and hiflyer, check out AJC3's post above. He confirms that what we are seeing on radar is almost certainly the center.

[AdamFirst]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

Dade, Broward and Monroe schools are closed

Palm Beach is still open, but they can always switch to a half-day

[Jevo]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

Broward, dade, and Monroe county schools are closed tomorrow

[Ground_Zero_92]

Orion and hiflyer, check out AJC3's post above. He confirms that what we are seeing on radar is almost certainly the center.

Let's see where the 2am advisory puts the center. That will confirm it. I wonder if they will delay it a bit to allow the plance to get there.

[lbvbl]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

Dade, Broward and Monroe schools are closed

Palm Beach is still open, but they can always switch to a half-day

That actually seems like it would be the way to go rather than completely cancelling the first day. They need to take into account the extreme uncertainy as to the track, intensity, and timing of landfall.

[AdamFirst]

I believe they will delay the 2AM until the plane does its thing. There needs to be no misinformation for a situation like this

[Clipper96]

Wow...that newest radar frame at 1:51 EDT is nuts.
I gather the innermost circulation has cleared Pico San Juan.

[hiflyer]

Orion and hiflyer, check out AJC3's post above. He confirms that what we are seeing on radar is almost certainly the center.

See...now that would not be good as it would mean both the northern and southern edge was over water and the denser returns would start growing in the middle of that blob over the relative flatter landmass....

oh...they are....isn't that interesting.....grin.

[Normandy]

Agreeing with ACJ3 here that indeed the center of Fay has made landfall and is moving NNW towards the Florida straights. Stunning developments here imo. Shows we have soooooooooo much to learn about Tropical Cyclone forecasting. Way East of the NHC track right now

[RL3AO]

I believe they will delay the 2AM until the plane does its thing. There needs to be no misinformation for a situation like this

They won't delay the advisory 30 minutes. If there is a drastic change, and update will be issued with the new info and if need be, a special advisory issued soon after.

[CourierPR]

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

They still have time to cancel or send students home early tomorrow/

[Jason_B]

Unlikely but it would be crazy if this thing just jets due north and hits South Florida by tomorrow afternoon, only reason I say that is because it does look like it's picking up speed.

[Aric Dunn]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Good point, Mike. Does anyone have the site that shows how high up in the atmosphere the radar is actually "seeing" based on tilt angle and distance from radar? I think I have seen it on S2K before but can't find it and no luck googling yet.

yeah mike im going to have to disagree with you on this one..

its hard to believe it happend that fast

but the fact that it went right over the radar site is a pretty good give away

[Sal Collaziano]

Sure. Why not? In New York, they make these calls early in the morning when snow storms turn out to be worse than expected...

The decision to keep schools open seems pretty bad now.

Could they possibly call it off in the morning?

[AJC3]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so it's looking at 3000-3500 feet up at most.

[AdamFirst]

I think the NHC is delaying...I don't see a new advisory yet

[Normandy]

Not only does Cuban radar support this, long ranges out of BOTH Miami and Key West show this feature VERY well....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Its really hard to believe, and I will wait for recon to confirm. But I am almost certain that is it. That convection fired over the LLC earlier, and once it fired it headed straight NNW into Cuba. Radar suggests a VERY tight center.

[Ground_Zero_92]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so 3000-3500 feet tops.

Looks like it's sprinting to the warmer water in the Florida Straits. Amazing storm.