ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Clipper96]

Seeing reds in the central cells again on Key West long-range.

Fay is actually re-intensifying while over land.

[MWatkins]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Nope. Not a chance, Mike. This feature tracked right over the Pico San Juan radar. It was in the same place on KBYX, and the three cuban radars. It's the center.

In that case...and after looking at everything again...I agree with you AJC3...it looks like the GFS/GFDL suite is in the early lead. The center is going to pop off the north coast in a matter of hours.

MW

[Evil Jeremy]

Seeing reds in the central cells again.

Fay is actually re-intensifying while over land.

Just like Hispaniola.

[lbvbl]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so it's looking at 3000-3500 feet up at most.

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

[hiflyer]

Hmmm...we start pulling 30kt gusts and a lot of aircraft are gonna be over their crosswind landing capability....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.AVIATION...
AWAITING RAIN BANDS FM TROPICAL STORM FAY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER
S FLA FM S TO N THRU PD. AT ISSUANCE TAFS ALL VFR AT LEAST THRU
12Z BUT XPCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP WITH INTERMITTENT IFR IN HVY
RA AND PSBL CIGS TO SPRD FM S TO N AS BANDS MOVE N WITH FAY
MVMNT. WNDS GUSTS CONCERN IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ATLC MOVES
ONSHR AND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30KT IN PRECIP. OTRW...INCRG SE WIND
ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

[shah8]

I know I am disagreeing with a pro-met here, but...

I think elementary geometry and logic says that the feature on land is convection thrown up by an MLC by the central mountain. The LLC would have had to a) stop on a dime and b) race northwards at some double digit speed that's either in the high teens or low twenties.

[orion]

Yep... I agree. I was looking at Key West radar and assuming I was seeing midlevel circulation. Fay continues to shake things up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With Fay's inner core looking so good over land, I would not be at all surprised to see a quick intensification once she gets back over water.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Not only does Cuban radar support this, long ranges out of BOTH Miami and Key West show this feature VERY well....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Its really hard to believe, and I will wait for recon to confirm. But I am almost certain that is it. That convection fired over the LLC earlier, and once it fired it headed straight NNW into Cuba. Radar suggests a VERY tight center.

She does that alot doesn't it. Strengthens right before landfall. If this is a trend, I think she'll only be a strong TS at landfall. Still, that could cause quite some damage.

[AdamFirst]

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

Nope. Once the convection found the circulation it was pedal to the metal.

[Ground_Zero_92]

This time lapse pretty much speaks for itself. The vortex passes right over the radar site, which at most is about the height of Pico San Juan + maybe 100 feet for the tower...so it's looking at 3000-3500 feet up at most.

is it just me, or does it appear that it has REALLY sped up?

No it's not just you. Lets see what the 2am advisory says. But it looks like Fay woke the heck up and is running to the Florida Straits.

[blp]

Seeing reds in the central cells again.

Fay is actually re-intensifying while over land.

Just like Hispaniola.

Wait till everyone wakes up in the morning. I haven't put my shutters, maybee I should in a few hours....

[Clipper96]

There's a pretty nasty-looking bow-echo developing in the band heading toward Key West. No warnings yet....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... Z&loop=yes

[BigA]

Seeing reds in the central cells again on Key West long-range.

Fay is actually re-intensifying while over land.

Those colors may be due to Fay getting closer to the radar site, Key west. However, I have noticed that storms that are intensifying when they make landfall tend to lose less strength than those that are weakening, for fairly obvious reasons.

[Normandy]

When a circulation goes over a radar site, it most certainly is not just a mid level circulation. I am fairly confident that is the center of Fay. Check out a long loop of Fay, and youll notice that convection explosed over Fay's LLC while South of Cuba, and since then this convection has raced NNW.

[Bocadude85]

see i knew i wasnt crazy i pointed out the key west radar a long time ago...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W OR ABOUT 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER FAY
COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN
72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS CENTRAL CUBA FROM E
OF CAMAGUEY TO W OF SANTA CLARA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N25N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND UPDATE WILL FOLLOW.

[Jason_B]

It has certainly sped up, that's why I think residents in the keys and South Florida are going to wake up to a bit of a surprise.

[AdamFirst]

Unfortunately I believe millions of people are going to be caught off guard by this.

[CourierPR]

One note...

Key West radar looking down there will be seeing the mid levels...not the low levels. My guess is the center is still offshore...with a tilted vortex due to weakening shear from the ULL to the west...

MW

Nope. Not a chance, Mike. This feature tracked right over the Pico San Juan radar. It was in the same place on KBYX, and the three cuban radars. It's the center.

In that case...and after looking at everything again...I agree with you AJC3...it looks like the GFS/GFDL suite is in the early lead. The center is going to pop off the north coast in a matter of hours.

MW

Is rapid deepening possible?