ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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blp
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Re:

#7561 Postby blp » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:13 am

HURAKAN wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W OR ABOUT 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER FAY
COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN
72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS CENTRAL CUBA FROM E
OF CAMAGUEY TO W OF SANTA CLARA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N25N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND UPDATE WILL FOLLOW.


21.4N 80.6W .... that has to be wrong. According to Google Earth that is south of Cuba over the water...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7562 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:13 am

Watkins.... Mayfield called the NHC and said..

GET EM OUT OF THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol: (inside joke)
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7563 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:14 am

lbvbl wrote:oh okay, that makes a lot of sense. Why does it skip like that, though?


Lapses in radar coverage.

Could be a storm issue, or a power thing, or laziness, or whatever.

And those coordinates listed in the Tropical Weather Discussion are from the 11 PM
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#7564 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:14 am

I have a list in the prep thread.
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Re: Re:

#7565 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:15 am

blp wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W OR ABOUT 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY
WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER FAY
COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN
72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS CENTRAL CUBA FROM E
OF CAMAGUEY TO W OF SANTA CLARA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N25N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND UPDATE WILL FOLLOW.


21.4N 80.6W .... that has to be wrong. According to Google Earth that is south of Cuba over the water...
They still use the old advisory info, so do not expect it to be accurate until after the NHC updates issues a new advisory.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7566 Postby hiflyer » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:15 am

Jevo wrote:Watkins.... Mayfield called the NHC and said..

GET EM OUT OF THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol: (inside joke)


Hey Jevo...watch out...little cell coming ashore by KFLL...may lose power...grin
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#7567 Postby shah8 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:15 am

guys, seriously...the location of the center(s) that I see *east* of the NHC forcast point at 11 PM (21.4M 80.6W)! Check out where 80.6W is on that radar.
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Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#7568 Postby lbvbl » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:16 am

Anyone have any ideas about what PBC schools will be doing?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7569 Postby blp » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:16 am

Look at the latest key west radar 2:10am you can see what appears like an eyewall...
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Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#7570 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:17 am

lbvbl wrote:Anyone have any ideas about what PBC schools will be doing?


So far, they are open tomorrow, though there is speculation that they might have a half day tomorrow. It is not to late for minor changes like those.
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Re:

#7571 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:17 am

shah8 wrote:guys, seriously...the location of the center(s) that I see *east* of the NHC forcast point at 11 PM (21.4M 80.6W)! Check out where 80.6W is on that radar.


Center position at 11 PM was very uncertain

now we know why
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7572 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:18 am

any promets think this would slow down a bit as it gets in the straits or are signs pointing the speed to be pretty consistent over give the latest "developments"
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#7573 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:19 am

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 180
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7574 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:19 am

hiflyer wrote:
Jevo wrote:Watkins.... Mayfield called the NHC and said..

GET EM OUT OF THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol: (inside joke)


Hey Jevo...watch out...little cell coming ashore by KFLL...may lose power...grin


I totally spent all my money on beer rather than batteries too....... GOOD CHOICE!!!
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#7575 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:20 am

The speed has me very very concerned. This thing if it keeps rolling like this those vicious outer bands will get to the Miami area in just a matter of hours.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7576 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:20 am

guys i believe eclipse ends at 615 utc , which links usually update their images fast

i usually use the ramdis floater but that is only good during day lite
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Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#7577 Postby lbvbl » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:21 am

oh really, whats causing the speculation?
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#7578 Postby Sal Collaziano » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:21 am

Updated... They still think it's going to go that far west? It seems like it's moving NNW now..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 28W_sm.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Cuba

#7579 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:22 am

Call me crazy but I don't really trust the NHC advisory right now
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Re:

#7580 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:22 am

Sal Collaziano wrote:Updated... They still think it's going to go that far west? It seems like it's moving NNW now..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 28W_sm.gif


Forecast track is never updated at intermediate advisories.
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