ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If the LLC is at 21.9/81.1 then it is about 80-100 miles west of the "rain" and the banding features. This would mean that there is some 25 knot mid level shear going through out or more. In which case I have to disagree. But I've been wrong before.

[RL3AO]

They can't go in at low levels and they can't do drops over land.

Oh, wow. Thanks Cuba.

And it WAS an inaccurate position.

Its not Cuba. Its more like mountains + plane + low altitude + night = bad.

[Scorpion]

Are there any Cuban obs?

[AdamFirst]

Well it technically is Cuba, since it's their land

I'm going to bed fellas. See you in two hours or so.

[Category 5]

They can't go in at low levels and they can't do drops over land.

Oh, wow. Thanks Cuba.

Better then them crashing into a mountain and then we have NO recon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok. I think I will go ahead and get some shut eye and see what the situation looks like in the morning. My bet is that the 5am advisory will place the center closer to where we think it is after all the data is collected.

[lbvbl]

interesting... a flash flood watch was just issued for Broward/Palm Beach counties until 8:30 tomorrow morning

[Normandy]

What recon found supports a center over inland Cuba, and it looks to be over land for the next 4-5 hours. Pressure also was very low off the south coast of Cuba, indicating a *possible* sub 1000 storm.

[funster]

It's still over water but it should be getting pretty close to making landfall in Cuba.

[Jevo]

615 Images are out...... she it looking pretty for being over land

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Category 5]

It's still over water but it should be getting pretty close to making landfall in Cuba.

Radar appears to show it inland now, check the loop a few pages back.

[Brent]

WAY east of track and inland

[Jevo]

It's still over water but it should be getting pretty close to making landfall in Cuba.

nope... look back about 3-4 pages.. the mets have already discussed that the center has come across almost 2 hours ago... she is a land lubber right now

[MWatkins]

Radar returns from Cuba suggest that the vortex could still be tilted...although not ruling out a reformation of the center under the mid-level circ...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

MW

[funster]

I'm thinking it is still just right offshore with the bulk of the convection on the right side.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks over land and half-way across the land mass;
looks to emerge into the gulf in about 2-3 hours, then
rapid intensification could bring hurricane conditions
to the straits and south florida.

[hiflyer]

EYW radar is hot....and it is amazing how much it is showing 'growth' overland and what may be the center.....some of the deeper colors are starting to fill in as apparently tops and moisture are rapidly growing during night hours....which does not bode well for anything calming down after sunrise and solar heating....ouch!

[Evil Jeremy]

not good: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[funster]

Maybe that's a dying LLC just offshore then where the NHC is looking. You can see a sort of ghostly outline of it on the radar M. Watkins just posted.radar

[Jevo]

0Z GFDL is out with a 90kt storm going into Punta Gorda

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation