ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is my first hand report from SE FL: People are not taking this threat seriously. Especially after we moved out of the cone earlier today. People are saying it is going to pass us to the west and we will get squalls and thats it. They are going to be very unprepared and shocked come morning.

[Clipper96]

I think it's still offshore, according to this radar from Punta del Este.

You don't use the Houston radar for a hurricane near Miami, so why use that radar? Use this one.

The Cuban radars tend to run thirty to forty-five minutes behind the Key West nexrad - this is probably why Fay is surprising people who had been watching Cuban radar when she was on the south coast moving slow. She suddenly veered right and picked up speed, and Pico San Juan was showing her still on the coast while Key West was showing a center well inland.

[fasterdisaster]

If this went NNE over Florida then how suitable are the Gulf Stream waters between around PB and North Carolina for strengthening?

[cpdaman]

nice visual mike , i am sort of in awe that this thing is moving like this

that rain shield is racing toward key largo (or just east of key largo)

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[NFLnut]

is the weather channell wetting their pants right now or what

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that it's too late to get Stephanie Abrams to pack all of her super-tight t-shirts and find a S. FL beach!

.. but a guy can dream ..

[leaf blower]

My guess is the centre is 1/2 way across cuba.Could almost see an eye forming on the loop below.

[cpdaman]

If this went NNE over Florida then how suitable are the Gulf Stream waters between around PB and North Carolina for strengthening?

87 of palm beach, 83-84 in GS just se runnng the coast of NC

[Bocadude85]

if thats not the center on radar then this thing has fallen apart... anyways i wonder how the NHC will handles this at 5am

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

this storm is starting to weird me out .. geeez

Agreed, I have no idea what's going on.

This thing has always been weird. It also tells me that we got a lot to learn about cyclones.

[Aric Dunn]

lol;
its a votex message


URNT12 KNHC 180735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/07:12:10Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 34 kt
E. 135 deg 089 nm
F. 187 deg 036 kt
G. 137 deg 072 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C/ 1517 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 1506A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:49:30 Z

i cant explain that !!!!!

[Clipper96]

So much precipitation has developed recently that the Key West radar beam is having a difficult time making it all the way to the center in recent frames.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I am pulling an all nighter lol, hope it pays off.

Me to...

[cpdaman]

if thats not the center on radar then this thing has fallen apart... anyways i wonder how the NHC will handles this at 5am

see mike's post lol

fay would u like to take a bath

http://www.sstcharts.com/sf_08_08_14_02_15_PM_H.shtml

lol that vortex message has me peeing myself, i'm going to take some shots of vodka right now

[funster]

Looks like the center is still slightly offshore of cuba just to the NW of where the NC had a little bit ago. There's a little inlet there. radar

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 180735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/07:12:10Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 34 kt
E. 135 deg 089 nm
F. 187 deg 036 kt
G. 137 deg 072 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C/ 1517 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 1506A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:49:30 Z


On the southern coast of cuba over the Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory will be coming in about an hour now. Gonna pass the time the American way, watching cartoons until you forget that a force of nature is about to slam into you.

[Clipper96]

My guess is the centre is 1/2 way across cuba.Could almost see an eye forming on the loop below.

There was an eyewall radar signature shortly after landfall, so it wouldn't be surprising.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

lol;
its a votex message


URNT12 KNHC 180735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/07:12:10Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 34 kt
E. 135 deg 089 nm
F. 187 deg 036 kt
G. 137 deg 072 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C/ 1517 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 1506A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:49:30 Z

i cant explain that !!!!!

Must be 40 knots of upper and mid level shear to do this to this system. WOW! Naked LLC Later today.

[cpdaman]

URNT12 KNHC 180735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/07:12:10Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 34 kt
E. 135 deg 089 nm
F. 187 deg 036 kt
G. 137 deg 072 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C/ 1517 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 1506A FAY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 06:49:30 Z


On the southern coast of cuba over the Caribbean.

that was sobering .......are u sure or what's going on.

[DAVE440]

Ok..... earlier I said I was confused bcus the jet stream was supposed to be moving south and the high was supposed to weaken or be pushed to the east a bit by the jet stream....... And I wanted to know why forecast tracks were still moving to the west. Guess everyone was caught up bcus no one responded to that query.

NOW ....it appears....(unless I'm just over tired...and I am) that this thing is moving north? At least on the IR2 satellite loop I just looked at. If so... perhaps the factors I mentioned are coming into play now...or something else is affecting it. That...or its just late...and I'm already asleep and dreaming that I'm seeing an expanding storm moving northward. Someone else want to confirm this?

IR2 satellite loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html