ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Clipper96]

West and southwest sides of the eyewall now visible, and 40DBZ despite the range and intervening precipitation.

Judging from the apparent motion, Key West is in the line.

[funster]

Did they give a new center estimate?

[Aric Dunn]

Did they give a new center estimate?

not yet

[RL3AO]

Did they give a new center estimate?

No. They can't to a dropsonde over land so no VDM.

[cpdaman]

Did they give a new center estimate?

not yet

they are cleaning up the pee first, look at the latest radar i haven't extrapolated a forward motion but it appears to me she is now on or very close to the n. shore of cuba.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[Bocadude85]

West and southwest sides of the eyewall now visible, and 40DBZ despite the range and intervening precipitation.

Judging from the apparent motion, Key West is in the line.

id say more marathom or islamorada

[Clipper96]

id say more marathom or islamorada

Assuming a right slant, yes. But for now, the "eye" is on a heading toward KW.

"Eye" now visible on Key West short-range radar, and is it ever moving quick: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... R&loop=yes

[Ground_Zero_92]

Well it looks like we had a center reformation overnight. Looks like Fay is moving NW, which it is supposed to be at this time, except more north and east of where she is supposed to be. If this all pans out and the NHC thinking is still on track with general movement NW, then NNW and N, we are probably looking at a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota. The GFS had this scenario and then taking it NE and out to the Atlantic.

This is not an official forecast. Just my interpretention of the current scenario.

[cpdaman]

wait in case anyone is interested this radar shows center much clearer

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

updated thru 415 am

well i hope the forward motion continues because she may start to intensify rapidly now that she is half way over water (it's 430 am)

[funster]

"Eye" now visible on Key West short-range radar, and is it ever moving quick: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... R&loop=yes

Just looks like some intense rain bands there.

[RL3AO]

wait in case anyone is interested this radar shows center much clearer

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

updated thru 415 am

well i hope the forward motion continues because she may start to intensify rapidly now that she is half way over water (it's 430 am)

That matches up perfectly with the recon center over central Cuba.

[cpdaman]

Well it looks like we had a center reformation overnight. Looks like Fay is moving NW, which it is supposed to be at this time, except more north and east of where she is supposed to be. If this all pans out and the NHC thinking is still on track with general movement NW, then NNW and N, we are probably looking at a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota. The GFS had this scenario and then taking it NE and out to the Atlantic.

This is not an official forecast. Just my interpretention of the current scenario.

are you related to funster lol kidding funster

this heading is NNW not nw and it's not a reformation we watched it for the last 5 hours

it is headed toward the middle keys IMO and this is not official

[leaf blower]

Ther'll be some pretty surprized folks on the south tip of florida waking up this morning with probably a strong TS or borderline cane bearing down on them.

[CourierPR]

Well it looks like we had a center reformation overnight. Looks like Fay is moving NW, which it is supposed to be at this time, except more north and east of where she is supposed to be. If this all pans out and the NHC thinking is still on track with general movement NW, then NNW and N, we are probably looking at a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota. The GFS had this scenario and then taking it NE and out to the Atlantic.

This is not an official forecast. Just my interpretention of the current scenario.

I see a NNW motion.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Well it looks like we had a center reformation overnight. Looks like Fay is moving NW, which it is supposed to be at this time, except more north and east of where she is supposed to be. If this all pans out and the NHC thinking is still on track with general movement NW, then NNW and N, we are probably looking at a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota. The GFS had this scenario and then taking it NE and out to the Atlantic.

This is not an official forecast. Just my interpretention of the current scenario.

are you related to funster lol kidding funster

this heading is NNW not nw and it's not a reformation we watched it for the last 5 hours

it is headed toward the middle keys IMO and this is not official

No I don't know anyone names Funster. But the center did move into the heavy convention when it was still south of the Cuban coast. I've been up all night too. And while it did move NNW as it was crossing Cuba, It now looks to me like its moving more NW than NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Well it looks like we had a center reformation overnight. Looks like Fay is moving NW, which it is supposed to be at this time, except more north and east of where she is supposed to be. If this all pans out and the NHC thinking is still on track with general movement NW, then NNW and N, we are probably looking at a landfall between Fort Myers and Sarasota. The GFS had this scenario and then taking it NE and out to the Atlantic.

This is not an official forecast. Just my interpretention of the current scenario.

It actually did not reform< it was moving NNW the whole time

[funster]

wait in case anyone is interested this radar shows center much clearer

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

updated thru 415 am

well i hope the forward motion continues because she may start to intensify rapidly now that she is half way over water (it's 430 am)

looks good there. guess my old llc ghost buddy died and went to heaven.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Another 3 hours on its current motion, but 5-6 more hours if it turns more westward. This is to make it back to water.

[Clipper96]

After a fast NW/NNW jaunt over the island, I'm guessing Fay will slow down and turn left, or NW or even WNW, for several hours during the morning, before resuming NNW or N.

[Ground_Zero_92]

After a fast NW/NNW jaunt over the island, I'm guessing Fay will slow down and turn left, or NW or even WNW, for several hours during the morning, before resuming NNW or N.

Exactly what I'm thinking