ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

As before radar probably isn't great for seeing where the center is in a sheared system because all the precip tend sot be on one side.

Also yep the ULL seems to if anything gone slightly east again overnight and shear has increased making it look like this system has gone NNE when in fact its just the convection getting blown off IMO. Track to the NNW-N looking best as Derek states.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the Discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY
CONNECTED. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR. GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[SouthFLTropics]

I just read the discussion and I got the impression that Franklin is holding his cards really close to his chest on this one. I would not have wanted to be in his shoes this morning, that's for sure.

SFT

[KWT]

Also I think the only way this has a shot at being a hurricane is if it does take an Irene track.

The Vis.imagery will give a very good idea as to just how exposed any circulation may be.

[cpdaman]

appears the ULL is tracking NE next to fay

this could be a "rocket ship shear job right up the se coast" clouds are pointing that way

no longer am i as concerned about strengthening with that ULL shearing big time

[johngaltfla]

That was one of the more interesting discussions. I hope no one lets their guard down if you just to the north of us. It could still get "interesting" before all is said and done once the storm crosses Cuba.

[Derek Ortt]

I've been saying TS winds for Miami for a couple of days and no reason why to change that

think the chances of hurricane just dropped like a brick this morning

[KWT]

Yep indeed cpdaman it does seem to be doing that, you can pretty much rule out a hurricane if that keeps where it is now...however I do think its going to drop back eventually and given the deep convection is still fairly close to the center its still got a chance, we've seen these sheared systems get to hurricane status before but not likely.

[cpdaman]

derek what do you think for rain totals , seems like east coast will be wetter , with this sheared thing 3-5 ?

[Evil Jeremy]

I am reminded alot of Ernesto from a few years ago. The cone kept of shifting, and eventually it headed to FL from the south as a weak TS, while Hurricane Watches were up everywhere. I think this will end up similar, although stronger. No hurricane this time though.

[cpdaman]

wxman 57 what are your thoughts on the ULL's motion today, will it continue to be riding up ..um....next to fay

[KWT]

Also looks like its going to get caught by the trough digging down, its flattening out from the west but not in time for it not to connect to it and get lifted out it seems and if that happens its a terrible bust for the models bar ECM. If that hpapens east coast still needs to watch this...

[SouthFLTropics]

Also looks like its going to get caught by the trough digging down, its flattening out from the west but not in time for it not to connect to it and get lifted out it seems and if that happens its a terrible bust for the models bar ECM. If that hpapens east coast still needs to watch this...

GFS and the Euro had this exact solution last night...Stalling off of the east coast and then moving back west as the high built back in. The ULL though thrown everything out the window on this one.

SFT

[KWT]

We will have to wait and see though, from the sounds of things the NHC discussion still has faith in the models such as the GFDL etc which have this hitting S/C Florida.

[cpdaman]

Also looks like its going to get caught by the trough digging down, its flattening out from the west but not in time for it not to connect to it and get lifted out it seems and if that happens its a terrible bust for the models bar ECM. If that hpapens east coast still needs to watch this...

GFS and the Euro had this exact solution last night...Stalling off of the east coast and then moving back west as the high built back in. The ULL though thrown everything out the window on this one.

SFT

well should the mechanism pushing the ull along chill out i could easily see the trough missing fay and then perhaps her slowing, this is what i was concerned about earlier, and i am still a lil bit now, but no one seems to have a handle on this ull

i'm gonna take a stab in the dark and say the trough that was digging SE (over se us) was acting as the mechanism forcing the ULL East, and then as the trough axis lifts out the ULL may slow down and allow for fay to slow down a bit , and potentially strengthen, now can anyone tell me this is ridiculous?

[KWT]

I think looking at everything the key is going to be where exactly is the LLC and how well stacked is it still with the convection. If it tires to stick with the convection then its going to end up head N/NNE but the steering currents really favor a NNW track to remain the case and for now thats what I think will happen, maybe a northerly track eventually into S.Florida.

[wxman57]

Well, it doesn't seem to be heading for the FL Panhandle this morning, as per those "worthless" models I mentioned yesterday. Nor is it quite at hurricane intensity. Few believed me when I said it would be generous to go with 60 mph as it crossed Cuba 2 days ago and it wouldn't be 65 mph coming off Cuba as per the NHC forecasts. Anyway, if anything, it's right of the consensus models this morning as it emerges into the FL Straits by about 100 miles. Fay is looking more like Irene of 1999 track-wise. But it's not going to be a hurricane at landfall, most likely. Here's the latest of the "best" models (consensus models), removing those worthless BAMs and NAMs that tried to take it to the FL Panhandle. Notice that now that Fay has made the northerly turn, the BAM models are in line with consensus. Problem is, they aren't able to FORECAST those kind of turns. That's why they shouldn't be used in the subtropics.

[wxman57]

Fay's center shows up nicely on south FL radar now. Whether it's the MLC or not makes no difference, as that's where the significant weather is. Should be easier to calculate a heading today:

[KWT]

Yeah it does seem to be looking more like Irene now which is very interesting, I'm really starting to think the models may be under-estimating the NNE motion somewhat, esp given these systems tend to jog a little east of the forecasted landfall spot.

By the way thats actually not a bad radar presentation IMO for a sheared system!

[Evil Jeremy]

Thats alot of rain that will be moving over Lake O. Southern Florida is going to get a rude awakening.