ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[physicx07]

Yes, hopefully the convection will keep generating. I think rainfall is Fay's most impressive feature.

All of us in South Florida will be very happy if Fay dumps 10" of rain into Lake O. Looks like a big rainmaker with some nice gusts...we'll see what happens when it gets into the straits.

J~

[KWT]

Yeah south Flordia is looking highly likely to get a lot of rain from Fay and I still wouldn't totally under estimate winds as recon is finding some flight level winds to possibly support 50kts now it seems and whilst its still being sheared if the shear does ease off then this could strengthen a little before it makes any landfall...doesn't seem like Cuba has caused Fay any problems, but the shear clearly has.

[Ed Mahmoud]

To my uncalibrated eyeball, center is reaching Northern Cuban coast now, due South of Marathon, basically, and heaviest storms are just East of the center.

EYW radar and satellite both seem to show this.

I don't have a great feel for the direction yet, seems NNW, but I could be wrong.

[KWT]

cycloneye, that convection is really racing away and getting displaced from the center, the little deep convection is very close to the center however near Cuba.

Yep Ed I also think the circulation is about to cross into the waters again, good job as that convection now is racing away at least over water it should produce convection again.

[tolakram]

Here's my updated tracking chart. Note that I extrapolated between the last 2 points that look to be correct and ignored the 2am position which seemed to be too far west.

This is unofficial and shouldn't be used for anything but eye candy.

[drudd1]

I don't live there. Can you describe channel 9's track MusicCityMan?

Channel 9 made their own track too.. Channel 2 still insists on NHC's..

Tom Terry gives it a track crossing over Marathon, and tracking up through the state, with the eye passing just west of Orlando. He also said that the NHC would be shifting their track a little to the east soon.

[ronjon]

Looks like the LLC is emerging off the north coast of Cuba now. Appears to be moving W-NW or NW. Should be pretty close to NHC track.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BYX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[NDG]

As the trough starts lifting later up later today, I expect the UL winds to start relaxing a bit and for Fay to start keeping some of the near its center.

I still see a NNW heading. No way that she is moving N or NNE, the ridge to her east is still holding, so she can not go east for at least 24 hrs.

[KWT]

Yeah that looks pretty good tolakram, extrap motion from that would suggest roughly NNW, though of course the issue is the system is progged to bend slowly more to the north and maybe even NNE.

Think the motion for now is still NNW however.

[xironman]

cycloneye, that convection is really racing away and getting displaced from the center, the little deep convection is very close to the center however near Cuba.

There is convection starting to pop now that the center is close to emerging.

[tolakram]

Sat with surface plots. Note north wind near the coast, that should be very near the center (I think).

[physicx07]

I think he is too far west.

I don't live there. Can you describe channel 9's track MusicCityMan?

Channel 9 made their own track too.. Channel 2 still insists on NHC's..

Tom Terry gives it a track crossing over Marathon, and tracking up through the state, with the eye passing just west of Orlando. He also said that the NHC would be shifting their track a little to the east soon.

[KWT]

Yep which should help sustain the center quite nicely xironman, probably why FL winds of 55-58kts are being recorded by recon.

NDG, yeah I agree with motion of NNW though after 24hrs there does look like a chance of a more NNE motion possibly occuring.

[tolakram]

and finally the key West radar loop. Fay looks confused. off to work I go, stay safe and dry everyone.

[CronkPSU]

fay actually looks better than she did 12 hours ago...of course she was a bloody mess back then whith the center still well east of the convection

[CronkPSU]

and finally the key West radar loop. Fay looks confused. off to work I go, stay safe and dry everyone.

is that the LLC just emerging off the CUban coast? if it is than it seems to be moving NW to me

[ftolmsteen]

Did the center reform to the west this morning as it emerged in the straits??? Looked like it on radar.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the circulation is emerging from the coast...BUT that would be a MLC not the LLC given the distance from the radar site, LLC may be a little to the SW of that based on what the NHC stated before.

Without having a good indication if anything is on the southern side over Cuba in terms of convections its hard to know exactly what the motion is, looks NNW to me though.

[MusicCityMan]

Channel 9's track for Fay had the storm coming on shore in extreme SW Fla, then coming up thru Okechobee, effecting directly Osceola and Brevard and exiting Brevard County maybe Volusia..

I believe thats about right..

[Toyota Thundra]

Did the center reform to the west this morning as it emerged in the straits??? Looked like it on radar.

It kinda looks like it, and she does look fair considering the shear and land involved last night.