ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[dizzyfish]

I had an email from the superintendent this morning. They will make the decision about schools in Hillsborough County (Tampa) later this afternoon.

Ya'll will be the second to know.

[Lowpressure]

That does appear to be the center just off the coast, and it does look like NW at least in those few frames. She is back over water now, let's watch her close. Cloud pattern looks ragged on IR, but radar looks pretty good for a storm coming off land.

[KWT]

Until we get a decent recon fix on the center I'm not going to put too much faith in what a very long distance radar image shows given its seeing the mid levels rather then low levels.

Still it probably doesn't matter as the LLC will probably try to tuck under the MLC convection anyway even if it is displaced any.

[NDG]

UL conditions should start improving as well as the UL trough starts lifting and Fay moves away from the ULL.

Gee, I am still so upset with Channel 6, I should record their forecast and then when all is set and done, mail it to them.

[CronkPSU]

UL conditions should start improving as well as the UL trough starts lifting and Fay moves away from the ULL.

Gee, I am still so upset with Channel 6, I should record their forecast and then when all is set and done, mail it to them.

better yet, if it doesn't verify, send it to their advertisers and talk about their carelessness

[Lowpressure]

Until we get a decent recon fix on the center I'm not going to put too much faith in what a very long distance radar image shows given its seeing the mid levels rather then low levels.

I do not have a ton of time to scan other threads, what time is recon due in the system?
This is now aprox 90 miles from Key West, not so long range, but definetely mid levels. Key West appears to be a much better radar too.

[xironman]

Actually it looks like it may start banding to the west on that radar

[NDG]

Until we get a decent recon fix on the center I'm not going to put too much faith in what a very long distance radar image shows given its seeing the mid levels rather then low levels.

Still it probably doesn't matter as the LLC will probably try to tuck under the MLC convection anyway even if it is displaced any.

The circulation that is within short range radar near 23.2N & 81.1W is only 100 miles away, so I am sure that it is the LLC, the MLC is further east from there.

[KWT]

Yep the key west is a good radar and your right 90 miles isn't that far away I suppose, would still be in the mid levels though I'd guess.

The only thing I'm wary about is sometimes convection that swings westward as shear reduce can give a strong illusion of it heading further west than a system is, I think thats what happening right now, shear may wel be just easing a little and convection is trying to swing onto the western side, whether it will do it to any great degree just yet who knows!

[gatorcane]

Wow, look at the deep convection heading for Southern FL this morning, some TS winds on that convection is likely. Remember what I kept saying yesterday, that the dirty side of the storm (E side) was the side to watch.....and my thinking of some eastward shifts of the track from last night and a more NNE movement across the peninsula seems like it may verify given the NHC 5AM discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think you can throw most of the Models out the door this morning. Heading NNW. Would put the center over extreme S.Fl. As for the Keys. Not much for them. All the convection N.E.. If the center keeps turning more North. Florida would be spared even the heavy rain.

[Lowpressure]

This really the first time she can breath since she was named. In regards to water and les land intervention. That water is hot and little land, even the southern tip of Florida has seen storms not lose strength as everglades are basically bath water. Interesting day ahead for sure. Be safe.

[storms in NC]

I come up with 23.2 N and 80.3. But I will wait till it is over the water good and I maybe able to see it better.

[gatorcane]

This really the first time she can breath since she was named. In regards to water and les land intervention. That water is hot and little land, even the southern tip of Florida has seen storms not lose strength as everglades are basically bath water. Interesting day ahead for sure. Be safe.

It's possible but I do see some SW shear still impacting Fay and farther to the north you can really see some stronger shear over Northern FL. That shear is from the trough digging down.....

[KWT]

If the shear eases off somewhat then I still think there is a shot at hurricane stregth given recon finding winds that would support somewhere between 45-50kts, just a matter of whether it does ease or not.

gatorcane, I bet the Bahamas are getting some good rain, probably most of Florida are going to get good rains and have a horrible day.

By the way the shear is from the ULL right next to it not the trough digging down...

[NDG]

I always said that this year reminds me somewhat to 2004, and I think is proving so, so unusual troughing last couple of months just like '04 and now it seems like that a pattern change will happen right on time for the peak of the season.
I am not saying it will be an identical event, but very similar, IMO.

[HURAKAN]

0.45 inches and a gust of 25 mph so far.

[gatorcane]

Here is the radar from NWS Miami showing the wall of rain getting ready to hit southern FL...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[wxman57]

I come up with 23.2 N and 80.3. But I will wait till it is over the water good and I maybe able to see it better.

I can see a rotation farther west which may be the surface circulation near 23.2N/81.2. It'll need to get a bit closer to Key West radar to have a better fix on where it may be center-wise.

[evenoelle]

Here is the radar from NWS Miami showing the wall of rain getting ready to hit southern FL...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

I just drove to work through that mess. It's bad.