ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al942008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808181207
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2008, DB, O, 2008081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942008
AL, 94, 2008081812, , BEST, 0, 127N, 344W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Thread at Talking Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102579&p=1777150#p1777150

[Canelaw99]

At least it'll be a while before it gets over this way, if at all....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Only 7 post for this in the other forum before it was upgraded to a invest. WOW.

This thing looks pretty good overall. In has model support, at least from the Gfs. We will see.

[KWT]

Very interesting little system, whilst I don't think conditions are hugely favorable its in an area which is quite favorable at this time of year.

Matt, not surprising with Fay really is it!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lets not even go here...LOL

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Development here looks to be a given...Here we go!!!

[KWT]

By the way where does the models that develop it track it, I'd imagine a track generally W/WNW.

[cycloneye]

In case members didnt see the 8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook making reference to this new system,here it is:

927
ABNT20 KNHC 181154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png



Quickscat shows a closed but elongated LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Low shear should provide surprises in store, very low givent its location and during its probable trip....

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1200 UTC 12.4N 34.6W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Nice rotation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a depression. You have convection trying to also form over it with good banding trying to get going. It should not be long before t numbers come out.

Almost looks better then fay. Hell if you trended places with Fay. I bet there would be little difference still in what is what.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  08/18/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60   
SHEAR (KTS)        9    10     9     3     3    14    17    15    16    13    15    11    12
SST (C)         28.2  28.1  28.0  27.9  27.8  27.3  26.8  26.9  27.2  27.3  27.9  28.4  28.5


[carolina_73]

Looks VERY GOOD!!! This one is quite a low tracker. It is still a long ways out ...but the setup looks as if this could be a serious player down the road.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site 12,7 N 34,4W 25 kts 1009 hpa
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
Healthy Invest 94L the next 12h should be pretty interressing given the current conditions ahead of this feature...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Weak SAL is doting the area only small pockets can be seen....

[HURAKAN]

Matt, I would wait at least 24 hrs before saying anything like that. We have seen this year a few systems looking this good that have dissipated. This is likely a developing system, but not a tropical storm or Fay-equivalent.