ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

Our local VIPIR in West Palm...Lots of red coming our way for the rest of the day...

http://www.wptv.com/weather/default.aspx

There should be some kind of warring for the East coast of Fla cause it will get most of the heavy rains and tornado's. Just my thoughts only

[Ed Mahmoud]

South Florida tornado watch possible soon per SPC...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181214Z - 181315Z

A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF SRN FL
INCLUDING THE KEYS. IF MORE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE ROTATION COUPLETS
DEVELOP...THEN A WW WOULD BECOME WARRANTED.

AT 12Z...REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MORE
PERSISTENT NW-SE ORIENTED RAIN BAND ALONG THE NERN THROUGH ERN
PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM FAY...WITH THIS BAND EXTENDING FROM 70
SE MIA TO ABOUT 155 ESE MTH. VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING
WERE OBSERVED ALONG THIS BAND WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION OF STORM
ROTATION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH A FEW OF THE EMBEDDED STRONGER
CELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RECENT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES /15-20 KT/ IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAND. NORTHERN MOST CELL
THAT SHOWED WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS LOCATED 70 SE MIA...WITH A
NWWD MOVEMENT OF 35 KT RESULTING IN THIS CELL REACHING THE SERN FL
COAST /VICINITY MIA/ BETWEEN 1330-14Z.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AS T.S. FAY APPROACHES THE FL
KEYS RESULTING IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ATTENDANT TO THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2008


ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

25908178 26298098 26287995 25348013 24718063 24468175
24698163 25068120 25448135

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the center looks pretty well established now on radar, so I doubt we will see it reform to the north and east. Instead, I think we will see new development take place right over top the current center as we head throughout the day.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

Oy...good morning again everyone

Looks like she's getting her act together again perhaps?

[BigA]

I think the center looks pretty well established now on radar, so I doubt we will see it reform to the north and east. Instead, I think we will see new development take place right over top the current center as we head throughout the day.

My thoroughly unprofessional opinion is thar Fay may start cranking late this afternoon; it usually takes these storms that go over land some hours to recover/ "come to their senses."

[shaggy]

I think the center looks pretty well established now on radar, so I doubt we will see it reform to the north and east. Instead, I think we will see new development take place right over top the current center as we head throughout the day.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah I don't see a reformation happening now with the center so much better defined. I would think it could be possible for the center to be "pulled" a little to the east by the blowup but i'm not sure about that either.

[johngaltfla]

Ferro still thinks the RECON planes is investigating Fay and the plane left like an hour ago.

My barometer says "rising rapidly."

You're joking, right? He didn't really say that? Our pro mets at least were conservative saying they will be a bit more definitive with the 1100 and 1700 updates. And of course "watch the cone."

Which reminds me, I think I'll go out for some ice cream later on today......

[AdamFirst]

At this current heading, how much time will she have over water?

This is potentially including the Everglades...the river of grass...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ferro still thinks the RECON planes is investigating Fay and the plane left like an hour ago.

My barometer says "rising rapidly."

According to my google earth recon data mission 15 is still in Fay as well as mission 17 is on its way to Fay. They are now doing fixes every 3 hours so you will have 2 or 3 recon planes in there at one time

[Steve]

>>I'm watching the vortex LLC? which moved N then NW and is now moving Wnw due south of KW along the Cuban northern coast

Huh? That looks like a hooked opening in the rain-shield. The spin appears even farther east than the track - though we're dealing with radar and probably either a MLC or multiple vortices.
---------------------------------
Not related to the above.

Fay may well be the worst tracked storm in the history of SR.com. From the arrogance of pro-mets in the early invest days to posters so determined to area and state cast that they attacked other people because they didn't agree one way or the other. This guy /right here/ always liked a SE FL/Bahamas solution but when it didn't pan out, I didn't get snippy or pretended that only I knew what I was talking about. It's like this - we're up to the F storm. We might hit the P(+/-) before the season is up. Posters - pro and amateur alike - need to step up their game. JMO

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Ferro still thinks the RECON planes is investigating Fay and the plane left like an hour ago.

My barometer says "rising rapidly."

According to my google earth recon data mission 15 is still in Fay as well as mission 17 is on its way to Fay. They are now doing fixes every 3 hours so you will have 2 or 3 recon planes in there at one time

Mission 15, AF 300:
RMK AF300 1506A FAY OB 29
LAST REPORT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would bet that if this was near where 94L is currently at, that this would be no more then a 35 knot tropical storm right now. I would bet a bridge in new york on that.

[cpdaman]

ull appears to be more stationary or retrograding ............uncertainty levels/forecast looks high regarding anything .......i agree with the poster saying re-location looks unlikely.....however conditions over the LLC could become less sheared and potentially more favorable.......also this currently looks like it is a "gift" to give it 65 mph winds.

[StJoe]

Yehh...so I'm thinking tornado warnigs will be issued very, very soon...


http://www.wptv.com/weather/default.aspx

Lots of nasty stuff heading our way...Looks like a wonderful day in sunny south florida

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

From this loop it looks like the troff has picked up some of Fay. We will see I guess

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ferro still thinks the RECON planes is investigating Fay and the plane left like an hour ago.

My barometer says "rising rapidly."

According to my google earth recon data mission 15 is still in Fay as well as mission 17 is on its way to Fay. They are now doing fixes every 3 hours so you will have 2 or 3 recon planes in there at one time

Mission 15, AF 300:
RMK AF300 1506A FAY OB 29
LAST REPORT

yeah I just clicked on the last hdob observation point and it was from 11:55Z. I refreshed it before I posted to make sure it was updated but I guess for some reason it stopped reporting at that time. However there are now 2 new recon missions on their way to check out Fay both AirForce flights.

[MusicCityMan]

My untrained eye says she may be developing a lil better this morning.. I could be wrong. It'll be interesting to see when she reaches Cat 1 status

[JPmia]

Interesting turn of events this morning. Keep throwing those models out folks! LOL, but seriously, looks like an Irene '99 situation to me.

[tolakram]

Interesting turn of events this morning. Keep throwing those models out folks! LOL, but seriously, looks like an Irene '99 situation to me.

Why? Fay is pretty much right on track.