ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like she is developing a loose eye. There is no question it is the best it has ever been right now. It has a innercore right now when it never before had a organized one. I expect that the convection to the east will die later today, and at that time convection will finally develop over the center. In which when it does that it will tighten up.

[Steve]

>>For those of you insisting that the models were off or the NHC was wrong please ride the snake

LMAO. However, since that track updates constantly from a new point each time, it's not like you can use that to say they were on track since they upgraded. Still a funny command for our fellow posters.

Steve

[Jevo]

This is a live streaming cam in Key West with sound

Enjoy

http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

[Air Force Met]

Has anyone let the NHC know that Fay is in bad shape and prob won't become a 'cane?

As of 8am they sang a different tune..


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

You really need to learn a little more about the politics of tropical forecasting.

[cpdaman]

wow great shots guys, also recon is about 20 min away from giving us a confired LLC so , lets us see

also sanibel what is your appox latitude and longitude of your resisdence , if you don't mind


as far as fay looking good, well perhaps if her center is more toward the eastern side of that larger spinning vortex that is visible on radar as of late, but i will wait for recon to see .

also steve i thought the same thing

[tolakram]

Could it also be said, based on visible, that the MLC seems to be stacked on top of the LLC? I see spin on the cloud tops above or near the LLC which is hidden below these clouds.

[mattpetre]

If we are lucky, maye 2008 will be a year of many storms but not many that do catastrophic damage. I'm really happy to see that I was wrong thinking the trough in the SE wouldn't pick this up in time. Yea! to being wrong. I am not discounting impact to S. FL, but this could have been much worse if it had time to traverse the entire GOM.

[capepoint]

hurrikan, does it look to you like some of that NE stuff MIGHT break away? I think thats what I'm seeing but not sure. Compare it's movement with that of circ center area. Not enough coffee yet this morning.......

[WhirlWind]

Sanibel - We also noticed the moon last evening, and the air condition was weird to say the least. It was so still and quite. This morning, not to much has changed and my dog is acting weird as all get out, not to many birds are out and about here either. Not that I am sure all that means much. Guess it is a wait and see situation for now.
Stay Safe All
WhirlWind

[Vortex]

6Z UKMET moves Fay north while strengthening with landfall across the middle keys and south FL. Then rides the east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Category 5]

If we are lucky, maye 2008 will be a year of many storms but not many that do catastrophic damage. I'm really happy to see that I was wrong thinking the trough in the SE wouldn't pick this up in time. Yea! to being wrong. I am not discounting impact to S. FL, but this could have been much worse if it had time to traverse the entire GOM.

Lets not count our chickens before they hatch, this still has some time.

[artist]

well this does appear to be panning out as a Southern FL event has I suspected from 5 days ago when we first started tracking Fay when she was 92L...lots of heavy squall are coming ashore SE FL this morning....and the winds are increasing within the heavier squalls.

as tracks shift East Fay is getting closer to what CLIMO suggested all along when Fay was in her seminal stages over the big island of Hispaniola --- and CLIMO may win out yet again.

Latest image:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

Where are you in Wellington GatorCane? I know I've asked you before, but you don't reply?

hey STJoe I know you didn't ask me bu t the Acreage here. How prepared are you getting? Shutters ? Did you see our warning states if it goes east of the lake?

[Sanibel]

LMAO. However, since that track updates constantly from a new point each time, it's not like you can use that to say they were on track since they upgraded. Still a funny command for our fellow posters.

Ah, Steve. That track is unusually consistent compared to other NHC tracks. Though I suspect we'll see it go more east again.

[PurdueWx80]

i'm not so sure that fay is in such bad shape this morning. early visible shots show a clear expansion of outflow in the western portion of the storm, and convection seems to be rapidly expanding into the NW quad now.

vis loop
key west loop

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I might see more than one area of rotation in the radar imagery.

[HURAKAN]

RECON getting closer to the center.

[NDG]

6Z UKMET moves Fay north while strengthening with landfall across the middle keys and south FL. Then rides the east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Bad run, UKMET has her moving straight north after moving into Cuba and after exiting Cuba, when we know that Fay continues on a NNW heading ever since it made landfall in Cuba

[tolakram]

LMAO. However, since that track updates constantly from a new point each time, it's not like you can use that to say they were on track since they upgraded. Still a funny command for our fellow posters.

Ah, Steve. That track is unusually consistent compared to other NHC tracks. Though I suspect we'll see it go more east again.

I think you miss my point. Here is a single image of the track created once recon got a solid fix over the ocean. Intensity was wrong, it almost always is, but pretty darn good forecast track.

[Sanibel]

sanibel what is your appox latitude and longitude of your resisdence , if you don't mind

26.4N-82.1W

[cpdaman]

i'm not so sure that fay is in such bad shape this morning. early visible shots show a clear expansion of outflow in the western portion of the storm, and convection seems to be rapidly expanding into the NW quad now.

vis loop
key west loop

well we know that should the center get a lil bit further away from the ull ,(wether it is ull retrograding or LLC getting pulled under deeper convection eastward) that all of a sudden conditions could become favorable..........like they seem to get right before southern coastal cuban landfall lastnite...........