ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Yeah, that muscular core band is shouting hurricane. All a matter of track now.

Um, it's a couple of rain showers spinning around a weak LLC? Did I miss something?

[cpdaman]

Yeah, that muscular core band is shouting hurricane. All a matter of track now.

nothing is shouting hurricane right now, except a few posters

pressures are still fairly high so i would watch for feeder bands to start consolidating around a center (likely the one that NDG) mentioned

[NDG]

Is that a eye I see?

Look SSE of Key West, that's where the center is, that round precip free area SE of Key West is not the LLC

[gatorcane]

The shear is starting to abate I notice....strengthening is likely if this trend continues.

[GreenSky]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

Katrina weakened over the Everglades.

No, she actually strengthened 5 or 10 mph to a decent 85mph category 1 hurricane while over southwestern Miami-Dade County (aka everglades)

[HURAKAN]

By the way, I already exausted the amount of storage I could use in a month in my Photobucket account. I had to create a sub-album to continue storing the images from Google RECON and from the storm itself.

[artist]

it's pouring cats and dogs in SE palm beach county, and certainly not too windy now.

watching to see if the rainbands can consolidate and get closer to the recon fixed center.

same in n PBC

[PurdueWx80]

i think the longer-duration loops from college of dupage will help you guys see the several circulation centers better. the old low-level center has been nearly stationary for the last couple of hours, and it seems that the quickly-organizing low- to mid-level center is moving northwest and pulling in the old circulation. there's a lot going on in that loop, as you can see returns going every which way near the center. once these all stack over the next several hours, it looks like there could be some pretty quick organization/intensification.

loop it

[HURAKAN]

No, she actually strengthened 5 or 10 mph to a decent 85mph category 1 hurricane while over southwestern Miami-Dade County (aka everglades)

This is off-topic and Katrina weakened from 70 knots to 60 knots crossing Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. Check the NHC Archives.

[Trader Ron]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

Katrina weakened over the Everglades.

Katrina did not weaken over the Everglades.

[cpdaman]

i think the longer-duration loops from college of dupage will help you guys see the several circulation centers better. the old low-level center has been nearly stationary for the last couple of hours, and it seems that the quickly-organizing low- to mid-level center is moving northwest and pulling in the old circulation. there's a lot going on in that loop, as you can see returns going every which way near the center. once these all stack over the next several hours, it looks like there could be some pretty quick organization/intensification.

loop it

looks like they are in the process of converging , interesting but not much time unless she slows

[xironman]

An SFMR of 57 kts, probably junk but still interesting to see.

[HURAKAN]

9 26.10 -79.90 08/25/21Z 65 985 HURRICANE-1
9A 25.90 -80.10 08/25/23Z 70 985 HURRICANE-1
9B 25.80 -80.40 08/26/01Z 70 985 HURRICANE-1
10 25.50 -80.70 08/26/03Z 65 984 HURRICANE-1
10A 25.40 -81.10 08/26/05Z 60 990 TROPICAL STORM
10B 25.30 -81.30 08/26/07Z 60 990 TROPICAL STORM
11 25.30 -81.50 08/26/09Z 65 987 HURRICANE-1

Katrina weakened and LETS GET BACK TO FAY.

[jasons2k]

She is getting it together and has the chance to intensify quickly I think, but the problem is that Fay is moving at a good clip and will run out of room to develop too much. Other than land interaction, all the parameters are there.

[Thunder44]

i think the longer-duration loops from college of dupage will help you guys see the several circulation centers better. the old low-level center has been nearly stationary for the last couple of hours, and it seems that the quickly-organizing low- to mid-level center is moving northwest and pulling in the old circulation. there's a lot going on in that loop, as you can see returns going every which way near the center. once these all stack over the next several hours, it looks like there could be some pretty quick organization/intensification.

loop it

This is basically what I'm seeing now too.

[HURAKAN]

473
URNT12 KNHC 181431 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/13:57:00Z
B. 23 deg 28 min N
081 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1446 m
D. 30 kt
E. 302 deg 043 nm
F. 035 deg 034 kt
G. 297 deg 032 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1520 m
J. 17 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1706A FAY1 OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:47:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WND 58KT NE QUAD 14:24:50Z

[jasons2k]

For my 5000th post - this is not offical, just my opinion, but:

I'm about to call my Dad in Big Pine and tell him he'll probably take the worst part of the track with Fay.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Latest VDM Decoded:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 14:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Fay1
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 13:57:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°28'N 81°22'W (23.47N 81.37W)
B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (111 km) to the ENE (69°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,446m (4,744ft) at an unspecified standard level
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35° at 34kts (From the NE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Was not in vortex message
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:24:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:13:20Z

[ExBailbonds]

you cant compare this to katrina. katrina crossed south Florida east to west. This one could cross the everglades from the south to the north big diffrence.

[Iune]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181438
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...CENTER OF FAY NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN