ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whew!! Good news if the center land falls SOUTH of Tampa Bay,
that means no storm surge flooding my house!

What kind of wind should I expect when Fay passes
east of Tampa, heavy stuff is east of the
center, so on the western side (Tampa Bay will be west of the
center) should the winds be weaker? It appears the heavier
winds will be on the east side.

An observation this morning I see is that the squalls and winds
being east of the center should bring widespread tropical storm
force gusts to pretty much all of South Florida. That's where the
worst conditions from Tropical Storm Fay appear to be this morning.

[fci]

one thing I'd like to point out. This rain is EXCELLENT news for Lake Okeechobie. I think we may be above normal after Fay passes.....

As long as the winds stay down and there are no tornados; Fay is a blessing for our drought.
Mother Nature's way of evening things up.

Maybe she can get Lake O up to where it is supposed to be and the Water Management District won't lower it too much like last time so we can water and see lakes where they belong!

[Evil Jeremy]

Interesting parts of the Disco:

Fay has been moving in fits and starts for the past couple of
days...with the center moving faster toward the north-northwest
during the past 6 hr. The initial motion is 335/11.

Most of the track guidance
responds to this evolution by forecasting Fay to move generally
northward near or over the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern
United States. However...the GFS and ECMWF both forecast Fay to
turn northeastward into the Atlantic and stall by 120 hr...while
the NOGAPS continues to call for a more westerly motion toward the
Florida Panhandle. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center noted
that the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are not in good agreement with the
operational runs...so these outliers are ignored for the moment.

the guidance shows gradual strengthening...with the GFDL and HWRF
models making Fay a hurricane before landfall. Thus...the
intensity forecast will follow suit. After landfall...Fay should
slowly weaken and become a remnant low by 120 hr. This intensity
forecast is low confidence...and there is a distinct chance Fay
might not reach hurricane strength before landfall...especially if
it moves to the right of the forecast track.

It should be noted that...similar to Charley in 2004...small
deviations from the forecast track could make large differences in
when and where the center of Fay makes landfall.

[Bgator]

Can someone explain to me how to see if the winds are close to making it down to the center? There is near no wind in Miami right now.

The winds come with the rain bands. If you are not experiencing any or light rain right now, there is no wind.[/quote
I am def. experiencing rain, im in southern dade, and it has been POURING, no wind. lol

[Scorpion]

Looks like it might be getting an inner core together.

[NEXRAD]

There's new, deepening, convection just north of Fay's LLC and some additional activity strengthening just to the west of the LLC. Upper level divergence has really improved as well, so we should see Fay organize over the next few hours.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

Can someone please tell me where I can find the same loops that I would find on the NHC Satellite page please?

[Noles2006]

There's new, deepening, convection just north of Fay's LLC and some additional activity strengthening just to the west of the LLC. Upper level divergence has really improved as well, so we should see Fay organize over the next few hours.

- Jay

Yes, there is... I finally agree that it appears primed for some intensification...

[Clipper96]

These visibles still work - http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[NEXRAD]

Can someone explain to me how to see if the winds are close to making it down to the center? There is near no wind in Miami right now.

The winds come with the rain bands. If you are not experiencing any or light rain right now, there is no wind.[/quote
I am def. experiencing rain, im in southern dade, and it has been POURING, no wind. lol

The outermost rain squalls with tropical cyclones usually don't contain wide-spread strong sustained winds. From radar imagery and surface obs, the leading edge of Fay's wind fields are approaching Flamingo and Islamorada right now.

- Jay

[Chacor]

Can someone please tell me where I can find the same loops that I would find on the NHC Satellite page please?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float1.html

[tolakram]

[Weatherboy1]

some colder cloud tops showing up in the past few satellite frames (when I can load them -- NHC, as others have noted, is clearly overloaded ... so is the backup site I use). This could be a sign that we're going to see some more intensification

[gatorcane]

intense squal getting ready to move onshore the middle FL Keys:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[tolakram]

Looks to be organizing, I don't like the look of the clouds building around the center (I dare not call it LLC).

[NDG]

In case anybody is wondering where the center is on vis sat

[tolakram]

Still looks messy on radar.

[gatorcane]

SSTs in the mid 80s in the FL straits...intensification is bound to happen even with some moderate shear.

[CrazyC83]

Those up the coast shouldn't let their guard down either - an early landfall for Fay would likely send it back over open waters...this kinda reminds me of Irene in 1999...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks to be organizing, I don't like the look of the clouds building around the center (I dare not call it LLC).

The center is south west from that newest convection thats developing.