ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

guys I'm afraid to say this, but I agree with members who think its starting to wrap up as of the past hour or so. I see it really getting going now...I'm afraid...and it appears to be slowing down a bit more.

Check out this loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[txwatcher91]

THe local Mets keep saying an East shift to the track seems likely, is it more likely Fay will track a little more N-NE or N-NW with this slowdown?

NHC said it will turn north today or tonight.

Looks like NNE currently.

[oyster_reef]

well folks I have been suggesting a more east shift for several days even bringing CLIMO into the discussion and it does appear it is coming to fruition.

SE Florida may just feel the brunt of this system if trends continue (SE FL is on the dirty side)

well done gatorcane! You are the man! Brilliant!

[JonathanBelles]

ABC's TITAN model brings landfall into Punta Gorda, BUT it then takes it to the NW up the West coast and out to the GOM near Clearwater.

[tolakram]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

[NEXRAD]

From the 1200PM surface observations and radar imagery, Fay's outermost more noticeable winds (as opposed to the relatively benign conditions currently across South Florida) begin just south of Homestead. Through 2:00 PM... rain and wind will increase across the Florida Keys, southeast Mainland Monroe County, and across the southern half of Miami-Dade County. Expect moderate rain to become common with rates between 1/4 and 1/2 inch per hour. Winds for areas south of US 41, Tamiami Trail, will become generally east at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-mph. Across the Keys, east winds will become sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45, especially near heavier showers. Occasional wind gusts around 55-mph will be possible across the Keys in the heaviest squalls.

- Jay

[StJoe]

guys I'm afraid to say this, but I agree with members who think its starting to wrap up as of the past hour or so. I see it really getting going now...I'm afraid...and it appears to be slowing down a bit more.

Check out this loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

You are totally on the money Gator...She's really starting to amp up now. If she slows down to , say 9mph, we are gonna get a strong TS and maybe even a strong Cat 1. Banding is coming together nice and tight. Outflow is looking good.

J~

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Check out the models thread. theres talk there that atleast one of the models shows Fay exiting the East coast of Florida into the Atlantic restrengthens, loops around for yet another landfall along the Eastern Coast of Florida and may then exit into the northern GoM.

[txwatcher91]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Radar, and it is not NE I said NNE or slightly west of that.

[cpdaman]

i am stupified with the LLC now, waiting on recon or a promets analysis

[StJoe]

Tornado watches coming across the boob tube.

[johngaltfla]

ABC's TITAN model brings landfall into Punta Gorda, BUT it then takes it to the NW up the West coast and out to the GOM near Clearwater.

Channel 7's VORTEX which is similar to TITAN showed it as a coastal hugger. Let us hope they are wrong but as the data pours in, who knows, they might be right again. I wish that Channel 8 would get their VIPIR update on....

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170215.GIF

Close up visible. Boy that's a confusing image. I can see through the clouds in the last pic, but I wouldn't call that an eye because the LLC is south / southwest of that location.

[tolakram]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Radar, and it is not NE I said NNE or slightly west of that.

Why are you trusting radar when better data is available? At this distance you are seeing the mid level circulation anyway.

[gatorcane]

I think a see NNW motion still but slightly slower than a couple of hours ago.

[Sanibel]

Could be slowdown which would mostly likely precede track change.


Give it a few hours over those SST's. Trust me the center will show up.

[johngaltfla]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Radar, and it is not NE I said NNE or slightly west of that.

According to the last two fixes, it is still on about a 335 course. Using short term radar loops to determine course is not going to get you the accuracy needed now.

[tgenius]

Isn't there an expected turn straight north? Is it at all possible that turn north is happening a little earlier?

[Iune]

Fay from Wunderground image from NASA!

[txwatcher91]

Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion. Did I miss something?

For those of you looking for floater pics

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Radar, and it is not NE I said NNE or slightly west of that.

Why are you trusting radar when better data is available? At this distance you are seeing the mid level circulation anyway.

Because it is slowing down and the visible shows clouds moving N and NNE ahead of the storm which points to its likely future movement, and radar is only about 50 miles away, so it is seeing some of the LLC. The turn N or NNE is beginning IMO, I got the turn right last night also.