ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:09 AM EDT on August 18, 2008
Elsewhere in the tropics
The UKMET model is suggesting development of a tropical wave currently located off the coast of Africa, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This system (94L) is expected to track west-northwest and be near the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots over this disturbance, and some slow development is likely over the next two days.

[KWT]

Very interesting looking system now, there is obvious rotation and I don't see no exit route for 94L to get northwards for a while yet. got a feeling this is going to be our next major player.

[cycloneye]

The Latest:

[KWT]

There is a lot of stable air further north but for now it looks decent enough, rotation is pretty obvious there cycloneye, willing to bet this our next system after Fay,.

Also steering currents once again suggests a threat to the Caribbeaan and probably east coast as well...more likely to be an east coast system IF it develops in the main Atlantic rather than further west like Fay.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sweet!! something else to track...I'm Fayed Out! Looks like we have a new player coming up!!

[ConvergenceZone]

floater added at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

labeled as invest 10

Thanks for the Floater link Derek...

[KWT]

Yep I think there is a very good chance this is our next player, early days but right now I suspect this will be a hurricane at some point in its life...

[ConvergenceZone]

Very interesting looking system now, there is obvious rotation and I don't see no exit route for 94L to get northwards for a while yet. got a feeling this is going to be our next major player.

I know it's early, but upon looking at the graphs and charts for the upcoming week, I don't see this storm going fishin.... of course anything can happen..

[KWT]

Yep I agree CZ the high is pretty strong, probably the storngest its been all summer across the middle part of the basin, suggests a W/WNW track till at least 70W IMO.

[Gustywind]

based on that floater visible... it almost looks stationary.

try this one you will that there's action on this new invest 94L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
Looks suspicious for the next 24H /36H rotation seems visible ( shoud it continues too)...

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I've got to admit that looks like a tropical depression already!

[ConvergenceZone]

I've got to admit that looks like a tropical depression already!

I agree KWT, at least based on the satellite presentation. Of course FAY is keeping the attention to this one at a minimum, otherwise this thread would be pretty busy.....Once Fay makes landfall, this thread will be a hoppin...

[KWT]

I think CZ once this gets further across and stays below 20N attention will rise for this as well...

At the very least we've got a strong MLC with 94L if not more...

[RL3AO]

It looks different than those other waves that poofed. I can't point to what it is, but it looks different.

[cheezyWXguy]

I've got to admit that looks like a tropical depression already!

It really does look like it...a very strong mid level circulation. However, I dont see anything at the surface yet. Deep convection appears to making its way toward the circulation from the east and west and will likely become the basis for deep convection formation. I still expect a llc to develop within the next 36 to 48 hours

[93superstorm]

A very healthy looking wave with very good rotation

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks different than those other waves that poofed. I can't point to what it is, but it looks different.

The difference is that this has a true mlc, while the others just had curvature. I expect development from this one.

[KWT]

Yeah its clearly got a closed MLC, even a still image shows this has got obvious rotation to it with the way the convection is wrapped. may have to wait till it works its way down to the surface but this looks interesting right now.

[Brent]

This looks like a big storm in the future to me.