ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[drudd1]

Awesome job fact789

[cpdaman]

KWT center is still at 81.5 west what was it earlier

[gatorcane]

well looks like NWS Miami uped the wind forecast for metro areas of SE FL...that is enough to create some power outages and headaches:

NWS snippet for Palm Beach County (East):
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6&map.y=59

Tuesday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86. South wind 29 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[artist]

Jay, we are 30 miles to the east of the lake O. Do you think we will see anything more than ts winds here? Thanks![/quote]

This is a tricky question to answer. Based on all of the information I have thus far, I'd count on expecting conditions similar to what 1999's Hurricane Irene brought.

- Jay[/quote]

thanks Jay, I figured it might be, but, now what did Irene bring? We weren't here for her.

[Meso]

I guess as far as pressure is concerened, it all depends on the surrounding pressure and the gradient (990mb storm surrounded by pressures of 1020mb, would essentially be the same as a 1000mb storm if it were surrounded by pressures of 1030mb I'd assume.. I may be wrong [Though unlikely the case here]) I suppose that could be the reason why winds are strongest on the north eastern quadrant in the Atlantic? Due to the positioning of the ridge generally? I may and am very likely completely off with this though

[KWT]

cpdaman, the LLC seems to be fairly elongated SW-NE based on that recon, lowest pressure between 81.5/20.9N up through to 81.2/21.1N. May be a hint that the LLC is trying to locate itself towards the center, I remember it had a similar profile yesterday for a time.

[Scorpion]

Irene was pretty here.. lots of flooding and power outages.

[cpdaman]

cpdaman, the LLC seems to be fairly elongated SW-NE based on that recon, lowest pressure between 81.5/20.9N up through to 81.2/21.1N.

? what is the real latitude, never mind i got it yup it's elongated still to that sW corner , wonder if it is about to suck that sw corner about 20 miles NNE. or if that makes any sense lol

[Sanibel]

Systems with a hazy upper usually intensify. This one has a hazy upper.

[KWT]

Not sure what the exact latitude or longitude is, I think a vortex ob would give the best idea to be honest, best wait till then I reckon.

Sanibel, I've got a feeling this undergoing slow but steady strengthening right now, if it stacks up totally then may strength faster.

[Sanibel]

Just like yesterday below Cuba, prime SST's will slowly trump shear. Not to mention Fay will do another d-max tonight just as it is manifesting the SST's into strength. Watch what it looks like tonight.

[NEXRAD]

This is a tricky question to answer. Based on all of the information I have thus far, I'd count on expecting conditions similar to what 1999's Hurricane Irene brought.

- Jay

thanks Jay, I figured it might be, but, now what did Irene bring? We weren't here for her.[/quote]

For Palm Beach and Martin Counties, Irene generally brought peak sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph with gusts generally up to 60 - 65-mph. I suspect Fay's impacts may last a little longer than Irene's did too, which would heighten the potential impact from these winds. Overall, the expected impacts for an area seeing these strong tropical storm conditions would be scattered small to medium branches downed, shallow-rooted trees uprooted in places with greater wind exposure, damage to some fences, awnings, and possibly car-ports, and scattered power outages.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

looks like it is slowing some as of late...would everybody agree?

[hial2]

Irene was pretty here.. lots of flooding and power outages.

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder..

[Pearl River]

Key West:

METAR text: KEYW 181734Z AUTO 03031G36KT 2SM RA BR FEW004 OVC010 25/24 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/1723 LTG DSNT E P0049
Conditions at: KEYW (KEY WEST, FL, US) observed 1734 UTC 18 August 2008
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.67 inches Hg (1004.8 mb)
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
gusting to 41 MPH (36 knots; 18.7 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 400 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: RA BR (rain, mist)

[melhow]

Pinellas County Schools closed Tuesday

http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=7225947&version=14&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like it is slowing some as of late...would everybody agree?

No. Still looks to be moving a normal rate of speed NNW...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Key West and points just east are getting ready to go through the worst this storm has to offer.

[JonathanBelles]

Awesome job fact789

Thanks...Im trying to keep it up to date with stuff from at least 43 EOC's and their NWS's. Everyones help is very much appreciated.

[NEXRAD]

Some dry air is filtering into Fay's southwest quadrant, inhibiting the convective development there. The newest deep convection (presently over and near the Lower Keys) may be able to wrap southward over the next few hours as Fay continues to pull away from the upper low. Outflow north and east of the center, however, is looking better.

- Jay

[Blown Away]

If Fay is now moving N, she will landfall between Marco Island and Everglades City if there is no W component. Is that correct?