ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[westmoon]

Seems it goes down before every update the last few days

[gatorcane]

Some dry air is filtering into Fay's southwest quadrant, inhibiting the convective development there. The newest deep convection (presently over and near the Lower Keys) may be able to wrap southward over the next few hours as Fay continues to pull away from the upper low. Outflow north and east of the center, however, is looking better.

- Jay

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Yeah I agree with that and think the chances are increasing of Fay becoming at least a CAT 1 before landfall in extreme SW FL or Southern FL

[NEXRAD]

Sombrero Key is experiencing 54-mph wind gusts as of the last report with rapidly falling pressures. Note that this buoy's anemometer is at a non-standard 48-m height. Sombrero Key is about 45 to 55 miles north of Fay's center at present.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

The ULL is really mugging the upper. But expect that to smooth out more as the SST's power Fay up.

[gatorcane]

the true power of the SSTs of the FL straits to intensify systems is amazing

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

KEY WEST

Wind: 31 mph / 50 km/h / 13.9 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s
Pressure: 29.66 in / 1004 hPa (Falling)

[gatorcane]

Sombrero Key is experiencing 54-mph wind gusts as of the last report with rapidly falling pressures. Note that this buoy's anemometer is at a non-standard 48-m height. Sombrero Key is about 45 to 55 miles north of Fay's center at present.

- Jay

When can SE FL metro areas experience noticeably stronger winds? I think there are many that think this will be mostly a rain event for Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade due to the calm winds at the moment but I noticed the NWS keeps bumping up the wind speed forecasts...now with 55-60mph gusts for these regions, especially the western areas.

[KWT]

Yeah the actual structure of Fay is slowly but surely improving IMO, most of the deep convection seems to be closer to the center than it was this morning and more on the northern side than eastern, just need to watch in cas eit does try to wrap.

Also indeed mid level dry air from Cuba maybe inhibiting the inflow somewhat on the southern side, that issue is slowly going to reduce as it heads northwards.

Also I still think 50-50 odds are best for whether this beocmes a hurricane, seems like its slowly getting stronger however.

[artist]

This is a tricky question to answer. Based on all of the information I have thus far, I'd count on expecting conditions similar to what 1999's Hurricane Irene brought.

- Jay

thanks Jay, I figured it might be, but, now what did Irene bring? We weren't here for her.

For Palm Beach and Martin Counties, Irene generally brought peak sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph with gusts generally up to 60 - 65-mph. I suspect Fay's impacts may last a little longer than Irene's did too, which would heighten the potential impact from these winds. Overall, the expected impacts for an area seeing these strong tropical storm conditions would be scattered small to medium branches downed, shallow-rooted trees uprooted in places with greater wind exposure, damage to some fences, awnings, and possibly car-ports, and scattered power outages.

- Jay[/quote]
thanks again. We just experienced our first power outage (about a minute) and there are no winds to speak of. Hope its not a precursor of things to come. Those winds I can live with after going through Frances and Jeanne.

Guess I better bring in my orchids though.
Hurakan - that Irene and Fay image is incredible.

[HURAKAN]

389
URNT12 KNHC 181629 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/17:33:00Z
B. 23 deg 54 min N
081 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1446 m
D. 51 kt
E. 303 deg 71 nm
F. 028 deg 036 kt
G. 294 deg 036 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 16 C/ 1525 m
J. 17 C/ 1526 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1706A FAY1 OB 13 CCB
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 16:33:00 Z

[KWT]

Key west will probably be gusting to tropical storm force winds at least for quite a while now and conditions are going to be much worse close to the center.

Hurakan, interesting comprasion to make, these two are very similar in many ways though at this stage Irene looked better then Fay does.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Didn't they find a 1000mb pressure? Why does the VDM say 1002mb?

[Evil Jeremy]

2 PM advisory is being delayed. Should be out by now. Perhaps they are waiting for more info from Recon?

[tolakram]

[ALhurricane]

Didn't they find a 1000mb pressure? Why does the VDM say 1002mb?

The 1000mb pressure was extrapolated by the NOAA plane flying at a much higher altitude, therefore it is prone to more errors than the Air Force plane that is flying lower.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting 1400 advisory; Still holding NNW at 14 mph w/1002 mb. They are calling for a northern motion on Tuesday and intensification to a hurricane. The 1700 advisory and disco plus the 00Z model runs should provide some answers...

[storms in NC]

gatorcane Have you thought it may not hit Fla at all? It could happen. NOT saying it will be it could. I am think now they will move it even more east. With it slowing up will give her time to get her self together and streighten to at less a cat 1 maybe a 2. Just some things running in my head.

Some one said that they couldn't turn that fast. Yes she can. I have seen it done. I think it was dennis. Came right up to Wilm and Then he turned to the rightand out then looped back and gave us rain then floyd.

From what I see she is moving NNE at times I know wobbles.

[Air Force Met]

Didn't they find a 1000mb pressure? Why does the VDM say 1002mb?

Because it was an extrap from 10K feet. If you watched the run...it jumped 2 mb in a matter of a few miles...up and down and up and down.

That is the problem with extrap SLPs in a system that is getting sheared...and over half exposed.

[RL3AO]

That VDM is more than an hour old. It was reissued to update the max FL winds.