ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

Sombrero Key is experiencing 54-mph wind gusts as of the last report with rapidly falling pressures. Note that this buoy's anemometer is at a non-standard 48-m height. Sombrero Key is about 45 to 55 miles north of Fay's center at present.

- Jay

When can SE FL metro areas experience noticeably stronger winds? I think there are many that think this will be mostly a rain event for Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade due to the calm winds at the moment but I noticed the NWS keeps bumping up the wind speed forecasts...now with 55-60mph gusts for these regions, especially the western areas.

I am in agreement with the NWSFO Miami's current zone forecasts. In general, look for windy conditions to develop around dusk for Miami Dade, during the evening hours farther north. Tropical storm conditions will overspread metro Southeast Florida overnight and on Tuesday.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

the NHC says 14 mph.......umm how so?

weird pivoting motion very intrested in next recon appears that center consolidated/ing about 30 miles SE of key west (actually this i'm pretty sure of)

x out frames that jump (126, 131, 144) and then you will see it clearly

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Evil Jeremy]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

Wind field is expanding.

[tolakram]

My plot, use for entertainment only. The dashed line is simple an extrapolation from yesterday and is not current.


AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

[capepoint]

ramrod key has pressure of 1004.9 gusts in the 40s from the e

[Sanibel]

You are seeing a post land crossing residual diminishment still. Delayed land drag. Keep watching as you see it rebound and manifest the SST it is currently crossing but hasn't translated into convection yet. Just like post Hispaniola, a d-min combined with land weakening.

[N2Storms]

[quote="storms in NC"]gatorcane Have you thought it may not hit Fla at all? It could happen. NOT saying it will be it could. I am think now they will move it even more east. With it slowing up will give her time to get her self together and streighten to at less a cat 1 maybe a 2. Just some things running in my head.

Some one said that they couldn't turn that fast. Yes she can. I have seen it done. I think it was dennis. Came right up to Wilm and Then he turned to the rightand out then looped back and gave us rain then floyd.[/quote]



I think you really need to defer to the NHC on the track...this has been an extremely had to storm to forecast, both in intensity and track but since they found a closed low and issued their initial forecast track they have done a pretty good job with this one given all of the variables at play here. I think they have a very handle on the forecast track right now, granted they may have to tweak it a little more eastward I still believe they have pretty decent confidence in their 48 hour forecast...IMO if this makes it to NC it will be as a remnant low in the middle of the state.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the NHC says 14 mph.......umm how so?

Looks that way on radar too. The center is quickly approaching Key West...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tolakram]

[capepoint]

looking at obs from around key west, I believe it is closer than I thought to the keys. Pressures are close to 1005 and wind dir from NE around to SE.

[capepoint]

nasty looking band coming onshore near marathon soon.

[CrazyC83]

Plane estimates down to 999 according to the NOAA plane.

[Sanibel]

That VDM center looks too far N from the visible loop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds continue to quickly spread north. Winds at Miami International are now gusting to 25mph, and in Homestead they are gusting to 31mph. These numbers are a far cry from the 7mph winds Miami was reporting 2 hours ago, and they should only continue to increase as we head through the afternoon.

Closer to the center, winds are even higher. In Key West they are now gusting to 51mph, in Marathon they are gusting to 40mph, and Long Key is gusting to 51-55mph.

[cpdaman]

best radar to see center SE of key west

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

also southern side is not doing much so as long as that is the case....good news

[sfwx]

Light to moderate rain here in Port St. Lucie since noon. My first day of school today with the kids and they cancelled school tomorrow. I guess I'll have to get them back on track Wednesday. Our district policy states that if there is a chance of sustained winds being over 40 mph, the buses cannot operate. Looks like we'll be making up the date over X-mas break. I believe we'll get plenty of rain from this but I don't see it being Irene like as far as the winds go.

Eric

[DESTRUCTION5]

MArtin and SLC Now Closed Tuesday

[capepoint]

center 25 miles se of key west on 2pm adv, so should be about 10 miles or so se of key west right now.

[sfwx]

St. Lucie County School District cancels after school activities today, closes schools and district offices for tomorrow

Wednesday's schedule is yet to be determined

Fort Pierce – After school activities for St. Lucie County Public Schools have been cancelled for today, and schools and district offices will be closed for students and staff on Tuesday, August 19, following the recommendation of St. Lucie County Emergency Management officials. High winds, heavy rain and possible tornadoes are forecast for the area as Tropical Storm Fay continues to move toward southwest Florida. The status of schools for Wednesday is currently undetermined.
Winds exceeding 40 MPH, which prohibits school buses from operating on the roadways, and anywhere from 4-10 inches of rain is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours, according to forecasters.
Today’s opening day for the 2008-2009 school year for St. Lucie County Public Schools went smoothly under normal operations.
“Parents should plan for closed schools Tuesday, and monitor school district communications and local media for news about Wednesday’s schedule,” Superintendent Michael Lannon said. Automated telephone calls will also be sent to parents, he added.
Information will also be updated on the school district web site at http://www.stlucie.k12.fl.us, on WLX-TV, the St. Lucie Education Channel on Comcast Cable channels 13 in north St. Lucie County, 19 in south St. Lucie County, and on Hometown Cable Channel 19 in Tradition
Janice Karst
District Communications Director
St Lucie County Public Schools
4204 Okeechobee Road
Ft. Pierce, Fl 34947
Phone: (772)429-5500
Fax: (772)429-5503

[Blown Away]

Fay looks to be right of the NHC track on the SFWMD Radar:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL