ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[UKane]

Hi I am JtSmarts, and I have been addicted to Storm2k for five years.

Hi I am UKane (if you use wunderground.com you will know me as Ipswichweathercenter) and I have been addicted to Storm2k for a short time.....

[medic8ed]

Manatee County (Tampa Bay south) is yawning. There aren't even any lines at the gas stations. They just now got around to closing schools on Tuesday.

[KWT]

tolakram, yep as i said earlier its still got a broad and elongated LLC, maybe not as bad as before but its still there from the looks of things.

Track now looks to be about 355 degrees IMO after looking at the loops, LLC did breifly shift a little to the NW but is now getting whipped back under the deeper convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pressure in Key West at 3:53pm = 999mb

They seem to still be in the broad center and are quickly approaching the middle of it. Pressures are now sub-1000 and winds are a light 7mph.

[RL3AO]

999mb extrap from AF and not quite to center yet.

[xironman]

On the nasa high res visible I can see the convection expand southwest, so the LLC should be still able to keep under it.

[O Town]

The first thing my kids told me when I picked them up from their first day of school was........No school tomorrow mom!!!!!
I think this maybe a little overboard all the way up here in Orange County, but I guess being cautious is way better than being too slack.

[Bgator]

VERY heavy rain in Coconut grove right now, no major wind though.

[srainhoutx]

FYI Just got off the phone with an old neighbor about 1/4 mile from the airport in EYW. Said thay had laid down for nap around noon and ask me if it was any closer. When I told them that land fall had occured, they laughed. Power is on and all is well. Maybe an inch or two of rain at most.

[KWT]

Looks like pressure has dropped a fair bit in the last 2hrs, possibly by a good 2-3mbs, no doubt this is below 1000mbs given recon obs and obs from Key west.

[OuterBanker]

That's great. What a success story. BTW, this site had improved every year. One other thing Cajun. Where did you get that avatar, I keep wanting to smash the corner of my screen

[Sanibel]

If it is going to intensify quickly you'll see bands diving or knife-ing into the center along with intensification jerks that will show up on radar. Or maybe even a core slot that rips away from the outside convection.

[Thunder44]

Mike Seidel on TWC just said that they don't think it will intensify to hurricane. Now I'm worried.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This looks like a 75 mph hurricane on satellite posted on the previous pages,
and it looks like with a very tight core of very intense convection
that intensification is occuring at a fast rate. The trough may be
venting this system and aiding intensification. Sea surface temperatures
and oceanic heat content also support fast intensification. This looks very
similar to the tightening, intensification, and trough venting that occurred
with Hurricane Charley. This could easily reach category 2 especially
if landfall is Fort Myers northward, or at least north of Naples.

[vbhoutex]

tolakram, yep as i said earlier its still got a broad and elongated LLC, maybe not as bad as before but its still there from the looks of things.

Track now looks to be about 355 degrees IMO after looking at the loops, LLC did breifly shift a little to the NW but is now getting whipped back under the deeper convection.

I have to agree with KWT that the center is still not tight. I just checked bouys all over the area and the winds back up a broad diffuse center with KW on the Western edge of it. I am surprised that Fay has not tightened up more, but my guess is the entrainment of some dry air from the West side(mentioned by NHC earlier)is the culprit here. If storms can wrap the center and spit out that dry air, we may still see a minimal hurricane before landfall. Hopefully all of the news out of Fay is good-i.e. drought buster with no damage otherwise.

[NEXRAD]

Mini-Supercell Heading towards Central Miami-Dade

The mini-supercell offshore Miami-Dade county that previously prompted NWSFO Miami to hoist a special marine warning is fast approaching Central Miami-Dade County. The storm cell will move over downtown Miami, South Miami, and Coral Gables by 4:25 PM, and will be near West Miami and Sweetwater by 4:45 PM. While the low level rotation has weakened slightly, the storm cell may briefly strengthen as it moves onshore. Keep alert for a possible special weather statement or warning. Also, some dry air has filtered over Broward, south Palm Beach, and parts of Glades and Collier counties. This dry air ahead of the band associated with the near-Miami storm cell may locally enhance the potential for rotating storm cells during the next hour or two.

- Jay

[BigA]

Could someone post a link to one of the rapidly updating visible loops? I would be most appreciative.

[deltadog03]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recon finds central pressure of 998mb.

[Sanibel]

Better defined TS "eye" on Key West radar.