ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

click this link and you will see impressive spiraling rand bands that are intensifying


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[KWT]

wxman57, wouldn't 20 miles east of fort.myres mean it comes onshore below Naples then?

Looking pretty decent and pressure is clearly dropping but thus far winds aren't really increasing. Given its got 6hrs to strengthen odds for a hurricane its still 50-50 IMO.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

based on the latest recon fix its moving northwest again.

[rockyman]

Is this significant? 6 hours ago, westerly on the northern Gulf Coast (to push the system NE)



Now, those westerlies have been replaced by a southeast flow:

[tolakram]

If it's moving north then why is Key West about to be hit again by the northern edge of the convection. I'm confused. Could the low be tightening up and shrinking south?

[gatorcane]

Wxman, I think mainland S. Florida is going to experience TS gusts. In fact West Kendall already close to TS gusts. The local weather forecasts are are agreeing that mainland south florida could see up to 55mph gusts at this point.

Ironically enough that is more wind than NWS Tampa is predicting for alot of the Greater Tampa bay area yet Tampa is under a hurricane watch.

MIAMI LGT RAIN 78 74 87 E13G25 29.85F
WEST KENDALL RAIN 75 73 94 E18G35 29.83F FOG
HOMESTEAD RAIN 77 73 88 E18G38 29.81F FOG

[RL3AO]

VDM shows center still SW of Key West.

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Evil Jeremy]

At 5 PM EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning on the Florida East Coast
is extended northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning
is now in effect along the Florida East Coast from Flagler Beach
southward...including Lake Okeechobee.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
the Florida West Coast north of Anna Maria Island to Tarpon
Springs. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for this area.

At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the Hurricane Watch is discontinued for the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West...including the Dry
Tortugas...and for the Florida Mainland east of Flamingo to Card
Sound bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for this
area.

[KWT]

The convective bands are pretty powerful, bet there would be TS gusts in them.

tolakram, thats quite possible given who knows though with these sort of systems its hard to tell.

[cpdaman]

pity the turtles on the dry tortugas

center is spinning just to their east, they are stuck in the "eye"/center wall

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical storm center located near 24.6n 81.9w at 18/2100z

present movement toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 kt

[Evil Jeremy]

estimated minimum central pressure 998 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.

[Lifesgud2]

Wxman, I think mainland S. Florida is going to experience TS gusts. In fact West Kendall already close to TS gusts. The local weather forecasts are are agreeing that mainland south florida could see up to 55mph gusts at this point.

MIAMI LGT RAIN 78 74 87 E13G25 29.85F
WEST KENDALL RAIN 75 73 94 E18G35 29.83F FOG
HOMESTEAD RAIN 77 73 88 E18G38 29.81F FOG

I must say that the wind here in lauderdale is still as can be. I havent seen a gust over 5mph today.

[tolakram]

Latest, Key West winds slightly south of east.

[cpdaman]

LLC (that has been on SW side of convection and been consistent with lowest recon pressures) appears to be pivoting SSE now (after it long journey west) most likely around a broad center

zoom in on the little island west of key west

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[deltadog03]

Storm is tilting to the NE, it appears....Might see some NNE movement in the coming hours.

[gatorcane]

Wxman, I think mainland S. Florida is going to experience TS gusts. In fact West Kendall already close to TS gusts. The local weather forecasts are are agreeing that mainland south florida could see up to 55mph gusts at this point.

MIAMI LGT RAIN 78 74 87 E13G25 29.85F
WEST KENDALL RAIN 75 73 94 E18G35 29.83F FOG
HOMESTEAD RAIN 77 73 88 E18G38 29.81F FOG

I must say that the wind here in lauderdale is still as can be. I havent seen a gust over 5mph today.

as NEXRAD mentioned its because the Western Atlantic ridge has not let go of its grip yet -- Fay should overpower it with time.

[Canelaw99]

But those numbers don't match up with what recon just sent back with the VDM. It's 20 till 5....couldn't they have waited and included the recon info? She just seems to look better/sound better than what they put on paper....
<---- is confused by that

[tgenius]

Storm is tilting to the NE, it appears....Might see some NNE movement in the coming hours.

Deltadog, do you think that this is the "expected" NE turn starting to happen?