ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

fort lauderdale will be getting some wind gusts on the beaches as i type this from that "bowish" shaped band coming ashore

[GreenSky]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

[KWT]

Strong bands moving through south Florida now, heavy rainfalls and I think there is also a reasonable chance of a few tornadoes.

Also radar now finally shows the center pretty well with convection wrapping around the southern flank, finally can use the radar as a decent thing to track.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Last two VDMs still shows northwest movement of .08N, .13W

[KWT]

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

I don't agree with that, its hardly pathetic with deep convection on the northern side of the system, yep its a little lackluster on the southern side but what do you expect with a mid-strong TS.

[cpdaman]

I was not expecting this center location.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

This is an amateur plot and is NOT a forecast.

why , they had been using that little LCC/eddy all day (that has been on the sW side of the broad center) it had been moving westward from 330 to 430 pm and now sunk south of dry tortugas

[Brent]

I was not expecting this center location.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

This is an amateur plot and is NOT a forecast.

Quite an erratic track. Very interesting.

[Evil Jeremy]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

This is not a "pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm". This is a strengthening storm that people need to prepare for. This storm is going to slam people with 60 MPH winds, start up Tornadoes, Flood areas, and probably take lives. This is not pathetic.

[tolakram]

If you're on Key West you get to experience some extended time in the middle of this storm.

[ronjon]

Based on its current position (81.9W) - if it goes due north from here the center will track into Captiva Island near Ft Myers. If it manages to get to 82.3W, the center will cross Venice FL, 82.4W Sarasota, and 82.5W Tampa Bay.

[NEXRAD]

Low-topped shower activity is becoming better established southwest and south of Fay's center. Some of the cells towards the southwest are also gradually strengthening. A slight west nudge in Fay's SW quadrant moisture fields suggests that dry air entrainment may become less of a problem for the tropical storm as we move into the evening hours.

- Jay

[RL3AO]

Fay is not forecast to even become a hurricane now!

Just a plain old tropical storm now...not that big a deal...Edouard looked better than this pathetic lop-sided sheared dry-air entrained hybrid looking storm

The NHC is still probalby thinking it will be a hurricane. But since landfall will occur between forecast points, it doesn't show it.

[KWT]

Yep looks like the ey west have had a lot of time in the center.

Also that recon placement is pretty interesting, does suggest its been wobbling its way NNW, interesting to see the center jog NW recently as well!

[Evil Jeremy]

so are Palm Beach County school closed for tomorrow?

We will know in about an hour.

[caneman]

Bee nwatching that too Ronjon. If it slips by Ft. Meyers, more time over the water.

[robbielyn]

That advisory leaves you scratching your head????

Think about it this storm is getting its act together from 4:30 onward that info from the nhc is older than that so you are seeing an ever evolving storm and it is leaving that advisory in the dust.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think she is about to go NNE within the next 6 hours ago. As soon as the trough axis racing through Miss/Georgia passes the longitude Fay is over, it should happen. I think Fay winds up moving up the state East of Ft.Myers and Naples by anywhere from 25-50 miles and favors the eastern side of the NHC cone (another track nudge East may happen at the 11pm EST advisory).

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... latest.gif

[NEXRAD]

fort lauderdale will be getting some wind gusts on the beaches as i type this from that "bowish" shaped band coming ashore

There are a couple of small-scale, weak, circulations embedded within the eastern half of that bowing-band. I'd expect to see some 30 to 45 mph gusts along the coast of NE Broward County as the band works onshore.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

fort lauderdale will be getting some wind gusts on the beaches as i type this from that "bowish" shaped band coming ashore

There are a couple of small-scale, weak, circulations embedded within the eastern half of that bowing-band. I'd expect to see some 30 to 45 mph gusts along the coast of NE Broward County as the band works onshore.

- Jay

oh good , perhaps i will venture out to the beach in SE boca raton in about 8 minutes lol

[Shockwave]

This storm did drop its mb pressure thought, so that means it's still growing.