ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

I don't remember Elena

[NEXRAD]

Jay, can you explain again why the winds have not picked up in the metro areas? Thanks.

For the Miami metro area the winds have not picked-up because the area is now under a dry-slot. Without convection to draw stronger winds aloft to the surface, higher winds are very unlikely. The general pressure gradient could yield sustained 15 to 25 mph winds with occasional higher gusts, however. New cells are building into the dry slot behind the band situated well east of Miami Dade County at present, and an additional band is moving north through the Upper Keys. Therefore, additional convection can be expected for the Miami metro area before 8PM.
- Jay

[Canelaw99]

You know....now that you mention that, we have a ton of frogs and lizards that live by our front door and in our outside storage room, and not a single one was around today....nowhere...not on the back patio either....hmmmmmm

[HURAKAN]

[NEXRAD]

The First bow echo I drove through:




And the next coming ashore:



CAREFUL in Boca/North Broward!

After those two...should be a quiet spell for a while in SE florida as we catch the dry air entrainment...i see a big gap on radar

Scattered cells are quickly developing behind the 2nd (North Broward) band at present and these are working more WNW to NW towards the Miami metro area. More northward-moving bands south of Key Largo will likely interact with these discrete cells and may allow convective enhancement to take place.

- Jay

[Shockwave]

I don't remember Elena

Thanks, wish I wouldn't of asked for that map. How long did she stay out in the Gulf? And can anyone give a reason to why she stalled?

[JPmia]

Jay - Do you think this slowing/stall we are seeing with Fay is what was predicted earlier today with the Euro that basically had the storm still sitting over KYW for about 24 hours?

The NWSFO Melbourne WRF model showed Fay slowing and stalling near Key West tonight, too. I don't think Fay will sit over Key West for 24 hours, but I don't think it will resume its previous quicker forward motion, either.

- Jay

Nexrad..thanks for your posts....they are very informative for us South Floridians...just went through that squall line that was bowing north...wasn't too bad..but did have that tropical feel to it...not the garden variety afternoon thunderstorm...and hear a little howl in the gusts that's the sound of a tropical system! (just not very strong thankfully)

[Sanibel]

Back from causeway. Holy moly! Big Irene track shift here! Miami not out of question now.

This may end up coming nowhere near Sanibel.

Plenty of wading birds hunkering here on Sanibel and lots of fish-hunting bird activity as if they had no worry. Flocks of Ibis in back yard. Saw Manatee headed for deep water under causeway high bridge.

On causeway you could see blue sky to west that is the hard trough that is repelling Fay ENE. Beautiful storm bands and slate dark blue gray skies to south. White low level bands in rotation towards storm. When I was out on the causeway I wondered why the storm wasn't coming closer.

[Pearl River]

KEYW:

KEYW (Key West International)
Current METAR
KEYW 182153Z AUTO 34006KT 10SM FEW017 SCT025 BKN034 27/25 A2948 RMK AO2 RAB42E52 SLP981 P0000 T02670250=


Time: 5:53 PM EDT Wind Dir: 340
Pressure: 29.48 Wind Speed: 06
Temperature: 80 F Altimeter: 29.48
Dewpoint: 77 F Clouds/Wx/Remarks: FEW017 SCT025 BKN034
Visibility: 10 Statute Miles

[KWT]

Fay seems to have slowed right down. I do agree with Jay that it may not be moving and instead what we are seeing the bands tigthening up around where the ture center is over Key west.

however equaly it really could be a wobble, hard to say but the slow down was well predicted by the models.

[NEXRAD]

Jay - Do you think this slowing/stall we are seeing with Fay is what was predicted earlier today with the Euro that basically had the storm still sitting over KYW for about 24 hours?

The NWSFO Melbourne WRF model showed Fay slowing and stalling near Key West tonight, too. I don't think Fay will sit over Key West for 24 hours, but I don't think it will resume its previous quicker forward motion, either.

- Jay

Nexrad..thanks for your posts....they are very informative for us South Floridians...just went through that squall line that was bowing north...wasn't too bad..but did have that tropical feel to it...not the garden variety afternoon thunderstorm...and hear a little howl in the gusts that's the sound of a tropical system! (just not very strong thankfully)

Thanks, JPmia - I enjoy sharing my observations with others here, and likewise reading what others are thinking and seeing with Fay.

Jay

[RL3AO]

Thanks, wish I wouldn't of asked for that map. How long did she stay out in the Gulf? And can anyone give a reason to why she stalled?

A trough caused it to turn towards Florida, but it was moving so fast it ended up out running Elena leaving weak steering currents. Then ridging built back in. It stalled for 2 or 3 days over the NE GOM. Kinda sounds like the current situation, excep the trough isn't moving that fast.

[lbvbl]

Per Ed Rappaport at NHC:
They've noticed the indications of rapid motion/tornadic activity. Worst of that has moved N of the lower Keys. We'll see more over the peninsula tonight and in the morning. I think what we're seeing (the easterly jog/move) is a reorganization of the center and strengthening. The northward heading is still the best one to follow, and that would bring the center over the coast of SW FL, and the conditions in SE FL should begin to improve tonight and into the morning.

according to our local news station, the worst conditions for SE FL will actually begin late tonight and go into the morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon just took off. This is probably one of the most important Fay related missions they will have. This mission will tell us how strong Fay really is now, and where it really is now.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=3

She is fishing in Key West.

[CronkPSU]

i have no idea what this storm is doing, I look at the radar from weather underground and it seems to be getting worse looking and moving east

i look at the floaters and it seems to be organizing very well now and moving west

UGH!!!!

[CourierPR]

To borrow from WXMAN57, look at the circulation envelope and tell me in which direction the clouds are pointing.

[jinftl]

News reporting possible tornado damage near I-95 and Hallandale Beach Blvd. in Broward County

[JPmia]

well the barometer at my house is reading 1013mb and has the direction arrow pointing down...and it looks like the center is not moving much to the north? isn't this what the EURO was forecasting earlier today?

[Canelaw99]

lbvbl - I agree with that b/c most of our locals are saying that too (not sure where you're located - S FL???)....I think Rappaport was just basing his statements off their last advisory...wouldn't be great for him to get on air within 1 hour of the last advisory and say, "well, that's what we put on paper, but this is what's really going to happen" LOL People would lose all sorts of respect for a super-tough job. And now, with this...stall???....we're in for it for a while. JMO....