ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bgator]

If you look at this radar loop, it still looks like a N motion.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

[RL3AO]

i have no idea what this storm is doing, I look at the radar from weather underground and it seems to be getting worse looking and moving east

i look at the floaters and it seems to be organizing very well now and moving west

UGH!!!!

WHAT? Radar shows it getting organized very quickly.

[NEXRAD]

Banding features are starting to look better and Fay's CDO is becoming much better established over the storm's center. Upper level divergence has improved in all quadrants and the latest CIMSS analysis indicates weakened shear over and southwest of Fay during the past 24-hours. A few stronger cells are beginning to wrap around the SE quadrant of the storm's circulation center and composite radar imagery from Key West is showing a more visible stacked core. It looks like Fay might strengthen more quickly during the evening.

- Jay

[baygirl_1]

Okay, this was just posted on one of our local TV news websites (http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/port_conditions_in_effect_for_panhandle/17005/)

Port Condition 4 In Effect For Panhandle
Published: Mon, August 18, 2008 - 4:33 pm
Last Updated: Mon, August 18, 2008 - 4:39 pm
Coast Guard sets port condition for Florida panhandle
MOBILE, Ala. - The Coast Guard set the Port Status for the Panhandle of Florida to Condition 4 today, a 72-hour alert, in anticipation of Tropical Storm Fay.
Tropical Storm Fay could affect waterways from approximately mile marker 175, in Pensacola, Fla., of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway east to mile marker 432, in Panama City, Fla., including the Port of Pensacola and the Port of Panama City.
Mariners are encouraged to use all means available to monitor the path of the Tropical Storm Fay and remain prepared to take actions as the weather system develops.
The following actions are required when a port is in condition 4:
(1) Masters, owners, operators, terminals, and agents of all ocean going commercial vessels and CG regulated barges shall notify the captain of the port (COTP) as soon as possible of intentions to depart or remain in port.
(2) Vessels desiring to remain in port may be required to submit a written request to the COTP along with a mooring plan. This includes vessels in lay up status.
(3) During commercial vessel loading operations, terminals should make allowances for requirements of vessels that may be required to depart the port.
(4) Ocean going ships and CG regulated barges greater than 200 GT remaining in port should have the outboard anchor at short stay, adequate mooring lines out, have a navigation watch set and maintain a listening watch on Channel 16 VHF-FM.
(5) Measures for attaining maximum stability for all vessels should be considered. Vessels required to depart port shall ensure cargo operations are secured to meet sail times. The COTP will consult with shipping and cargo handling interests regarding the time of phase down and termination of cargo handling operations, if necessary, for those vessels remaining in port.
4. Ports and mariners are cautioned that the COTP Mobile may quickly set Port Status X-ray and further conditions as the situation develops.
Current information may be obtained from the captain of the port voice mail announcement System at phone number 251-441-5080.

I looked up Port Status X-Ray and found this:

This readiness condition is set when threatening winds of 39 mph are possible within 48 hours.
Under condition X-Ray:
Ports should remove potential flying debris, hazardous materials and oil pollution hazards from dockside areas.
Coast Guard port survey teams conduct surveys.
Oceangoing commercial vessels greater than 500 gross tons must prepare to depart the port.
Vessels that are unable to depart the port must contact the Captain of the Port to request and receive permission to remain in port.

(http://coastguardnews.com/coast-guard-sets-port-condition-x-ray-for-wilmington-and-morehead-city/2007/09/08/
Anybody have any idea why they are doing this for the Panhandle? And, perhaps, Mobile? Just a precaution? I'm confused...

[HurricaneHunter914]

If you look at this radar loop, it still looks like a N motion.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

It appears that she's finally closed off her eye aswell. This next recon will be very interesting.

[CronkPSU]

If you look at this radar loop, it still looks like a N motion.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

looks like it is going nowhere in that one, maybe a tad east at the end

[JPmia]

i live near the FLL airport and the planes are taking off back to back right now...guess they want to get them out here? you can hear them one after the other.

[CrazyC83]

I guess Fay decided to invade the liquor joints in Key West and decided to get drunk?

[jinftl]

Ed Rappaport on Channel 7...he believes strengthening trend has begun...conditions not to improve in south fl until later tomorrow

[Sanibel]

Reading this board I'm amazed no one has figured out that Fay is hitting a hard trough border and scooting out NE ala Irene. I saw the dry air to the west a few minutes ago at the beach. We may even have some sun. Absolutely beautiful view of bands and storm sky to the south.

[KWT]

Totally agree Jay this is looking increasingly good, the CDO is small but holding deep convection and the banding is become more and more noticeable, esp on radar obviously.
Would think that this will be a hurricane before landfall now, I certainly expect steady strengthening from now on till landfall.

Sanibel, I mentioned earlier that the slow down in movement probably is suggestive of a track change.

[Bocadude85]

do not think southeast florida will see much in the way of wind.. probably 20mph or so imho

[jinftl]

Already seen gusts over 50 mph in dade and broward...

do not think southeast florida will see much in the way of wind.. probably 20mph or so imho

[Scorpion]

do not think southeast florida will see much in the way of wind.. probably 20mph or so imho

How? It's moving closer to our direction.

[Buck]

When does recon fly out next?

[chris_fit]

Can any of the pro mets comment on the "eastward" drift/jog/movement/etc that we can "see" on radar out of key west? Is this for real or just one of those illusions?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Canelaw99]

They're out/on the way now

[RL3AO]

When does recon fly out next?

They took off about an hour ago.

[Sanibel]

What you see as a stall will probably end up being Fay sliding slowly out NE as the trough pushes it into the axis which has moved more east than progged.

[mesocyclone]

I think the wobbling and moving everyone is seeing is just Fay building her eye wall up, I don't believe she is moving anywhere at this point.