ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sean in New Orleans]

The issue is this--I'm seeing more and more uncertainty about the future of this system. The steering atmosphere is collapsing, models are picking up on that fact, and the system is slowing down. I am one who stares at systems (particularly those in the GOM or SE) until they are certainly dead. Stay tuned. Not that it matters, but, there is a reason I have come on the board, have begun to watch more closely, and am posting at all.....For what it's worth, I'm in Illinois right now on vacation. I am not in New Orleans. But, I am returning to New Orleans on Thursday and I am watching, now, more closely.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[dmaui]

Looks due N on radar, but on the IR looks like the trough is starting to push Fay NNE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Looks like NNE to me, too. Gonna be a long night, and if she moves as slow as NHC suggests, a long day, too.

[Bgator]

Just went out side, has a strong band here in Miami, saw some of the famous blue-ish flashes in the background of transformers blowing.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Just went out side, has a strong band here in Miami, saw some of the famous blue-ish flashes in the background of transformers blowing.

What are your sustained winds in Miami this evening?

[Bgator]

Just went out side, has a strong band here in Miami, saw some of the famous blue-ish flashes in the background of transformers blowing.

What are your sustained winds in Miami this evening?

Wish i knew exact, dont have a PWS....Not comparing this at all to lets say wilma, or even katrina when it hit Miami, but im kind of in TC withdrawal, itrs been awhile. lol.

[Sean in New Orleans]

but, there is a reason I have come on the board

We know. I've been around a while too, just not as a poster. You're not adding anything to this conversation except to tell us how you aren't interested. I understand, you're not interested ... except you've seen a wiggly line that might take it to NO. At least be honest about it.

I'm here because I have been watching this system in Illinois and have noticed that the future is becoming more uncertain and I am returning to New Orleans on Thursday. I want to see what is up. It's not impressive this evening, although, it may be organizing better in the last hour or so. If your home was in New Orleans, wouldn't you feel the same way? I'm watching a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Evil Jeremy]

Winds picking up in Plantation. I don't know how strong they are, but I can here them. Thunder as well.

[paintplaye]

I would not be surprised if it only grazes Naples. Seems like it is heading a very tad west.

[Sanibel]

Steady light to moderate rain here with mild gusts.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Just went out side, has a strong band here in Miami, saw some of the famous blue-ish flashes in the background of transformers blowing.

What are your sustained winds in Miami this evening?

Wish i knew exact, dont have a PWS....Not comparing this at all to lets say wilma, or even katrina when it hit Miami, but im kind of in TC withdrawal, itrs been awhile. lol.

I'm just wondering, since you say that the lights may be going out in Miami. I don't think we can compare this system to past hurricanes, but, it's intriquing if transformers are blowing in Miami. That's some pretty significant winds. Wish you the best! I hope you don't go dark.

[HURAKAN]

So far today: 3.15 inches of rain and a gust of 27 mph.

[Bgator]

but, there is a reason I have come on the board

We know. I've been around a while too, just not as a poster. You're not adding anything to this conversation except to tell us how you aren't interested. I understand, you're not interested ... except you've seen a wiggly line that might take it to NO. At least be honest about it.

I'm here because I have been watching this system in Illinois and have noticed that the future is becoming more uncertain and I am returning to New Orleans on Thursday. I want to see what is up. It's not impressive this evening, although, it may be organizing better in the last hour or so. If your home was in New Orleans, wouldn't you feel the same way? I'm watching a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

One thing that bothers me in what you say, is many people here have been hit by a major storm, in my case Andrew. So if your home was anywhere, something will eventually effect you. I would be more scared living in an area that hasnt been hit by a big one in awhile.
And to what you say about the lights in Miami, as of 8, there were 7000 customers without power. Unlucky people

[Sanibel]

Still hours away from any west side winds here.

[vbhoutex]

Not seeing the eye feature yet, but Fay appears to be wrapping up better and better to me. CAT1 at landfall?

I am becoming more concerned about the models and what they are beginning to show as Fay makes her way up the peninsula. If she continues to move as slowly as she has been or moves even more slowly then it does become a real possibility that she could turn back towards the West and make it back over water. If the ridge builds quickly this scenario really becomes a possibility imo. Probability???? Not sure, but I have seen weirder(Elena) If that happens, who knows what is next? This has been and continues to be one of the strangest storms I have ever tracked. Maybe I need to add difficult to that too.

[HURAKAN]

[fci]

I see a strengthening system, only a matter of time before winds push down to the surface across Southern FLorida.

Lord have mercy...because I'm not going nuts over this system, I'm now a "curse word." All I said was I'm not impressed. You want me to lie? It's mid August....come back around and you'll see which ones impress me. Ask some of the seasoned posters on this board if I have gotten active at the right time over the course of the last 5 years on this board. I'm watching the system, but, goodness, it's not that impressive. That is what it is.

Sean:
I agree with you.
I "shudder" at the thought of a 50 or 60 MPH gust here

You went through one heck of a nightmare with Katrina and we went through Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in a rather short period of time. I will not forget reading your harrowing account of your experience with Katrina.
Fay is a joke compared to them and if I lived elsewhere I would be paying very little heed to it.

Hey, it is just what we needed here, a drought buster that can help fill a Lake that has been dangerously low in the past year. And since it is where I live I am paying real close attention to it.

But, you do get blasted for stating your opinion.
Not from me.

Good luck the rest of the season.

[HURAKAN]

Not seeing the eye feature yet, but Fay appears to be wrapping up better and better to me. CAT1 at landfall?

I am becoming more concerned about the models and what they are beginning to show as Fay makes her way up the peninsula. If she continues to move as slowly as she has been or moves even more slowly then it does become a real possibility that she could turn back towards the West and make it back over water. If the ridge builds quickly this scenario really becomes a possibility imo. Probability???? Not sure, but I have seen weirder(Elena) If that happens, who knows what is next? This has been and continues to be one of the strangest storms I have ever tracked. Maybe I need to add difficult to that too.

Even if we get Ginger 2, I wouldn't be surprised. Fay has been difficult to forecast and why would we expect that to change in the future!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got a question,

What are the chances that this could turn more eastward then predicted by the nhc. In which case would allow it to get out into the Atlantic farther south. That would increase its chances of coming back into the gulf.

[StJoe]

well, it's 11:36 in wellington and Fay has begun to play. Sustained winds maybe 10-15mph, but gusts at least 35-40mph; have to mention that I live on a lake as well...could be why.

J~