Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[ROCK]

THat run of the NAM has her crawling.

yeah, very slow indeed.....shes not moving much right now either....she might not make it intact if she lingers inland for long. Again that is if the NAM can be trusted in this run.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Dean or Rock, what of the chances of that actually verifying? If it were how long would it continue to move west before getting turned north by the next trough?

[PTPatrick]

Well, I still certainly concerned about this possiblity of Fay re-emerging into the Gulf later in the week(although interestingly the 0z nam position at 84 hours is about the same as the GFS position at like 120). That tells me there is tons of uncertainty, which is typically the case with models in these situations where Highs try to build SW with a storm nears the SE US coast. In any case...a bigger concern, as I am not great at reading upper level charts....anybody want to take a stab on possible strength senarios if this were to come back to say, Mobile, as in the GFS. MY gut would tell me it would be a shell of her former self, but I also know these senarios can actually create favorable situations for development.

Interestingly, the NAM at 0z is the first one that I have seen to NOT exit this off NE FL coast before coming back....rather it kinda stalls it near Orlando and shoots it west earlier than the GFS would have. In any case, I think that would in general mean high possiblity of a stronger NGOM storm as it would spend less time interacting with land. ok...thats all I got, fire away.

[ROCK]

FWIW, i just don't agree with the GFS taking Fay'er back west in the GOM then heading back NE to Alabama...The thing is everyone have the trough picking her up just don't know when and where.

everyone Coop? I have seen more models suggesting a westward track and reentry in the EGOM today. EURO seemed to be sniffing this out as well........I guess we will see what the next GFS run has in store....

[ROCK]

Dean or Rock, what of the chances of that actually verifying? If it were how long would it continue to move west before getting turned north by the next trough?

good question....need to see the GFDL jump as well as the CMC and others before I would make a call. Watch the next GFS run coming out in 15 minutes should provide some clues.....

speculating if it was to re-enter at say the Tampa area, maybe as far west as LA/MS line....before the next trof weakens the high enough......

[Wx_Warrior]

As far as her going back into the GOM, i'm going with EURO as she stays over land (at least it had in Monday 12z run)....

[ROCK]

As far as her going back into the GOM, i'm going with EURO as she stays over land (at least it had in Monday 12z run)....

EURO hugger.......

[canetracker]

Dean or Rock, what of the chances of that actually verifying? If it were how long would it continue to move west before getting turned north by the next trough?

good question....need to see the GFDL jump as well as the CMC and others before I would make a call. Watch the next GFS run coming out in 15 minutes should provide some clues.....

speculating if it was to re-enter at say the Tampa area, maybe as far west as LA/MS line....before the next trof weakens the high enough......

Agree Rock. 00z runs should add some more clarification to whether or not this pans out. I always look for model consistency and current data.

[mattpetre]

Anyone looking at this? I really do believe that low that was in the Northern Rockies/Plains 5 days ago is becoming part of the reason this may head W. eventually... I thought that might be the case, but not exactly like this. Seems the ULL is actually re-enforcing the westerly steering component at this point. I throw my hands up and just watch in awe.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local tv met said he needs to keep a real close eye on her towards the end of the week. Said Fay "could" make it north to around Jacksonville, FL then get turned wsw by a strong high back into the gulf and head back towards LA/MS by end of week. Just depends on how strong the high gets.

[PTPatrick]

Man, she is crawling right now...0z GFS still has her at Around everglades city in 12 hours

[chris_fit]

new gfs 12hr

[PTPatrick]

30 hrs, just West of Melbourne

[chris_fit]

30 hrs, just West of Melbourne

Yup.... 18-30 hours doesn't move much...

[canetracker]

deleted duplicate

[chris_fit]

42 hour.... still of the E Central FL coast line....

[PTPatrick]

If I am correct and the 500 MB winds are the steering currents...then at 42 hours its pretty much just hanging around with light upper level winds...of course, as I stated, I suck at upper level charts

[ROCK]

nasty high building 1028 to her north at 66hrs....she been into the ALT for some time over the gulf stream. Reintenification not out of the question. At 66hr she is beginning her trek for a 3rd landfall..

it takes her a while but at 84hr shes going into FL.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

She's pesky like that Pearland Oiler football team

[ROCK]

She's pesky like that Pearland Oiler football team

yeah I live right next to the RIG.....its rockin on Friday nights.....