ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[boca]

I'm so involved with Fay which is directly affecting me. Whats the synoptic set up with 94L,will it make it across?

models point 94 to eastern fla, and are near the ne antilles or ne of there in about 5 days. Ridge appears to be strong enough to push this west.

OMG if that happens it will be like 04 again with Frances then Jeanne.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm so involved with Fay which is directly affecting me. Whats the synoptic set up with 94L,will it make it across?

models point 94 to eastern fla, and are near the ne antilles or ne of there in about 5 days. Ridge appears to be strong enough to push this west.

OMG if that happens it will be like 04 again with Frances then Jeanne.

Well it all is determined by if/how fast it develops. Personally I expect slow development of this system for the next 5 days, because of possible shear problems...not sure about after that.

[boca]

Its at 37w I got some time to watch this develop after I'm done with Fay.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[cheezyWXguy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

wow not sounding great in terms of near term development. can someone post a current shear map?

[HURAKAN]

Sleeping time! 'til later.

[RL3AO]

wow not sounding great in terms of near term development. can someone post a current shear map?

Shear is basically none for the next day or two.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow not sounding great in terms of near term development. can someone post a current shear map?

Shear is basically none for the next day or two.

No kidding...what is the NHC talking about? Shear looks nonexistent in the near term on both the cimss and ssd shear maps. The most I see from now to the 5 day location on that map is 20kt...but of course that can change over time. What is it that is supposed to create this shear?

[RL3AO]

No kidding...what is the NHC talking about? Shear looks nonexistent in the near term on both the cimss and ssd shear maps. The most I see from now to the 5 day location on that map is 20kt...but of course that can change over time. What is it that is supposed to create this shear?

The TUTT directly north of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

No kidding...what is the NHC talking about? Shear looks nonexistent in the near term on both the cimss and ssd shear maps. The most I see from now to the 5 day location on that map is 20kt...but of course that can change over time. What is it that is supposed to create this shear?

The TUTT directly north of it.

Oh geez...and it dropping wsw in sync with the storm moving wnw. Is it supposed to weaken or strengthen by the time they reach close proximity?

WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[RL3AO]

Whats an invest need to do to be upgraded?

[fasterdisaster]

Why does the NHC hate upgrading systems in the Far Atlantic so much? I understand it's not affecting anyone right now but for posterity it's really ridiculous.

[Brent]

Looks like a TD and what's that behind it?

[fasterdisaster]

Its demon spawn.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC doesn't sound so enthusiastic to upgrade it either. If this was in the GOM, they would have named it Gustav already.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190558
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

AL, 94, 2008081906, , BEST, 0, 131N, 370W, 25, 1009, DB

That update was late so I thought they might be thinking about it but no.

[cheezyWXguy]

AL, 94, 2008081906, , BEST, 0, 131N, 370W, 25, 1009, DB

That update was late so I thought they might be thinking about it but no.

Ill say 11am if it maintains.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

AL, 94, 2008081906, , BEST, 0, 131N, 370W, 25, 1009, DB

That update was late so I thought they might be thinking about it but no.

Ill say 11am if it maintains.

I say it looks very good. I would agree.

[KWT]

Convection still present with this system as still pretty deep, the ULL is digging down towards 94L slowly but surely so that probably will shear it like the models show BUT despite that...surely this is a TD in all but name, don't know why the NHC are holding back to be honest!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system looks great and would be a shoe in if it was not for the shear starting to effect it. The MDR is kind of unfavorable if you ask me at the moment.