ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Hmmm not so quick Sanibel the models are suggesting that we may yet get at least one more landfall again from Fay if it gets back over water, I'm not sure if Fay is done just yet...

[Aric Dunn]

Just felt like posting this cause its a very pretty picture I think..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

[Thunder44]

the 00z euro does not do what the official forecast says.. lol


THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

The 0z Euro is further south and west, but their forecast track is probably the closest to that model.

[KWT]

Well its moving NNE right now at 25 degrees offically but the shorter term motion has possibly been closer to the NE so who knows Matt.

Also yep Aric thats a really good iamge, can see the wya the eye has if anything tightened up breifly.

[Aric Dunn]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

my personal short term track has it offshore just north of west palm tomorrow evening..

should cross right over lake ockechobee

[KWT]

Also yep NHC track is a middle ground but I think with this set-up its one or the other really, the NHC halfway point probably won't happen IMO, either it heads NE like the GFDL and gets a decent way into the Atlantic before bending back to some degree, or it doesn't and bends sharply back into the gulf like the global models suggest.

[Aric Dunn]

the 00z euro does not do what the official forecast says.. lol


THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

The 0z Euro is further south and west, but their forecast track is probably the closest to that model.

which means they are completely opposite the euro .. the euro comes of just south of Melbourne heads ene slightly then back west .. that is not what the nhc even remotely does..

[StJoe]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

my personal short term track has it offshore just north of west palm tomorrow evening..

should cross right over lake ockechobee

So we are all in agreement...for now

[KWT]

It all depends on the exact motion over the next 12hrs IMO as to what will happen, the further east this system can get before any bend back will probably allow for a stronger storm.

[xironman]

my personal short term track has it offshore just north of west palm tomorrow evening

So you are giving it almost 36 hrs over Florida?

Edit wrong tag

[sfwx]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
6 products issued by NWS for: 10 Miles WNW Port St. Lucie FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC111-191030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0013.080819T0950Z-080819T1030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...FORT PIERCE INLET...WHITE
CITY...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR PLANT...PORT SAINT LUCIE...INDRIO...FORT
PIERCE...

* UNTIL 630 AM EDT

* AT 544 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
WALTON...OR ABOUT NEAR STUART...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WALTON BY 555 AM EDT...
PORT SAINT LUCIE AND PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK BY 600 AM EDT...
SAINT LUCIE WEST...AND WHITE CITY BY 605 AM EDT...

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2726 8022 2732 8023 2734 8026 2727 8023
2727 8029 2724 8029 2724 8030 2721 8029
2720 8034 2731 8062 2755 8033 2750 8029
2744 8027 2740 8025 2726 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 130DEG 30KT 2722 8027

$$



BRAGAW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The more east it goes also the less time it spends over Florida, this is because Florida is thin west to east. While it would spend a lot of time going northeast up the state. It would not suprize me if it went east or east-northeast that it could move back into the Atlantic by this time tomarrow.

[KWT]

Of course thats another thing that will need to be watched closely as this goes Florida, the threat of tornadoes, does anyone have a rough idea how many there have been thus far?

Matt, yeah I'm not going to go quite that extreme but I think a NE motion is looking possible, I think the foward speed is more key however...

[deltadog03]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

I think so too...GFDL looks** like it may have the best track across florida...I just can't see t his taking 48 hours to clear florida...

[Aric Dunn]

Does any one believe it could track more east-northeastward across Florida? I think it might.

I think so too...GFDL looks** like it may have the best track across florida...I just can't see t his taking 48 hours to clear florida...

agreed. could be in for a serious situation in a couple days

[StJoe]

Of course thats another thing that will need to be watched closely as this goes Florida, the threat of tornadoes, does anyone have a rough idea how many there have been thus far?

Matt, yeah I'm not going to go quite that extreme but I think a NE motion is looking possible, I think the foward speed is more key however...

We have 2 reported here in Wellington; an equestrian clinic completely destroyed, horses ok. The other right around the corner from my house, tree fell on car and the jeep next to it flipped its hood...

Not major, but tornadoes none the less...

[KWT]

Ok cool thanks for the information.

The thing thats catching my eye is that if it get long enough offshore in the Atlantic the atmosphere looks pretty condusive for development as long as it just gets off the coast. I do agree also that the GFDL track looks best right now but its hard to say.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Of course thats another thing that will need to be watched closely as this goes Florida, the threat of tornadoes, does anyone have a rough idea how many there have been thus far?

Matt, yeah I'm not going to go quite that extreme but I think a NE motion is looking possible, I think the foward speed is more key however...

I have no idea about how many actually made it to the ground, but my weather alert radio woke me up constantly with tornado warnings last night.

~Beth~

[StJoe]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Faye is heading ene in my eyeballs...maybe its just me, but I think she's gonna be just west of Lake Okeechobee, or dead center. Amazing if she slingshots over it...