ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#9661 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:21 am

Also I don't see how she's going to make it above Okee at this rate. At the current heading she's going to skim the northern shore.

On a similar note, has any storm ever benefitted off of Lake Okeechobee?
0 likes   

Cuber
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 63
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:04 pm
Location: Plm Bch Grdns FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9662 Postby Cuber » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:22 am

Hmm The Everglades .... flat wet & warm .. lots of water ... Atlantic Ocean to the east more warm water .. can you say intensification over land ? Wilma seemed to as she came across Florida in 2005
Last edited by Cuber on Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9663 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:24 am

Cuber wrote:Hmm The Everglades .... flat wet & warm .. lots of water ... Atlantic Ocean to the east more warm water .. can you san intensification over land ? Wilma seemed to as she came across Florida in 2005


Don't know if Wilma strengthened or not as she was only on land for about 5 hours, but Katrina DEFINITELY strengthened into about a third across the peninsula.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9664 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:26 am

I would venture to say that Fay probably deepened all the way up until this point....pressure should be leveling off soon however as land will soon start weakening it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9665 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:26 am

Can someone please show me on a WV image what is supposed to send this thing back west into FL/GA????
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re:

#9666 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:30 am

fasterdisaster wrote:Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???


She sure does!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9667 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:30 am

I think Fay is going right thru Lake O. I'm no pro-met by any means, just a serious, serious enthusiasts...but after Wilma, Jeanne, Frances, blah, blah, blah, I really believe she's heading for the lake.

I mean seriously, we're talking about a storm that has gone through some of the roughest extremes...mountains in DR and Cuba, sheer in the Florida Straits...

Why would anybody bet against the odds with Fay???

Thru Lake Okeechobee and maybe even stall for a little bit to suck up some more water...

J~
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9668 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:31 am

As not a super strong system to begin with, Fay can probably maintain close to steady state. Not sure about intensification over land.


I see NE motion on radar, but I am not a trained expert.
0 likes   

Shockwave
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 167
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:33 am
Location: Lafayette, TN
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9669 Postby Shockwave » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:35 am

StJoe wrote:I think Fay is going right thru Lake O. I'm no pro-met by any means, just a serious, serious enthusiasts...but after Wilma, Jeanne, Frances, blah, blah, blah, I really believe she's heading for the lake.

I mean seriously, we're talking about a storm that has gone through some of the roughest extremes...mountains in DR and Cuba, sheer in the Florida Straits...

Why would anybody bet against the odds with Fay???

Thru Lake Okeechobee and maybe even stall for a little bit to suck up some more water...

J~


I 100% agree. Fay has gone through some extreme attacks, but has survived all of them and with her heading towards the Lake where we've seen storms before strengthen due to that affect, why wouldn't Fay do the same? This thing is LONG from over.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#9670 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:35 am

Still looks NNE over all, with some wobbles northeastward.
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9671 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:36 am

#18 - another warnig for Tornado in Eastern / Central PBC...Fay is giving us what she's got
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9672 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:36 am

fasterdisaster wrote:
Cuber wrote:Hmm The Everglades .... flat wet & warm .. lots of water ... Atlantic Ocean to the east more warm water .. can you san intensification over land ? Wilma seemed to as she came across Florida in 2005


Don't know if Wilma strengthened or not as she was only on land for about 5 hours, but Katrina DEFINITELY strengthened into about a third across the peninsula.



Per NHC report, eye became better organized per radar over land, but winds dropped from a 70 knot hurricane to a 60 knot storm. Not a huge weakening, and Fay is weaker to begin with.

I'd dare say near steady state is possible, but intensification, I'm not so sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9673 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:41 am

Back to my post about Fay going thru "roughest extremes"...

All I'm trying to say is that she has really impressed me, when other posters were knocking her out in DR and then in Cuba...I mean she's still here...

I feel like she is trying to prove herself now...She's like "OK, Dr and Cuba kicked my ass, and the sheer surely pissed me off alrite, but now that I've made it here, what makes you think I'm gonna die as a Tropical Storm?"

Gotta give her credit, if you ask me...
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#9674 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:44 am

Katrina seemed to tighten up over SFL and get stronger. Katrina had much better upper level conditions though. I think Fay probably drops down to 50mph over FL, and stays a storm until it hits the water.
0 likes   

Shockwave
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 167
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2008 7:33 am
Location: Lafayette, TN
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9675 Postby Shockwave » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:46 am

StJoe wrote:Back to my post about Fay going thru "roughest extremes"...

All I'm trying to say is that she has really impressed me, when other posters were knocking her out in DR and then in Cuba...I mean she's still here...

I feel like she is trying to prove herself now...She's like "OK, Dr and Cuba kicked my ass, and the sheer surely pissed me off alrite, but now that I've made it here, what makes you think I'm gonna die as a Tropical Storm?"

Gotta give her credit, if you ask me...


Again, I've got to agree. I see the NHC retiring this name due to all see's survived and home many extra grey hairs she made possible. I still can't believe she's keeping the models all scattered even after landfall.
0 likes   

lebron23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 389
Age: 32
Joined: Sat May 24, 2008 11:58 am
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9676 Postby lebron23 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:49 am

Landfall just south of Naples
0 likes   

User avatar
StJoe
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Age: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:55 am
Location: Wellington

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9677 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:50 am

She definetly is making the all time list, thats for sure. They will use her for future corrections to models and such.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9678 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:50 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Can someone please show me on a WV image what is supposed to send this thing back west into FL/GA????



Please???? With sugar on top. :lol:
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay Inside Florida Penninsula

#9679 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:51 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:
Cuber wrote:Hmm The Everglades .... flat wet & warm .. lots of water ... Atlantic Ocean to the east more warm water .. can you san intensification over land ? Wilma seemed to as she came across Florida in 2005


Don't know if Wilma strengthened or not as she was only on land for about 5 hours, but Katrina DEFINITELY strengthened into about a third across the peninsula.



Per NHC report, eye became better organized per radar over land, but winds dropped from a 70 knot hurricane to a 60 knot storm. Not a huge weakening, and Fay is weaker to begin with.

I'd dare say near steady state is possible, but intensification, I'm not so sure.


What was Erin then?
0 likes   

User avatar
VeniceInlet
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:12 pm
Location: Nokomis, FL

Re: Re:

#9680 Postby VeniceInlet » Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:52 am

StJoe wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Anyone else think she looks BETTER than she did when she made landfall???


Fay actually looks like a cat 1-2 at landfall right now; quite the nasty tropical storm she is. As far as getting better, not to me. She needs more outflow...she looks like she's losing her punch, but she is over the Everglades now.


Uh...what do you think made her "look like a cat 1-2 at landfall"? Especially the category 2? From the NHC:
FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY
DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE. A
DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE
BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT
MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T
MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.
Last edited by VeniceInlet on Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests