Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[caneman]

Nope, don't think so. GFDL takes it South of the Lake and Faye looks like she'll head North of the Lake. I do agree she is moving more NE than NNE though.

[caneman]

GFDL also looks like it was poorly initialized

[StJoe]

Agree with the initial, bubt I gotta tell you, I think she's gonna be south of Lake O. We are getting some real tight banding down here...she's pulling to the NE...only time will tell...

BTW, the only REAL thing I know about models is that my fingers stick to the windshields all the time and I've never really dated one...So, checkmate

[Sabanic]

Even here in Mobile they're starting to pay some attention to Fay . . .

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH WED INTO THU. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN
OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR WED THEN DECREASING BACK TO NORMAL
BY THU AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET
INTERESTING. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MOST MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT FAY WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THU IN RESPONSE TO THE
BLOCKING HIGH AND THEN BE FORCED WESTWARD. THIS REMAINS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TRACKING
DIFFICULTIES WITH FAY. AFFECTS ON OUR AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG...IF AT ALL...FAY
IS ABLE TO MOVE BACK OVER THE GULF AS SOME MODELS INDICATE. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON WHERE
FAY...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF TRACK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR FUTURE UPDATES. /13

[gtsmith]

...my fingers stick to the windshields all the time...

OK...I'm totally lost with this part of your comment. please explain.

[freeroam]

Just waking up, and had to see what Fay is doing. She is really testing the models. I also recall a few days ago she was being called alein Fay. Perhaps it was true Ya'll remember that face she had. Not that I want to see this GA hit or anywhere, but we reallllyyyy don't need her back in the gulf right now. Im gonna wait for another GFDL run.

[freeroam]

I have been a fan of yours since I stayed in Beaumont following that K girl evac. Even after that R girl had us on an evac from an evac! I sure hope this Euro is wrong. Not that I want you to be wrong. Please keep up with your info my eyeballs are peeled to the board.

New EURO is out...Basically turns west while on land parrallel to GOM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081900!!/

[Meso]

The BAMS makes me laugh, Fay going back to Cuba. (The 94l GFDL was showing the same ;p)

[PTPatrick]

Fay is just drifting at this point. I am not convinced she will exit FL on the Coast at all before coming back west. I think the steering currents are collapsing as we speak ultimately, predicting motions in the short term is likely going to proved difficult. I suspect she will just drift to around Polk county/Orlando before she starts a slow push WNW, probably around Thursday some time. Unfortunately for the NGOMERS, I cant see her making it past Ocala before turning at the rate shes going, meaning, she will likely have a little time over water.

[freeroam]

Sooo FL will deal with 5 days of RAIN OMG!!

Fay is just drifting at this point. I am not convinced she will exit FL on the Coast at all before coming back west. I think the steering currents are collapsing as we speak ultimately, predicting motions in the short term is likely going to proved difficult. I suspect she will just drift to around Polk county/Orlando before she starts a slow push WNW, probably around Thursday some time. Unfortunately for the NGOMERS, I cant see her making it past Ocala before turning at the rate shes going, meaning, she will likely have a little time over water.

[carolina_73]

Looking at the models above it seems that most are all in agreement Fay headed back to the west close to the FL/GA line. They are initialized well because it looks like Fay will indeed move just slightly due North of Lake Okeechobee. IMO I don't think she will be able to get to cane status before making her 3rd landfall as alot of the models have been showing. It will not give her much time over water to intensify. IF she does drift North after she exits Florida I suppose it could pan out. The timing will have to be just right. The 5am NHC discussion says that favorable conditions will not be in place for about another 2 days. How do you guys feel about the setup and what could happen?

[SapphireSea]

I believe Shear will be too great to see any kind of further intensification when it leaves the coast. Time will also be a factor.

[rockyman]

Fay is just drifting at this point. I am not convinced she will exit FL on the Coast at all before coming back west. I think the steering currents are collapsing as we speak ultimately, predicting motions in the short term is likely going to proved difficult. I suspect she will just drift to around Polk county/Orlando before she starts a slow push WNW, probably around Thursday some time. Unfortunately for the NGOMERS, I cant see her making it past Ocala before turning at the rate shes going, meaning, she will likely have a little time over water.

This is my concern as well. According to almost all models, the next "big turn" will be to the west....and the system is slowing down...which is often a precursor to a turn. The surface winds at the buoy south of Dauphin Island have swung around to the east...they had been from the west. There's an American flag flying above the house between me and the beach on Dauphin Island...it's been flapping to the left for the last few days indicating a west wind...now it's flapping to the right

[dixiebreeze]

The UK is certainly interesting from my perspective location.

[BreinLa]

I am not happy with the west turn at all, dangit

[Weatherfreak14]

For some reason i think the quikness of this turn maybe over done... The models seemed to over do or under do almost everything about this storm. Not complaining but i think we can rely on the models soley with this storm, it has a mind of its own.


If it comes out a strong TS off the coast of flordia i think it may turn west a bit more north, than predicted... Anyone else think the models are overdoing the sharp west turn a bit?????

[Jason_B]

The models have been too far west with this storm all along therefore I'm not buying into this sharp west turn back into the Gulf, I think it will exit Florida....strengthen a bit and then head into Georgia/South Carolina.

[Sabanic]

The models have been too far west with this storm all along therefore I'm not buying into this sharp west turn back into the Gulf, I think it will exit Florida....strengthen a bit and then head into Georgia/South Carolina.

And the reason for your thinking is . . . .

Just curious


ROLL TIDE !!!!!

[Jason_B]

The models have been too far west with this storm all along therefore I'm not buying into this sharp west turn back into the Gulf, I think it will exit Florida....strengthen a bit and then head into Georgia/South Carolina.

And the reason for your thinking is . . . .

Just curious


GO TIGERS !!!!!

Pretty sure I just gave a reason...models have been too far west with Fay.

[Sabanic]

The models have been too far west with this storm all along therefore I'm not buying into this sharp west turn back into the Gulf, I think it will exit Florida....strengthen a bit and then head into Georgia/South Carolina.

And the reason for your thinking is . . . .

Just curious


GO TIGERS !!!!!

Pretty sure I just gave a reason...models have been too far west with Fay.

Why do you say though that they have been too far west? There has to be a reason for your stating that.

Not flaming. Just curious.